Cowboys and the Aikman Efficiency Ratings - An In-Depth Look at the Season...

[Hot_Toddy]

Before I get to the game-by-game - Here's a look at the current AER Ratings for the Cowboys:

As of right now, the Cowboys have a top 5 offense per AER and have a bottom 5 defense per AER. Giving them an overall AER rank of #18 presently.

Top 5 AER Offenses to date:

Aik NFL Team AER
1 1 Broncos 100.4
2 6 Saints 88.2
3 22 Cowboys 87.7
4 4 Chargers 87.7
5 12 Seahawks 87.5

Bottom 5 AER Defenses to date:

Aik NFL
28 29 Jaguars 62.6
29 22 Commanders 62.2
30 32 Cowboys 60.5
31 31 Vikings 60.4
32 26 Falcons 58.2

Link to current Aikman Ratings: http://www.aikman.com/AikmanEfficie...an-Efficiency-Ratings-2013-as-of-Week-14.aspx
http://www.aikman.com/AikmanEfficie...an-Efficiency-Ratings-2013-as-of-Week-14.aspx

Here's the Cowboys season wins/losses I compiled from the Aikman Ratings to date. Cowboys and opponents are where they were ranked before each game. The higher ranked team usually wins the game. With this system of predicting the Cowboys games, you would have a record of 10-3 to date.

Darn, I am giving away my method for predicting Cowboys games

Note that the AER ratings become more accurate as the season progresses. I have no idea why the NFL doesn't adopt Aikman's system to rank Offense and Defense:

week 1
Giants/Cowboys **No Data/Start of Season**

week 2
Chiefs (AER Rank #1) <---Winner/AER Accurate
Cowboys (AER Rank #12)

week 3
Rams (AER Rank #17)
Cowboys (AER Rank #23) <---Winner/Cowboys upset Rams via AER

week 4
Cowboys (AER Rank #14)
Chargers (AER Rank #21) <---Winner/Chargers upset Cowboys via AER

week 5
Broncos (AER Rank #1) <---Winner/AER Accurate
Cowboys (AER Rank #16)

week 6
Cowboys (AER Rank #21) <---Winner/AER Accurate
Commanders (AER Rank #23)

week 7
Eagles (AER Rank #10)
Cowboys (AER Rank #18) <---Winner/Cowboys upset Eagles via AER

week 8
Lions (AER Rank #7) <---Winner/AER Accurate
Cowboys (AER Rank #11)

week 9
Cowboys (AER Rank #14) <---Winner/AER Accurate
Vikings (AER Rank #31)

week 10
Saints (AER Rank #9) <---Winner/AER Accurate
Cowboys (AER Rank #13)

week 11
**Bye Week**

week 12
Cowboys (AER Rank #24) <---Winner/AER Accurate
Giants (AER Rank #28)

week 13
Cowboys (AER Rank #21) <---Winner/AER Accurate
Raiders (AER Rank #24)

week 14
Bears (AER Rank #14) <---Winner/AER Accurate
Cowboys (AER Rank #18)


A Look Ahead....

week 15
Cowboys (AER Rank#18) <-----Cowboys should win per AER
Packers (AER Rank#20)

week 16 (incomplete data but Cowboys currently would win based on present AER)
Cowboys (Current AER Rank #18)
Commanders ( Current AER Rank #24)

week 17 (Incomplete Data but Cowboys better improve their Defensive efficiency to win this one. Also, we upset the Eagles earlier this season. Let's hope our Defense improves in a hurry to make the push.)

Eagles (Current AER Rank #8)
Cowboys (Current AER Rank #20)

If we can gain an extra 5 AER points on offense and 5 AER points on Defense we would be top 10. Our offense is efficient, our Defense has to gain some serious fire....And quick.

 

[foofighters]

All this says is that we can beat bad teams but when it comes to good and mediocre teams, we get beat...

 

[Picksix]

Note that the AER ratings become more accurate as the season progresses. I have no idea why the NFL doesn't adopt Aikman's system to rank Offense and Defense:

Because going by a simple stat like yards is just so much easier.

 

[Lonestar94]

All I want to know is HOW the HELL do we have a top 5 offense.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Also, we upset the Eagles earlier this season.

Not necessarily an upset. We were better and we won.

 

[Future]

Uh, any system that has the Cowboys as the third best offense in the league is not getting "more accurate as the season progresses." This offense is terrible.

 

[dstovall5]

Uh, any system that has the Cowboys as the third best offense in the league is not getting "more accurate as the season progresses." This offense is terrible.

They struggle moving th ball, but they're among the best in efficiency. Whether you agree or not, the fact is they're still one of the better offenses in the league. Though, they should be better then they currently are.

 

[Future]

They struggle moving th ball, but they're among the best in efficiency. Whether you agree or not, the fact is they're still one of the better offenses in the league. Though, they should be better then they currently are.

Efficiency is overrated. And, beyond a handful of games, the offense has been downright awful. The turnovers - and even scores - generated by our defense have hidden how inept it is all year.

Give me the 07 turnover-riddled offense over this one every time.

And I dont know how an offense can manage to score 21 or fewer points 4 or 5 times in a year and be considered efficient. The Aikman system must put a huge emphasis on not turning the ball over.

 

[foofighters]

Does this take out misleading figures like field position due to returns and turnovers?

 

[dstovall5]

Efficiency is overrated. And, beyond a handful of games, the offense has been downright awful. The turnovers - and even scores - generated by our defense have hidden how inept it is all year.

Give me the 07 turnover-riddled offense over this one every time.

And I dont know how an offense can manage to score 21 or fewer points 4 or 5 times in a year and be considered efficient. The Aikman system must put a huge emphasis on not turning the ball over.

Efficiency is huge, it's half of the equation on offense. You need to be able to move the ball well, and score TDs when you get into the RZ. Last year, we moved the ball well, but weren't efficient in the RZ.

This year we struggle moving the ball, but we're 2nd in the NFL in the RZ, which trails only DEN. By just taking into account offensive plays only, this year's offense has scored more points then last years offense, and that's even with the struggles of moving the ball.

And yes, I'd take the 07 offense as well, also, give me their defense too while we're at it.

 

[Future]

Efficiency is huge, it's half of the equation on offense. You need to be able to move the ball well, and score TDs when you get into the RZ. Last year, we moved the ball well, but weren't efficient in the RZ.

This year we struggle moving the ball, but we're 2nd in the NFL in the RZ, which trails only DEN. By just taking into account offensive plays only, this year's offense has scored more points then last years offense, and that's even with the struggles of moving the ball.

And yes, I'd take the 07 offense as well, also, give me their defense too while we're at it.

All that means is that last year's offense sucked harder. And last year, the defense never forced any turnovers to lead to easy scores.

 

[big dog cowboy]

They should be better then they currently are.

That is where the frustration stems from. Look at last week. The first series was textbook. After that we didn't look at good the rest of the game. We know and can see the potential. When we are let down we scream like the little boy in Home Alone.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Norm Hitzges is talking about this right now. He claims we've gained fewer yards than the average that defense gives up in 11 of 13 games. The only games we've gained above-average yards vs the defense we're playing were the Broncos and Rams games.

He also says we've played a large number of very weak defenses.

 

[Idgit]

Well, this tells us more of what we already know. Am I reading that right, that our ranking went from 21 to 18 after the CHI loss?

 

[Hot_Toddy]

Here's the formula which has been historically accurate. If you go back in past years of Aikman Ratings you will notice that the top 12 teams in the AER ratings are the 12 teams that make the playoffs. Normally, the teams with the most balanced AER offense and AER defense are the teams that usually represent in the SB (Exception being the 2011 Giants).

The seven categories measured are:

20% Adjusted Points -- Total Points Scored or Allowed minus Points on Returns and Safeties
20% Turnovers
20% Red Zone Efficiency -- Measured by Percent of Possible Points
10% Yards Per Play -- divided into Yards Per Rush
10% Yards Per Pass -- includes yards on plays involving sacks.
10% First Down Achievement
10% 3rd Down Conversion Percentage

Percentage of Possible Points in the Red Zone is figured by taking the number of Red Zone Chances times 7,
then dividing it by the number of Points Actually Scored (defined as TDs times 7 plus FGs times 3).

 

[Hot_Toddy]

Well, this tells us more of what we already know. Am I reading that right, that our ranking went from 21 to 18 after the CHI loss?

I should have explained that better in the OP Idgit..My bad. I based each rating of where each team was ranked before they played each other. The Cowboys before the Bears game was 18th and after the game we remained at 18. Our Offense swung up about 3 points mainly due to the redzone efficiency and our Defense sunk down about 3 points.

 

[Hot_Toddy]

Not necessarily an upset. We were better and we won.

I agree we were the better team in that game. By "upset" I simply meant the higher ranked AER team at the time was the Eagles and our Cowboys beat 'em. I think we will beat 'em again in week 17 even though they are higher in the AER as of now.

Our D-Line should be able to pressure Foles based on "QB time per attempt"...But that's another statistical based formula from BTB that I agree with and has held true as well this year.

 

[Hot_Toddy]

Efficiency is overrated. And, beyond a handful of games, the offense has been downright awful. The turnovers - and even scores - generated by our defense have hidden how inept it is all year.

Give me the 07 turnover-riddled offense over this one every time.

And I dont know how an offense can manage to score 21 or fewer points 4 or 5 times in a year and be considered efficient. The Aikman system must put a huge emphasis on not turning the ball over.

It does put 20% for not turning the ball over on offense, as well as 20% for red zone efficiency. That's 40% right there. It may not be a pretty offense but it is efficient.

With that being said, I would prefer a "go for the throat offense" between the 20's. Once we're inside the red zone, I want that portion to remain as efficient as it has been.

 

[Future]

It does put 20% for not turning the ball over on offense, as well as 20% for red zone efficiency. That's 40% right there. It may not be a pretty offense but it is efficient.

With that being said, I would prefer a "go for the throat offense" between the 20's. Once we're inside the red zone, I want that portion to remain as efficient as it has been.

That doesn't make Dallas efficient. It means they are ultra conservative and take advantage of opportunities provided by defense and special teams.

 

[Hook'em#11]

So, it's the offense that is to blame? Is this what I am reading? Please tell me I am reading some of these posts wrong.


You've gotta be kidding me... Good grief I need a drink..