Cowboys and the Aikman Efficiency Ratings - An In-Depth Look at the Season...

[percyhoward]

Here's the formula which has been historically accurate. If you go back in past years of Aikman Ratings you will notice that the top 12 teams in the AER ratings are the 12 teams that make the playoffs. Normally, the teams with the most balanced AER offense and AER defense are the teams that usually represent in the SB (Exception being the 2011 Giants).

That's a complicated formula, but if the top 12 are always playoff teams, then it seems to correlate with team success. Although, there are usually some teams that make the playoffs that aren't as good as some teams that don't.

This year, I've been tracking team success using just three differentials: pass rating, give/take, and scoring (per drive). Since 2008 (I can't find all the data for any farther back than that), there have been 37 teams that ranked in the top 12 in those 3 categories. All 37 either made the playoffs or had 10+ wins. Offensively, the Cowboys are top 6 in all three categories. It's the defense's rankings that bring the team's differential down.

It's generally true that most people overrate yards and underrate points. We're #1 in fewest turnovers and #2 in red zone TD percentage, so we'd have to be absolutely awful (as in bottom 5) yardage-wise not to be a top 10 scoring offense. Most people don't take that logic into consideration.