Cowboys defense for 2015

[Pessimist_cowboy]

It's unfortanute We won't really gain much from cutting Carr until after June . By that time there's no good free agents left .

 

[xwalker]

ok. thanks. but still with free, murray, dez, all due for new contracts. and trying to sign another cb ( if carr is let go) and adding another DT....its a tall order. lots of redoing of existing contracts.

See my post just after yours. They can create 53M in cap space and that's with a conservative estimate for the NFL cap limit at 140M. Most other estimates I've seen are higher which would be even more cap space.

The new contracts for Dez, Murray and the Restricted FAs would deduct from the 53M, but they could basically add a huge amount of salary in 2015. They're not up against a hard limit. The choice to add more salary is about how much they want to have committed in future years, it's not about the 2015 cap.

In regards to replacing Carr. They get 8M of space if he is a June 1st cut. His 1st year cap hit on 50M contract was 3.6M. They could sign another CB to a 50M deal with a 3.8M 1st year cap hit and still have 8M - 3.6M = 4.4M of extra cap space compared to the projections that show Carr on the team for 2015.

I don't expect them to restructure all contracts to the max, but as shown they can replace Carr and gain cap space and probably sign 1 expensive free agent DE.

 

[xwalker]

they can and will sign a couple free agents but they will NEVER make the moves you've described nor ever be 50M under the cap.
in fact they've never been under the cap by 50m in the history of the franchise.

tenders and tags happen on certain days(PRIOR to the season starting) that prevent Dallas from ever hitting huge cap availability.

they will restructure a few vets but likely not down to the vet minimum. Romo was restructured last year down to 1m and he is the one guy they will do for sure.
they could add a couple guys but it won't be all of them.

if they do anything with Scandrick it will involve paying him more money. Not handing him 600K to lower the cap hit....

Restructuring Scandrick is not a pay cut. They're just giving him most of this 2015 salary as a bonus before the season.

They're only going to restructure as needed. They're not going to free up 50M in space prior to signing or re-signing free agents.

The only "time" issue is the June 1st cuts. They have to wait to get that cap space, but they don't have to sign draft picks until after June 1st. Also, they don't have to account for players 52, 53 and the practice squad until after June 1st.

Signing a free agent CB will be offset by not having Carr's 8M salary.

They can sign 1 top free agent DE if they want to go that route. The first year cap hit on a 100M contract would be about 7.2M.

Summary of my suggestions:
Carr, Melton, Free are gone.
Selvie, Spencer, Hayden, Carter are gone.
Starting DTs are Crawford and Brent. Backups are a combination of Okoye, Coleman, Bishop, Whaley and draft picks. Mincey plays some DT if needed.
Mincey or DLaw move to LDE. A new free agent DE is the starter at RDE. Gardner, Boatright, Edwards and draft picks compete for the 4th game day DE spot.
All of the restricted free agents are re-signed.
Parnell is re-signed with a 2015 cap hit of 3M.
Durant is re-signed with a 2015 cap hit of 1M. He competes with Hitchens at SLB with Lee at WLB and RoMc at MLB.
Harris is re-signed with a 2015 cap hit of 1.5M.
Josh Brent has already been extended for 2015.
Sterling Moore is re-signed with a 2015 cap hit of 1.5M
Dez is franchised at 13M or his cap hit is lower with a new contract.
Murray is offered a deal at 5M per max and the 2015 cap hit is 3M.
RoMc is offered a deal at 5M per max and the 2015 cap hit is 3M.

Outside Free Agents:
Carr is replaced by a free agent CB and they gain cap space.
A top free agent DE is added at a max 2015 cap hit of 7.2M.

 

[xwalker]

It's unfortanute We won't really gain much from cutting Carr until after June . By that time there's no good free agents left .

They have to wait to get that cap space, but they don't have to sign draft picks until after June 1st. Also, they don't have to account for players 52, 53 and the practice squad until after June 1st.

They can make space by restructuring contracts and then use any extra space from June 1st cuts to roll to 2016.

 

[KingintheNorth]

This is all speculation but the Adrian Peterson situation may not come into play til mid-May so Carr's June 1st cut could be exactly how we pull that off.

Worst case scenario is you sign draft picks and use space to extend someone in last year of contract, but no matter what, Carr needs to go. No way he justifies that 2015 cap number.

 

[Bluefin]

a better estimate for the cap is 145m.
conservative is 140.
150 is considered possible but the very high end.

$145M is a good guess for what the unadjusted 2015 salary cap will be.

That's a $12M increase from this season.

Whatever the unadjusted cap number is next season, Dallas will also carryover any unsed cap room (currently $9.737M) from this season to come up with their adjusted 2015 cap number.

If the cap is $145M next year and the Cowboys carryover $5M or more from this season, their adjusted 2015 cap limit will meet or exceed $150M.

Tyron Smith may not not get his contract altered in any way. They do not want to create a situation where he costs 25m later in his career.
I agree with all the other top end restructures however.

Restructuring Tyron Smith next year and in 2016 would still leave the final three years of his contract the same ($10.5M in '21, $13.5M in '22, $13.6M in '23).

Smith only received a $10M signing bonus with his extension, that's less than half what you'd expect with such a big deal.

If Smith is restructured the next two seasons, let's say $10M and $9M get converted into signing bonuses, it would add $3.8M to his cap numbers in 2017, 2018 and 2019 and $1.8M in 2020.

His adjusted cap numbers would be:

2015: $5.039M (currently $13.039M)
2016: $6.8M (currently $12M)
2017: $15.8M (currently $12M)
2018: $15.8M (currently $12M)
2019: $13.8M (currently $10M)
2020: $11.8M (currently $10M)
2021: $10.5M (the same)
2022: $13.5M (the same)
2023: $13.6M (the same)

Even with these propsed restrurtures, Smith can be released with the June tag in 2017 or any year thereafter for cap savings.

I wouldn't be certain of Carr's deal.
Dallas took the hit with Ware last pre-June 1st.
Something will happen with Carr for sure but it's not certain what they'll do.
IF they will guarantee him a couple years at 3m I think he'd take that and stay on a good team.
Hopefully he'd play less snaps but he'd probably earn that 6m over those two seasons.

A big pay cut is certainly possible.

I included that option in my earlier post but focused on releasing Brandon Carr. He simply isn't playing well enough to be retained.

I'd rather take the $27.1M Carr is owed over the final three years of his deal and spend it on players I want to keep.

Your math looks correct but is largely meaningless due to timing.
Dallas will not get down to 113M. Too many guys to tender or tag or re-sign.

I included tendering all restricted and exclusive rights free agents along with adding some futures contracts in order to reach a true 2015 top 51. I also added a new salary to the top 51 whenever I removed a player (Doug Free, Henry Melton and Brandon Carr).

The 2015 top 51 cap number of $113.8M after making roster decisions in certainly very fluid, but that's as accurate a guess as can be made.

If Free, Melton and/or Carr return next year, that will eat up some room.

Of the three, Free is most likely, hopefully not for more than $4M each of the enxt two years I don't want to give him another signing bonus, just lower his remaining base salaries and keep the two years remaining on the cntract (Free will likely want a new deal with a signing bonus which is why I let him walk).

If Carr is kept, it would actually increase cap space because the pay cut savings would take effect immediately (likely add $4 to $5M).

In this unlikely event, Carr's savings might actually balance out or surpass what it would take to keep Free, but I'm planning on both leaving.

They are in no real threat of being over when it matters, but they will have to work out Dez, Free, Ro and Murray before they even think of looking ta other teams free agents. It's extremely likely Dez gets tagged at least short term while they negotiate.

Tagging Dez shouldn't be an issue or prevent the Cowboys from doing what they want with their other free agents and looking for some upgrades on the open market.

The team is pretty well committed to playing young guys and building internally. FA adds will probably be value looks as they dig out from past over-reliance on yearly restructures.

Agreed.

The team is commited to building the roster the right way by using the draft and value signings in free agency instead of the big splash plays hand in hand with that philosophy.

But DE needs to be addressed.

It might be a value signing or a deal like Melton's or something else.

Something needs to be done.

Sterling Moore can't be tendered like a draft pick. They have to extend him or tag him. He's totally free.

Sterling Moore was only on the roster for the final 5 games of the 2013 season.

Players need 6 games/weeks at full pay (active roster, injured reserve, PUP) in order to accrue a season of service towards becoming an unrestricted free agent.

Moore didn't get it.

I don't care what salary cap sites say, he will be a restricted free agent.

Same with Clutts and Parnell.

If Tyler Clutts returns, we need to upgrade here, it will be on a minimum deal with little to no signing bonus.

Retaining Jermey Parnell will likely come down to what happens with Doug Free. If Free accepts a new salary structure and doesn't become a free agent, Parnell will leave. If that doesn't happen, Parnell should be the cheaper option to retain.

Dallas absolutely has a boatload of free agents. They've got 18 guys who've been active for games and played real roles that are free agents. That's 1/3 of the roster.

Free agents? Yes.

Unrestricted free agents I want to keep? No.

I don't count Dez bryant because he will not be going anywhere.

I'd like to keep Rolando McClain, which will come down to compensation and contract structure. Either Doug Free or Jermey Parnell, whichever will sign cheaper prior to free agency openeing. Dwayne Harris would be nice, but he might get an offer to play more wide receiver elsewhere. And Justin Durant if he'll accept a low money deal with playing time incentives.

A few others might get minimum type offers, but they wouldn't be guaranteed making the roster again.

The team will add 7-10 rookies to the roster next year, keep a handful of their free agents and sign a handful of new guys, mainly cap friendly deals.

 

[gdogg24]

Revis would be available? Hmm

 

[Alexander]

Parnell is re-signed with a 2015 cap hit of 3M.

Of course.

 

[jterrell]

Restructuring Scandrick is not a pay cut. They're just giving him most of this 2015 salary as a bonus before the season.

They're only going to restructure as needed. They're not going to free up 50M in space prior to signing or re-signing free agents.

The only "time" issue is the June 1st cuts. They have to wait to get that cap space, but they don't have to sign draft picks until after June 1st. Also, they don't have to account for players 52, 53 and the practice squad until after June 1st.

Signing a free agent CB will be offset by not having Carr's 8M salary.

They can sign 1 top free agent DE if they want to go that route. The first year cap hit on a 100M contract would be about 7.2M.

Summary of my suggestions:
Carr, Melton, Free are gone.
Selvie, Spencer, Hayden, Carter are gone.
Starting DTs are Crawford and Brent. Backups are a combination of Okoye, Coleman, Bishop, Whaley and draft picks. Mincey plays some DT if needed.
Mincey or DLaw move to LDE. A new free agent DE is the starter at RDE. Gardner, Boatright, Edwards and draft picks compete for the 4th game day DE spot.
All of the restricted free agents are re-signed.
Parnell is re-signed with a 2015 cap hit of 3M.
Durant is re-signed with a 2015 cap hit of 1M. He competes with Hitchens at SLB with Lee at WLB and RoMc at MLB.
Harris is re-signed with a 2015 cap hit of 1.5M.
Josh Brent has already been extended for 2015.
Sterling Moore is re-signed with a 2015 cap hit of 1.5M
Dez is franchised at 13M or his cap hit is lower with a new contract.
Murray is offered a deal at 5M per max and the 2015 cap hit is 3M.
RoMc is offered a deal at 5M per max and the 2015 cap hit is 3M.

Outside Free Agents:
Carr is replaced by a free agent CB and they gain cap space.
A top free agent DE is added at a max 2015 cap hit of 7.2M.

1. Dallas won't have that much turnover on this team that has played well.
2. Durant is worth 3-5m per year, not 1.
3. Sterling Moore is worth at least 3m per year.
4. The depth DL guys you describe are camp bodies not NFL players. Put more directly they suck. Again you aren't cutting 7-9 regularly active guys and then signing 2 free agents.
5. The way to improve is keep the guys who play well and add to that not keep the guys who couldn't even get on the field.
6. You do not GAIN cap space by replacing Carr. You gain over some theoretical that doesn't exist. He will be cut and cost us a lot of money one way or the other (or restructured down to a minimal base as he has been every year), then we look at replacing him, probably with an in house but resigned Moore.
7. Scandrick wants a pay raise. IF the team calls his agent about anything that is the topic of conversation. They aren't going to bother him for a 1.5m bonus check. It's a tiny savings and basically pointless. In fact they need to find a way to pay him more and soon, not less. He's openly regarded as our best defender. Only Molly kept him from winning the CB job in camp and probably throwing a public fit for more money and an extension. It is coming to be sure.

Please do save this list and see just how far off it is come TC next year.

I agree they'd probably target CB and DE in free agency if possible but those types of signings seldom seem to work out. And this team has learned the hard way to take care of it's own first.

2015 defense best guess:
RDE: DLaw, Mincey, Rookie Draftee
1T: Brent, Hayden(whom Rod friggin loves)
3T: Crawford, McClain
SDE: Spencer OR Melton, Bargain FA, Gardner(PS or inactive mostly)

WLB: Lee, Rookie Draftee
MLB: Ro, Hitchens
SLB: Durant, Hitchens

SS: Wilcox, Heath
FS: Church, Rookie Draftee
CB: Scan, Patmon
CB: Mo, Moore
Nickel: Moore into CB with Scandrick playing the slot.
Dime: Rookie Safety enters.

I think they'll kick tires on FA DE's but those guys are expensive.
Yes, they can afford it under the cap if they desired to do so but overall guarantees and general market prices make it unlikely.
As does their desire to come at you in waves.
They are more likely to look at the draft or bargain FA, as they have done yearly.
Carr is probably willing to go down to 3m per year.
We might can do better but he knows the system and has a body capable of staying healthy at least. --if not of running fast.

Melton makes a lot of sense because he has SDE.3T flex. That's nice protection from injury.
Mincey isn't a 3T in this system. The role is too important.

 

[xwalker]

1. Dallas won't have that much turnover on this team that has played well.
2. Durant is worth 3-5m per year, not 1.
3. Sterling Moore is worth at least 3m per year.
4. The depth DL guys you describe are camp bodies not NFL players. Put more directly they suck. Again you aren't cutting 7-9 regularly active guys and then signing 2 free agents.
5. The way to improve is keep the guys who play well and add to that not keep the guys who couldn't even get on the field.
6. You do not GAIN cap space by replacing Carr. You gain over some theoretical that doesn't exist. He will be cut and cost us a lot of money one way or the other (or restructured down to a minimal base as he has been every year), then we look at replacing him, probably with an in house but resigned Moore.
7. Scandrick wants a pay raise. IF the team calls his agent about anything that is the topic of conversation. They aren't going to bother him for a 1.5m bonus check. It's a tiny savings and basically pointless. In fact they need to find a way to pay him more and soon, not less. He's openly regarded as our best defender. Only Molly kept him from winning the CB job in camp and probably throwing a public fit for more money and an extension. It is coming to be sure.

Please do save this list and see just how far off it is come TC next year.

I agree they'd probably target CB and DE in free agency if possible but those types of signings seldom seem to work out. And this team has learned the hard way to take care of it's own first.

2015 defense best guess:
RDE: DLaw, Mincey, Rookie Draftee
1T: Brent, Hayden(whom Rod friggin loves)
3T: Crawford, McClain
SDE: Spencer OR Melton, Bargain FA, Gardner(PS or inactive mostly)

WLB: Lee, Rookie Draftee
MLB: Ro, Hitchens
SLB: Durant, Hitchens

SS: Wilcox, Heath
FS: Church, Rookie Draftee
CB: Scan, Patmon
CB: Mo, Moore
Nickel: Moore into CB with Scandrick playing the slot.
Dime: Rookie Safety enters.

I think they'll kick tires on FA DE's but those guys are expensive.
Yes, they can afford it under the cap if they desired to do so but overall guarantees and general market prices make it unlikely.
As does their desire to come at you in waves.
They are more likely to look at the draft or bargain FA, as they have done yearly.
Carr is probably willing to go down to 3m per year.
We might can do better but he knows the system and has a body capable of staying healthy at least. --if not of running fast.

Melton makes a lot of sense because he has SDE.3T flex. That's nice protection from injury.
Mincey isn't a 3T in this system. The role is too important.

They've played most of the season without Brent and DLaw. That's 2 of the 8 game-day DL replaced already. I'm adding a free agent DE and a draft pick at DL or DE. Keeping Crawford and Mincey the total is now 6 DL. I'm giving T. McClain a chance to stay, so that 7 DL. I just need 1 of Okoye, Coleman, Bishop, Whaley, Gardner, Boatright, Edwards to step up and become the 8th game day DL.

They have plenty of room to restructure other contracts and maneuver under the cap prior to June 1st when they do indeed get 8M of cap space from cutting Carr. They can sign a free agent replacement. If Carr wants to take a big pay cut, then they could roll with him and make CB a priority in the draft. They need to look for one in the draft even if they replace Carr with a free agent.

They won't really need the money from restructuring Scandrick. I was just showing what they could do if needed. The Cowboys put wording in contracts that makes restructuring automatic and does not require the players approval. Restructures benefit the player even if it's only a marginal benefit.

Summary:
Decline Melton's option and sign 1 top free agent DE.
Make Carr a June 1st cut and replace him with a free agent CB.

The 8 game-day DL:
DE
Free Agent
DLaw
Mincey
Draft pick or 1 of Gardner, Boatright, Edwards

DT
Crawford
Brent
T. McClain
Draft pick or 1 of Okoye, Coleman, Bishop, Whaley

 

[big dog cowboy]

Summary:
Decline Melton's option and sign 1 top free agent DE.
Make Carr a June 1st cut and replace him with a free agent CB.

The 8 game-day DL:
DE
Free Agent
DLaw
Mincey
Draft pick or 1 of Gardner, Boatright, Edwards

DT
Crawford
Brent
T. McClain
Draft pick or 1 of Okoye, Coleman, Bishop, Whaley

That may not be exactly right but it's a pretty darn good start.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

We are 2 edge pass rushers, a defensive tackle, and 2 quality defensive backs away from having a good defense. That is way too much of a hole to fill in one offseason.

Jerry should have made one of those historically bad deals and went after Suh before trade deadline.

A last ditch effort for Romo!

 

[CrownCowboy]

Jerry should have made one of those historically bad deals and went after Suh before trade deadline.

A last ditch effort for Romo!

Nah, he should have just hired a real GM.