Cowboys Future

xwalker

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The salary cap is in great shape.

The roster is super young.

If the Pro-Dak group (which I'm in) is correct about him, then the Cowboys are in great shape going forward.

Current roster vs 2016 13-3 team:

The current Defense has more talent.

The #1 WR and #1 TE spots are a question mark. The remainder of the offense is the same or better.

The offense lost Dez and Witten; however, the end of their prime was basically 2014 for both players. Hurns has similar stats to Dez over the past 3 seasons; however, that was with far less targets. Hurns has been better on a per target basis. The current TEs are unknown so there could be a dip there. The plus is that they won't be tied to playing a TE on all snaps which could make them a little less predictible. There is potential with more speed now.

My recommendations to the team:
1: Avoid big drama. If a situation like Zeke's last season happens again, they should put all focus on limiting the drama and NOT on fighting the suspension.

2: Don't over-do it with running Dak. He is big and strong but running around in the middle of an NFL defense is a bit like running through traffic on the highway. If you do it often enough trouble will follow.

3: Error on the side of caution in regards to big contracts ( David Irving, etc.).

4: Stay with the more balanced concept at #1/#2 WR that they seem to be planning.

2014 receiving targets
  • Cowboys
    • #1 WR position 136
    • #2 WR position 66
    • #1 TE 90
  • Patriots (A Super Bowl winning season)
    • #1 WR position 134
    • #2 WR position 130
    • #1 TE 131
5: Even if they have a winning season in 2018 and 2019, if they have not won a Super Bowl then Garrett should be replaced. His contract will be up. I know people want him replaced after 2018 but if they have a winning season that won't happen with another year remaining on his contract.

6: Stay patient in regards to the roster. The concept of big trades or over spending on big free agents due to a "window" closing just causes teams to make big mistakes. The Patriots and some other really good Pro Sports teams rarely force the issue. As a GM it is better statistically to give yourself a chance every year via steady roster management than going for broke for a year or two and then having either an old roster or cap problems or both.

7: Give Tavon Austin many opportunities in the preseason to return punts. If he has any fumbles then cross him off the list as a returner.

8: Find some way to do something clever about TWill. Options:
Have him start the season on PUP.
Trade a 6th for another team's 7th if they will take him.
Trade him for a player another team is going to cut AND offer to pay part of his salary based on conditions.
Cowboys pay X amount:
Zero: Over 30 catches
2M: Less than 20 catches
3M: Less than 10 catches

9: Go all-in to make the correct decision at backup LT.
Hopefully Fleming solves the problem; however, if they need to do something radical like making Connor Williams the backup at LT then do it. If that means CW starts out as a backup and somebody else plays LG, that's OK.

10: Just sign Zack Martin. If it's 14M per then just do it. Normally I'm not a fan of paying big money to an OG but he is one of the safest players to sign AND I just don't want that question mark continuing to hover over the team. The media will keep bugging about it.

11: Be very careful if Seattle drops their price on Earl Thomas or even if they cut him. Why are they eager to trade him?

He is 29. It's great that he never missed a game in his first 6 years; however, he did miss games in 2016 and 2017. He is not a big Safety at 5-10, 202 and the years of wear and tear could be catching up with him. He appears to be very focused on money and will likely want a mega-contract that will take him to about age 34.

12: Invite me to one of the Party Bus parties...
 
I like the post in total, and I hate when people pinpoint a small detail in a large post but that's what I'm about to do.

You said the offense is the same or better from 2016 with the exception of WR and TE.
Would you agree we've had a major step back with our current situation at LG. Leary was/is a top flight LG. I could argue Free over Collins, but I won't get into that. So has there been a single position that has upgraded compared to the 2016 offensive roster?

Good work xwalk.
 
So trade TWill and a 6th to get a 7th?
Doesn’t sound like a good deal. We released better players and got nothing.
 
So trade TWill and a 6th to get a 7th?
Doesn’t sound like a good deal. We released better players and got nothing.

That's why he's saying give up an asset to get rid of a liability.

By trading a 6th you're giving up an asset for a lesser asset.
 
Earl Thomas was taken in the same draft as Dez, a player we cut due to declining skills, and Sean Lee, a player who is one injury aware from people talking about replacing him. I would be very wary about giving a big multi-year commitment to a player in the same draft class.
 
Good stuff

Disagree with a few points.....

Can't pay ZMartin 15-16m unless Tron leaves
Gallup can be WR1
Sign EThomas at any cost...... he is the difference maker
 
I like the post in total, and I hate when people pinpoint a small detail in a large post but that's what I'm about to do.

You said the offense is the same or better from 2016 with the exception of WR and TE.
Would you agree we've had a major step back with our current situation at LG. Leary was/is a top flight LG. I could argue Free over Collins, but I won't get into that. So has there been a single position that has upgraded compared to the 2016 offensive roster?

Good work xwalk.

What people forget about Leary is that basically every year he had some type of injury that affected him for several games. Yes, he was very good when 100% healthy but his play declined significantly when dealing with injuries (usually groin or back issues).

La'el originally got the LG job in 2015 because Leary missed 2 games with a groin injury, returned and performed terribly.

In 2016 Leary only started 12 games.

Maybe I'm over-rating Connor Williams relative to Leary but even considering Leary, I think improvements with some other players will offset any difference at LG.

Doug Free allowed 9 sacks in 2016.

Hanna missed 2016 and Swaim missed half of the season.

Dez missed 3 games.

Dak had a great season in 2016 but I don't believe he was a better player than he will be in 2018.

The #2 WR was TWill and he remains but there are options to beat him out now.

It's not directly a roster issue but the new WR coach appears to be a big improvement.

It comes down to the overall WR group in regards to 2016 vs 2018.

  • Dez 2016: 50 catches, 796 yards, 8 TDs
  • I would be surprised if Hurns can't beat those numbers; although he is a bit of an injury risk.
  • TWill 2016 vs TWill plus Gallup and others in 2018.
  • WR coaching. This offseason is the first time I've heard the WR coach talk about route running and acknowledge it's an area where they must improve.
 
#7 seems to be my big bug so far. Not your post, I'm just not sold on him yet despite all the hype/accolades I keep seeing.
They are not dependent on him.

He replaces Switzer who had 6 catches for 41 yards.
 
Well, there is Garrett.

To me Prescott makes or breaks the future.

If he's the Prescott of 2016 and the first half of 2017 then this team is in decent shape.

If he's the Prescott of the last half of 2017 then the Cowboys are going to need a new QB.

For the record I think Prescott will do just fine, but it's far from a sure thing.
 
The salary cap is in great shape.

The roster is super young.

If the Pro-Dak group (which I'm in) is correct about him, then the Cowboys are in great shape going forward.

Current roster vs 2016 13-3 team:

The current Defense has more talent.

The #1 WR and #1 TE spots are a question mark. The remainder of the offense is the same or better.

The offense lost Dez and Witten; however, the end of their prime was basically 2014 for both players. Hurns has similar stats to Dez over the past 3 seasons; however, that was with far less targets. Hurns has been better on a per target basis. The current TEs are unknown so there could be a dip there. The plus is that they won't be tied to playing a TE on all snaps which could make them a little less predictible. There is potential with more speed now.

My recommendations to the team:
1: Avoid big drama. If a situation like Zeke's last season happens again, they should put all focus on limiting the drama and NOT on fighting the suspension.

2: Don't over-do it with running Dak. He is big and strong but running around in the middle of an NFL defense is a bit like running through traffic on the highway. If you do it often enough trouble will follow.

3: Error on the side of caution in regards to big contracts ( David Irving, etc.).

4: Stay with the more balanced concept at #1/#2 WR that they seem to be planning.

2014 receiving targets
  • Cowboys
    • #1 WR position 136
    • #2 WR position 66
    • #1 TE 90
  • Patriots (A Super Bowl winning season)
    • #1 WR position 134
    • #2 WR position 130
    • #1 TE 131
5: Even if they have a winning season in 2018 and 2019, if they have not won a Super Bowl then Garrett should be replaced. His contract will be up. I know people want him replaced after 2018 but if they have a winning season that won't happen with another year remaining on his contract.

6: Stay patient in regards to the roster. The concept of big trades or over spending on big free agents due to a "window" closing just causes teams to make big mistakes. The Patriots and some other really good Pro Sports teams rarely force the issue. As a GM it is better statistically to give yourself a chance every year via steady roster management than going for broke for a year or two and then having either an old roster or cap problems or both.

7: Give Tavon Austin many opportunities in the preseason to return punts. If he has any fumbles then cross him off the list as a returner.

8: Find some way to do something clever about TWill. Options:
Have him start the season on PUP.
Trade a 6th for another team's 7th if they will take him.
Trade him for a player another team is going to cut AND offer to pay part of his salary based on conditions.
Cowboys pay X amount:
Zero: Over 30 catches
2M: Less than 20 catches
3M: Less than 10 catches

9: Go all-in to make the correct decision at backup LT.
Hopefully Fleming solves the problem; however, if they need to do something radical like making Connor Williams the backup at LT then do it. If that means CW starts out as a backup and somebody else plays LG, that's OK.

10: Just sign Zack Martin. If it's 14M per then just do it. Normally I'm not a fan of paying big money to an OG but he is one of the safest players to sign AND I just don't want that question mark continuing to hover over the team. The media will keep bugging about it.

11: Be very careful if Seattle drops their price on Earl Thomas or even if they cut him. Why are they eager to trade him?

He is 29. It's great that he never missed a game in his first 6 years; however, he did miss games in 2016 and 2017. He is not a big Safety at 5-10, 202 and the years of wear and tear could be catching up with him. He appears to be very focused on money and will likely want a mega-contract that will take him to about age 34.

12: Invite me to one of the Party Bus parties...


David Irving is one of the most disruptive #3 defensive tackles in the NFL...the problem is when he's on the field.

In 2017, he was suspended for the first four games of the season. He then was out for the final four games with a concussion.

In eight games, he compiled seven sacks, while on the field...

Talented, but needs to validate a new contract status. That or sign Martin and use another protected season next season.
 
What people forget about Leary is that basically every year he had some type of injury that affected him for several games. Yes, he was very good when 100% healthy but his play declined significantly when dealing with injuries (usually groin or back issues).

La'el originally got the LG job in 2015 because Leary missed 2 games with a groin injury, returned and performed terribly.

In 2016 Leary only started 12 games.

Maybe I'm over-rating Connor Williams relative to Leary but even considering Leary, I think improvements with some other players will offset any difference at LG.

Doug Free allowed 9 sacks in 2016.

Hanna missed 2016 and Swaim missed half of the season.

Dez missed 3 games.

Dak had a great season in 2016 but I don't believe he was a better player than he will be in 2018.

The #2 WR was TWill and he remains but there are options to beat him out now.

It's not directly a roster issue but the new WR coach appears to be a big improvement.

It comes down to the overall WR group in regards to 2016 vs 2018.

  • Dez 2016: 50 catches, 796 yards, 8 TDs
  • I would be surprised if Hurns can't beat those numbers; although he is a bit of an injury risk.
  • TWill 2016 vs TWill plus Gallup and others in 2018.
  • WR coaching. This offseason is the first time I've heard the WR coach talk about route running and acknowledge it's an area where they must improve.

I think as an entire forum, we don't talk about Hurns previous injury history enough. If he had incurred those injuries while on our roster, many here would be calling for his head.
 
David Irving is one of the most disruptive #3 defensive tackles in the NFL...the problem is when he's on the field.

In 2017, he was suspended for the first four games of the season. He then was out for the final four games with a concussion.

In eight games, he compiled seven sacks, while on the field...

Talented, but needs to validate a new contract status. That or sign Martin and use another protected season next season.

3-tech DT

Even a great performance in 2018 does not mean they should give him a big contract.

Some players can't handle a big contract. It's not just the money but it also makes them a top dog in the lockerroom.

I think many sane people knew in 2015 that giving Dez a mega-contract was a bad idea.
 

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