Cowboys Predictability with Weeden

[khiladi]

We're 32nd in the league in takeaways. It's not a cop-out.

I didn't say it was a cop out. I said blaming it on the defense is a cop out.

We are also 31st in offense scoring wise.

We are also 15th in the league in defense in terms of scoring, so whatever TOs we are not producing we are still soon more than an adequate job not letting them in the end zone. We don't blitz and teams are not threatened to have to keep pace with our offense..

TO differential doesn't put points on the board. Putting the ball in the end zone does.

We turn the ball over 29 times as well. They were 27th in the league in October, who knows where they are at right now.. So whatever lack of extra chances that the defense doesn't give, our offense isn't doing itself any favor by giving the ball right back even when it does get those chances.. There is no trend within the season that indicates Dallas would have scored more based on the TOs. They couldn't even get a TD when Hrdy got them an INT in the red zone. Their red zone scoring is pitiful and amongst the last in the league.

When Garrett blamed Rob Ryan for the same problem in 2012, he had two games where his offense committed 6 and 5 TOs respectively.. But yeah, that was Rob Ryan's fault that the genius didn't get enough chances on offenses..

Funny how now your blaming the TOs when you were talking yards given by defense during the days I brought up that Detroit game where the defense produced 4 TOs and our offense didn't capitalize.. Always blaming the defense, based on excuses you denied were relevant previous years..

Let's also not forget Cromartie scored twice against us on two of our offensive TOs and another TO put them in field position one yard out from the end zone.

 

[craig71]

Efficiency should be tied to scoring in reality.. Our red-zone efficiency was awful...

No doubt that they have been putrid in the red zone this season.

Being efficient goes beyond just scoring, it also correlates to a number of other things such as number of offensive possessions, number of plays ran, TOP and so forth. One of the most frustrating things to see this season IMO has been having to watch inefficient units on both sides of the ball. While the offense has sucked more often than not, the defense hasn't been very efficient in getting off the field whenever they force a third and long the entire season. It's mind boggling to see an offense struggle to convert 3rd and short and a defense stay on the field after a 3rd and 19 gets converted. There are many problems that need to be addressed this offseason, that is for certain.

Craig

 

[Idgit]

I didn't say it was a cop out. I said blaming it on the defense is a cop out.

We are also 31st in offense scoring wise.

We are also 15th in the league in defense in terms of scoring, so whatever TOs we are not producing we are still soon more than an adequate job not letting them in the end zone. We don't blitz and teams are not threatened to have to keep pace with our offense..

TO differential doesn't put points on the board. Putting the ball in the end zone does.

We turn the ball over 29 times as well. They were 27th in the league in October, who knows where they are at right now.. So whatever lack of extra chances that the defense doesn't give, our offense isn't doing itself any favor by giving the ball right back even when it does get those chances.. There is no trend within the season that indicates Dallas would have scored more based on the TOs. They couldn't even get a TD when Hrdy got them an INT in the red zone. Their red zone scoring is pitiful and amongst the last in the league.

When Garrett blamed Rob Ryan for the same problem in 2012, he had two games where his offense committed 6 and 5 TOs respectively.. But yeah, that was Rob Ryan's fault that the genius didn't get enough chances on offenses..

Funny how now your blaming the TOs when you were talking yards given by defense during the days I brought up that Detroit game where the defense produced 4 TOs and our offense didn't capitalize.. Always blaming the defense, based on excuses you denied were relevant previous years..

Let's also not forget Cromartie scored twice against us on two of our offensive TOs and another TO put them in field position one yard out from the end zone.

I acknowledged in my first post the offensive problems. And I never contested the defensive performance in terms of scoring defense, so those haymakers really aren't relevant. And, as you mention, offensive TDs agains are *huge*. Nobody ever said they weren't. But they're part of the 'poor QB play' equation that I already mentioned.

I don't remember the debate re: the DET game from however many seasons ago, but I don't see how that's relevant in this context. I can't imagine I didn't recognize the significance of 4 TOs, regardless.

The point remains the same. The offensive problems are well-established. Being last in the league in terms of takeaways is a huge issue, as well. There's no point in hiding from it. It is what it is.

And before it gets predictably miscontrued, Garrett's responsible for both, so that's not what's at issue, either.

 

[percyhoward]

Being last in the league in terms of takeaways is a huge issue, as well. There's no point in hiding from it. It is what it is.

There's no doubt that being last in the league in takeaways hurt us and led to more losses, just as all the takeaways helped us and led to more wins last year.

That said, removing takeaways from the equation, this year we're 32nd in TD % on drives that did not begin after a turnover.

Last year year we were 1st.

 

[Idgit]

There's no doubt that being last in the league in takeaways hurt us and led to more losses, just as all the takeaways helped us and led to more wins last year.

That said, removing takeaways from the equation, this year we're 32nd in TD % on drives that did not begin after a turnover.

Last year year we were 1st.

That doesn't surprise me either, unfortunately.

The takeaway problem perplexes me. It's obvious there are a number of things that contributed to it, but the extent of it surprises me. Shocks me, really.

At least I know why the offense was so bad and have some hope that that's fixable. With the takeaways, other than at Safety, I'm not sure where to start.

 

[cml750]

I acknowledged in my first post the offensive problems. And I never contested the defensive performance in terms of scoring defense, so those haymakers really aren't relevant. And, as you mention, offensive TDs agains are *huge*. Nobody ever said they weren't. But they're part of the 'poor QB play' equation that I already mentioned.

I don't remember the debate re: the DET game from however many seasons ago, but I don't see how that's relevant in this context. I can't imagine I didn't recognize the significance of 4 TOs, regardless.

The point remains the same. The offensive problems are well-established. Being last in the league in terms of takeaways is a huge issue, as well. There's no point in hiding from it. It is what it is.

And before it gets predictably miscontrued, Garrett's responsible for both, so that's not what's at issue, either.

I am not sure I can reply to this based on the new rules with this in the fan zone so I will refrain.

 

[Idgit]

I am not sure I can reply to this based on the new rules with this in the fan zone so I will refrain.

Ok.

 

[percyhoward]

The takeaway problem perplexes me. It's obvious there are a number of things that contributed to it, but the extent of it surprises me. Shocks me, really.

At least I know why the offense was so bad and have some hope that that's fixable. With the takeaways, other than at Safety, I'm not sure where to start.

Just know that only 15.7% of all scoring drives began after a takeaway. The other 84.3% didn't.

 

[gmoney112]

That doesn't surprise me either, unfortunately.

The takeaway problem perplexes me. It's obvious there are a number of things that contributed to it, but the extent of it surprises me. Shocks me, really.

At least I know why the offense was so bad and have some hope that that's fixable. With the takeaways, other than at Safety, I'm not sure where to start.

Perfect storm. A slight change in scheme, trying to take advantage of the improved pass rush, and strengths of our CB's, along with a need to limit points at the expense of takeaways due to an extremely "limited" offense.

My opinions on the offense are well noted, and the OP only reinforced the eye test. Bad QB or not, the playcalling was a liability, not a strength. And this is from a guy that thinks BW is terrible, but I digress.

Back to the defense. We've attempted to play more cover 1 this season whereas before we played more cover 3. Logic tells you that an improved pass rush, and corners better at "man" should actually improve with this scheme change. The only problem is, our pass rush wasn't *that* good, our run defense left a lot to be desired, and apparently the only players that can play the ball in our secondary have to come off the PS. You're not going to have a lot of success in cover 1 if you can't do those things and teams can just dink and dunk you.

We possibly could changed schemes back a bit if our offense could generate points, but with no offense, a mediocre secondary, and our possibly the worst safety duo in the league, we were in full risk averse mode. Desperately trying to limit points while praying for turnovers along the way. Losing Scandrick hurt a lot too, we just don't really have any players that can play zone very well at all outside Byron.

I'm confident if we attempted to run the same cover 3 we ran last year that generated takeaways, we would have gotten ran over in some of those games our offense could only generate 10 points. We might have won another here and there, maybe. Who knows.

On the flip side, if Romo was throwing the ball all over the field and we were averaging high 20 ppg, that scheme would have looked a lot better than it did as teams were forced into pressing the issue.

I do know that Rod is a good coach and has set a precedent of emphasizing turnovers. It's going to be a hot topic and I really don't think it's going to be an issue moving forward if we can get him some personnel in the secondary.

 

[Doomsay]

The OP presented very compelling evidence of offensive play calling tendencies and most of the challenges to that reality are basically obfuscations designed to give the offensive play designer / HC, cover. It really has nothing to do with the defense, pay attention.

 

[plasticman]

There was a time when opponents knew what we were going to do and it didn't matter. They couldn't stop the Cowboys anyway. This was a time when the running game would just take over, a quality back running behind an elite offensive line.

That was Tony Dorsett running behind Robert Newhouse and an offensive line consisting of Herbert Scott, Pat Donovan, John Fitzgerald and Rayfield Wright.

That was Emmitt Smith running behind Daryl Johnston and an offensive line of Mark Stepnoski, Erik Williams, Nate Newton, Kevin Gogan.

Last season we saw the Cowboys on the edge of discovering that'll type of power in an offense until Jerry Jones thought he could replace a quality back with any back.

If Weeden had the running game the Cowboys had last season then he wouldn't have just survived, he would have thrived........just like he's doing right now in Houston.

The season didn't start to derail when Romo went down, it started when Demarco Murray was disrespected by the Cowboy organization with a lowball offer that ran him out of town.

 

[SilverStarCowboy]

Weeden was never the whole problem in Dallas, and I don't think anybody ever really thought he was.

lol....yeh, that's why they let him go and traded two picks for Matt Cassel.

 

[Staubacher]

What is the stat for TDs we scored on offense after a turnover? I cannot recall a single one it seemed we always only got FGs at best after a defensive turnover. The TDs scored were when the defense actually ran the turnover into the end zone like McClain.

 

[Seven]

Seems to me the discussion should be about offensive efficiency. If you can move the ball effectively it really doesn't matter whether it is a run or pass out of a particular formation.


Craig

Cassell moved the ball efficiently.

He was scared of the end zone.


Fan.

 

[Idgit]

lol....yeh, that's why they let him go and traded two picks for Matt Cassel.

I said he wasn't the whole problem.

And we swapped a 5th for a 7th for Cassel.

 

[big dog cowboy]

If Weeden had the running game the Cowboys had last season then he wouldn't have just survived, he would have thrived........just like he's doing right now in Houston.

Thriving? Holy moly.

BTW he just got benched again. Hoyer is starting this week.

 

[plasticman]

Thriving? Holy moly.

BTW he just got benched again. Hoyer is starting this week.

C'mon, he didn't get benched. He is the backup and the starter is back.

The point is he had the ability he just didn't get any support from the team in Dallas.

Two of his three opponents were undefeated at the time. He brought the Cowboys back against the Saints but never got on the field in overtime, was that his fault?

He never played a down with Dez on the field, his lead back got cut, half the defense qaa hurt or suspended, the guy never got a fair shot here.

We just witnessed the results when he is given a fair opportunity. Again, he is the 9th ranked passer in the NFL, something we apparently discount unless we are talking about Romo being #1 last season.

 

[LatinMind]

Note: Just noticed the mis-spelling in the title, so hopefully a mod will correct it.

I found the following article regarding offenses predictability when Dallas was playing with Weeden from a Patriots fan. Although the sample set doesn't include all of his games, it's pretty telling:

http://offthemonstersports.com/2015...have-the-most-predictable-offense-in-the-nfl/

In 5 of the 10 games he's started he's been over 100 yards and had 99 this past week vs bills. If Dallas had a rb to compliment him in them 3rd and 1s goal lines runs this offense would be better. Probably would have more wins too. This team has been inside the 5 so many times this ur but had to settle for fgs.

 

[percyhoward]

Weeden is the 9th ranked passer in the NFL, something we apparently discount.

He doesn't have enough attempts to qualify, so it literally doesn't count.

 

[yimyammer]

Last season we saw the Cowboys on the edge of discovering that'll type of power in an offense until Jerry Jones thought he could replace a quality back with any back.

I hate jerry with a white hot passion but I don't believe this was jerris idea and think he was probably convinced to make this decision and acquiesced to letting him go. IMO, he tends to fall in love with players and over-pay and if not convinced otherwise, I suspect Murray would be a Cowboy.

could be wrong, I'm merely spitballing here, its just kind of an odd view coming from me considering I'm not one to give jerri the benefit of the doubt