Cowboys Predictability with Weeden

[khiladi]

Note: Just noticed the mis-spelling in the title, so hopefully a mod will correct it.

I found the following article regarding offenses predictability when Dallas was playing with Weeden from a Patriots fan. Although the sample set doesn't include all of his games, it's pretty telling:

http://offthemonstersports.com/2015...have-the-most-predictable-offense-in-the-nfl/

When Weeden is playing in the shotgun, the Cowboys pass the ball a whopping 94% of the time. I counted just three run plays out of over 50 shotgun snaps, not including a broken play where Weeden ended up scrambling.

When Weeden is directly under center, Dallas runs the ball 85% of the time. I counted just eight passes out of over 50 passes under center.[\quote]

 

[hornitosmonster]

He wasn't the answer so who cares if he won a few in Houston (I would say it was more on our defense than Weeden but whatever). They are not going to the superbowl if that is what you are thinking

 

[jazzcat22]

He wasn't the answer so who cares if he won a few in Houston (I would say it was more on our defense than Weeden but whatever). They are not going to the superbowl if that is what you are thinking

Some will just always want to find those negative nuggets [what they think are any way] to always run up every ones butts to really prove no point, but they think they are.

So Weeden wins a few games elsewhere. Wait until he throws a few picks and they lose to the Jaguars. and then same in the playoffs, if they make it. But likely will on tie breakers.

 

[khiladi]

This thread is actually about the predictability of our offense.... The fact we, for example, run from under-center that much, one can imagine how low our usage of play-action is. Teams would just have to essentially stack the lack under center and play the odds, particularly in the red-zone, where we really struggled.

 

[iceberg]

This thread is actually about the predictability of our offense....

that's what i was getting out of it. my next question would be the % under cassel. if about the same it would show a serious lack of trust in anyone but romo.

 

[khiladi]

that's what i was getting out of it. my next question would be the % under cassel. if about the same it would show a serious lack of trust in anyone but romo.

It looks like we changed a little bit in the last couple of games of Cassell, running a few more bootlegs and play-action on first, but that was more by force after Dallas was in desperation mode and very limited.. I'm sure the stats end up around the same, slightly a little more variation..

The first games of Cassell seemed to fall back to the same trends without these changes..

 

[Mr Cowboy]

that's what i was getting out of it. my next question would be the % under cassel. if about the same it would show a serious lack of trust in anyone but romo.

It's about the same for Cassel and Moore, Sturm writes about it every week.

 

[DFWJC]

I heard a discussion yesterday regarding how simple our game plans are on 1st and 2nd downs--with or without Romo.
They were saying that even Witten said the first two downs were vanilla and they relied on Romo to basically call the play and postion the offense based on the defense on 3rd downs. So, it highly stresses the QB on 3rd downs--far more than maybe it should.

If I'm pointing a finger at this year's disaster it is (in very rough order):

1) Romo injury
.
.
.
2) lack of offensive creativity/adjustment
3) lack of defensive pressure
4) Key Special teams breakdowns
5) Dez hurt basically all year
6) need for better RBs

I could squeeze lack of great backup QB in there somewhere, but I really think that with the right play calling and system, they could have won several games with the guys they had. Still would prefer a better backup anyway though.

 

[jazzcat22]

We need one of those Charts like they do with the stock market...a stock compared to S&P, NASDAQ, DOW for current, and past years.

Chart last year with Romo / Murray, runs / passes and what downs, to the left or right.
Then one this year for each of the 4 QB's in Romo, Weeden, Cassel, Moore.

For runs, passes, and yards it gained or lost. Right, left, middle.
Even a breakdown of down and distance or at least what down it was.

 

[jazzcat22]

I heard a discussion yesterday regarding how simple our game plans are on 1st and 2nd downs--with or without Romo.
They were saying that even Witten said the first two downs were vanilla and they relied on Romo to basically call the play and postion the offense based on the defense on 3rd downs. So, it highly stresses the QB on 3rd downs--far more than maybe it should.

If I'm pointing a finger at this year's disaster it is (in very rough order):

1) Romo injury
.
.
.
2) lack of offensive creativity/adjustment
3) lack of defensive pressure
4) Key Special teams breakdowns
5) Dez hurt basically all year
6) need for better RBs

I would put Dez at #2, and #3, a RB's issue, but more so that McFadden should have been the starter from day one, not Randle.

 

[craig71]

Seems to me the discussion should be about offensive efficiency. If you can move the ball effectively it really doesn't matter whether it is a run or pass out of a particular formation.


Craig

 

[Idgit]

Weeden was never the whole problem in Dallas, and I don't think anybody ever really thought he was. During his games we were missing a number of key players, including Hardy and Dez.

It was the combination of bad QB play and no takeaways that did us in with Romo out. I know what the QB issues were. I wish I had a better explanation for the lack of takeaways.

 

[khiladi]

I heard a discussion yesterday regarding how simple our game plans are on 1st and 2nd downs--with or without Romo.
They were saying that even Witten said the first two downs were vanilla and they relied on Romo to basically call the play and postion the offense based on the defense on 3rd downs. So, it highly stresses the QB on 3rd downs--far more than maybe it should.

If I'm pointing a finger at this year's disaster it is (in very rough order):

1) Romo injury
.
.
.
2) lack of offensive creativity/adjustment
3) lack of defensive pressure
4) Key Special teams breakdowns
5) Dez hurt basically all year
6) need for better RBs

I could squeeze lack of great backup QB in there somewhere, but I really think that with the right play calling and system, they could have won several games with the guys they had. Still would prefer a better backup anyway though.

I'm surprised Witten said this openly. Source?

We've always put a lot of pressure on Romo on third down, which ends up blowing up on us in the end, with Romo trying to do too much against good teams and having one of those games where he throws a lot of TOs.

I think last year, it was different because we ran the ball so well so our 3rd down and distance was probably 'more manageable' than normal.

It doesn't give you much optimism for maximizing Romo's talent. Teams are obviously going forward and even the games this year with Romo, teams seem to have adjusted better and we went back to the same tendencies of Romo bailing us out at the end.

That being said, this takeaway was from a fan of another team... So even they noticed the trend not watching us much at all.

 

[khiladi]

Seems to me the discussion should be about offensive efficiency. If you can move the ball effectively it really doesn't matter whether it is a run or pass out of a particular formation.


Craig

Efficiency should be tied to scoring in reality.. Our red-zone efficiency was awful...

 

[khiladi]

Our offense has turned the ball probably over thirty times now. so blaming the defense for not taking the ball away is kind of a cop out. We had less sacks last year and produced more TOs.

Defense isn't going to risk anything knowing the offense is not going to score or is set to hand the ball right back to the opposing team. They play to keep it close and it's a tremendous amount of pressure on the defense to ask them to bail out such poor offensive play.

 

[DFWJC]

I'm surprised Witten said this openly. Source?

We've always put a lot of pressure on Romo on third down, which ends up blowing up on us in the end, with Romo trying to do too much against good teams and having one of those games where he throws a lot of TOs.

I think last year, it was different because we ran the ball so well so our 3rd down and distance was probably 'more manageable' than normal.

It doesn't give you much optimism for maximizing Romo's talent. Teams are obviously going forward and even the games this year with Romo, teams seem to have adjusted better and we went back to the same tendencies of Romo bailing us out at the end.

That being said, this takeaway was from a fan of another team... So even they noticed the trend not watching us much at all.

It was on the radio yesterday on the The Fan--which is the Cowboy's home station. They were discussing the offense and an interview they had with Witten. Sorry, k, that's all I have for you as far as source.

 

[khiladi]

It was on the radio yesterday on the The Fan--which is the Cowboy's home station. They were discussing the offense and an interview they had with Witten. Sorry, k, that's all I have for you as far as source.

Thanks.. Wasn't doubting you..

I wanted to know what the full statement of Witten was.. If it was documented somewhere so I could read it.

 

[Idgit]

Our offense has turned the ball probably over thirty times now. so blaming the defense for not taking the ball away is kind of a cop out. We had less sacks last year and produced more TOs.

Defense isn't going to risk anything knowing the offense is not going to score or is set to hand the ball right back to the opposing team. They play to keep it close and it's a tremendous amount of pressure on the defense to ask them to bail out such poor offensive play.

We're 32nd in the league in takeaways. It's not a cop-out.

 

[DC Cowboy]

I would put Dez at #2, and #3, a RB's issue, but more so that McFadden should have been the starter from day one, not Randle.

it goes back to the last game at Texas stadium, Ray Lewis said that they knew what plays we would run. This isn't anything new. JG and Linnehan must, should, sit down over the off season and tweak this offense. Add new plays, wrinkles, and concepts.

 

[Junglist]

It's predictable with every QB.