Cowboys Stats - Rushing does help the Cowboys Win

xwalker

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In the 9 Cowboys games in 2016, the winner had more rushing yards in all 9 games.

In the 9 Cowboys games in 2016, the winner had more passing yards in 3 of 9 games.

Rushing Yards Differential Correlation to Wins: 100%

Passing Yards Differential Correlation to Wins: 33.3%

In 2014:
Rushing Yards Differential Correlation to Wins: 87.5%

Passing Yards Differential Correlation to Wins: 50%
 

ScipioCowboy

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Against Pittsburgh, I noticed the Cowboys lost both the turnover battle and the passer rating differential battle, which are two of the greatest predictors of wins and losses in the NFL.

On the Sunday night football broadcast, Rodney Harrison hypothesized the Cowboys were having success because modern teams are designed primarily to stop the pass.
 

reddyuta

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Against Pittsburgh, I noticed the Cowboys lost both the turnover battle and the passer rating differential battle, which are two of the greatest predictors of wins and losses in the NFL.

On the Sunday night football broadcast, Rodney Harrison hypothesized the Cowboys were having success because modern teams are designed primarily to stop the pass.

the giants beefed up to stop us and our running game,they know they cant win without beating us.
 

Hoov

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In the 9 Cowboys games in 2016, the winner had more rushing yards in all 9 games.

In the 9 Cowboys games in 2016, the winner had more passing yards in 3 of 9 games.

Rushing Yards Differential Correlation to Wins: 100%

Passing Yards Differential Correlation to Wins: 33.3%

In 2014:
Rushing Yards Differential Correlation to Wins: 87.5%

Passing Yards Differential Correlation to Wins: 50%
Total passing yards usually does not equate to winning very well as the teams that pass the most are usually behind.

I
 

Hoov

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Against Pittsburgh, I noticed the Cowboys lost both the turnover battle and the passer rating differential battle, which are two of the greatest predictors of wins and losses in the NFL.

On the Sunday night football broadcast, Rodney Harrison hypothesized the Cowboys were having success because modern teams are designed primarily to stop the pass.
But they won the passing efficiency formula that Adam uses. Even though Ben passed for more yards, Dak scored higher on the passing efficiency formula
 

Doomsay

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Play action is a powerful tool for Dak and he uses it to great effect. The simplistic YPA correlations don't really hold up here. Ask the Steelers if they thought our running game was irrelevant.
 

gmoney112

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But they won the passing efficiency formula that Adam uses. Even though Ben passed for more yards, Dak scored higher on the passing efficiency formula

Do you know where to get breakdowns by the Aikman Efficiency Formula? Or do you calculate it yourself?
 

Doomsay

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In the 9 Cowboys games in 2016, the winner had more rushing yards in all 9 games.

In the 9 Cowboys games in 2016, the winner had more passing yards in 3 of 9 games.

Rushing Yards Differential Correlation to Wins: 100%

Passing Yards Differential Correlation to Wins: 33.3%

In 2014:
Rushing Yards Differential Correlation to Wins: 87.5%

Passing Yards Differential Correlation to Wins: 50%

I'm not sure that the head-to-head phase metrics matter all that much (running vs. running, passing vs. passing). It's more that our strong running game complements our passing effort and visa-versa. And this leads to more points per drive than we give up, especially when we limit the time & opportunity for the opposing team to have drives by sustaining ours.
 

Kevinicus

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But they won the passing efficiency formula that Adam uses. Even though Ben passed for more yards, Dak scored higher on the passing efficiency formula

Pretty sure Ben's passing efficiency was higher.
 

JD_KaPow

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In the 9 Cowboys games in 2016, the winner had more rushing yards in all 9 games.

In the 9 Cowboys games in 2016, the winner had more passing yards in 3 of 9 games.

Rushing Yards Differential Correlation to Wins: 100%

Passing Yards Differential Correlation to Wins: 33.3%

In 2014:
Rushing Yards Differential Correlation to Wins: 87.5%

Passing Yards Differential Correlation to Wins: 50%
This is typical and says almost nothing, because the causality arrow is backwards. Teams that are losing have to stop running and pass a lot more. It's extremely common for the losing team to have more passing yards, because they're playing catch-up. And it's common for the winning team to have more rushing yards, because they're killing clock.

Passing efficiency, not volume, as AdamJT will always tell you, is what correlates best to winning.
 

Hoov

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Do you know where to get breakdowns by the Aikman Efficiency Formula? Or do you calculate it yourself?
There have been numerous discussions about passing efficiency on this board and how it correlates to winning and that the rushing stats don't correlate to winning very well. And there was a formula that was put up by the poster AdamJT. And the formula almost always shows that the team that scored higher is the winning team.

So I was actually thinking that this past game against the steelers might be an anomaly - meaning a game where the formula didn't correlate to the winning team but I couldn't remember the formula so I asked and Percy gave me the formula and actually did the calculation and Dak did have a higher passing efficiency than Ben even though Ben passed for more yards. Ill ppst the formula in my next post as im going to leave this page to go copy and paste it.

Now before anyone asks me - im not discounting the benefits of being able to run the ball and I loved watching Zeke run all over the place - pure awesomeness. Im just stating that once again this formula correlates with the winning team.

To simplify something - i would say I think that what I have seen is that ....

If you run the ball better than your opponent but the opponent but your opponent passes better than you - you will usually lose the game.
If you run the ball poorly but pass better than your opponent you will usually win the game.

But what constitutes passing the ball better ?

Some look at total passing yards. Then their are other rating systems like QB rating total QB, etc, etc. But I was referring to the passing efficiency formula Adam uses.

In addition there are a whole lot of other arguments that could be brought to the table regarding the above statement...such as the fact that if you run the ball poorly you become a one dimensional team and defenses can come after you and play defenses designed to stop the pass making it harder to pass well (though some QB's have consistently passed well without a run game like Rodgers and Manning and others). But this would be a way of saying that the run helps you pass better - though it doesn't always quite work like that.
 

Hoov

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Do you know where to get breakdowns by the Aikman Efficiency Formula? Or do you calculate it yourself?
This is the formula I was referring to..
[net yards - (50 * int)) / drop backs]

Dallas 295 / 34 = 8.67

Pittsburgh 400 / 47 = 8.51
 

Nightman

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There have been numerous discussions about passing efficiency on this board and how it correlates to winning and that the rushing stats don't correlate to winning very well. And there was a formula that was put up by the poster AdamJT. And the formula almost always shows that the team that scored higher is the winning team.

So I was actually thinking that this past game against the steelers might be an anomaly - meaning a game where the formula didn't correlate to the winning team but I couldn't remember the formula so I asked and Percy gave me the formula and actually did the calculation and Dak did have a higher passing efficiency than Ben even though Ben passed for more yards. Ill ppst the formula in my next post as im going to leave this page to go copy and paste it.

Now before anyone asks me - im not discounting the benefits of being able to run the ball and I loved watching Zeke run all over the place - pure awesomeness. Im just stating that once again this formula correlates with the winning team.

To simplify something - i would say I think that what I have seen is that ....

If you run the ball better than your opponent but the opponent but your opponent passes better than you - you will usually lose the game.
If you run the ball poorly but pass better than your opponent you will usually win the game.

But what constitutes passing the ball better ?

Some look at total passing yards. Then their are other rating systems like QB rating total QB, etc, etc. But I was referring to the passing efficiency formula Adam uses.

In addition there are a whole lot of other arguments that could be brought to the table regarding the above statement...such as the fact that if you run the ball poorly you become a one dimensional team and defenses can come after you and play defenses designed to stop the pass making it harder to pass well (though some QB's have consistently passed well without a run game like Rodgers and Manning and others). But this would be a way of saying that the run helps you pass better - though it doesn't always quite work like that.

Adam uses ANYPA- adjusted net pass yards per attempt

But even then the correlation is stiil only 80%....that means 3-4 teams every week that pass more efficiently still lose because of STs, turnover and ..........the rushing game

Yards and points don't care or know how they are gained......rushing, passing, penalty = no difference
 

percyhoward

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Passing Yards
Cowboys 295
Steelers 400

Dropbacks
Cowboys 34
Steelers 47

Passing Yards / Dropbacks
Cowboys 8.68
Steelers 8.51
 

xwalker

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This is typical and says almost nothing, because the causality arrow is backwards. Teams that are losing have to stop running and pass a lot more. It's extremely common for the losing team to have more passing yards, because they're playing catch-up. And it's common for the winning team to have more rushing yards, because they're killing clock.

Passing efficiency, not volume, as AdamJT will always tell you, is what correlates best to winning.
I just showed you 100% correlation. It does not get better than that.
 
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