Dallas Cowboys #3 in defensive ranking.
if you get a touchdown on the first possession, you have a 70.29% chance of winning. If you don't, you have a 76.38% chance of losing, regardless of whether that failure was on a missed or made field goal, forced turnover, or failed 4th down conversion. That's an enormous swing, but the reason why is pretty simple: even with a made field goal, you've now surrendered the ball and can only hope to send the game to 2OT (or get a turnover), and that only gets you a win about a third of the time - and if you miss, you're really up a creek. Getting a touchdown, and thus forcing your opponent to follow suit just to get to 2OT, on the other hand, is a huge advantage. But is it big enough to justify going for it on 4th down, where failing to convert virtually guarantees a loss?