I like Cowherd a lot. I think he often has insight that I don't. He's also interesting most of the time.
Although I think it's reasonable to take the Cowboys side of the spread, I think his reasoning was about as bad as I've heard in a long time.
- cherry picks defensive stats against the Patriots starting with the Ravens game. I mean, really. The Ravens are an anamoly this year; no team in the NFL is like them in the least.Using the Ravens game to bolster the point that the Pats defense is not really that good while ignoring defensive DVOA which indicates the Patriots are one of the all-time best defenses is just bad. BTW, DVOA is now entirely adjusted for strength of opponent and I think the Patriots are in the top 5 all time (if I remember correctly).
- comparing Dak's rushing ability with Lamar and Cam which ignoring that the Patriots are the most disciplined rush team in the NFL at keeping the QB in the pocket while not allowing him to either break through the middle or escape to the outside. They pay for it by not getting to the QB as often, but their secondary often holds up anyway.
- Saying that the 'Boys will score an (easy) late TD to give them an 11 point victory while ignoring that the Patriots this year are playing a full 60 minutes; there is no garbage time against the Pats defense even in the midst of their blowouts.
That all being said, the Pats offense is struggling both because of offensive weapons as well as an OL that has not played well. LT Wynn's return may or may not make a big difference. Yes, he's a really good player. But integrating back in after missing half the season isn't a given.
The Patriots running game has been abysmal for weeks. Again, the OL was been a significant problem but it's also because TB hasn't played as well both in reading defenses, making adjustments at the line pre-snap or throwing under pressure. Just lots of issues to correct. I can see some progress being made on some issues, but not across the board. Expect another weak offensive performance by the Pats.
The Pats 2-minute offense has been effective when it's been run - but they don't have the personnel to run it unless Dorsett is cleared for the game. Just another piece missing for them.
Finally, Cowherd predicts a "low scoring game" of 55(!) points. What??
