Dallas First round draft history

[Vintage]

Out of curiosity, here is Green Bay

1994 16 Aaron Taylor Guard Notre Dame [bb]

Jerry must have been running their draft, too.

1995 32 Craig Newsome Cornerback Arizona State [cc]

Probably a lock for the HOF

1996 27 John Michels Offensive tackle Southern California

Stud.

1997 30 Ross Verba Guard Iowa

I remember him... vaguely... so I'll leave this alone.

1998 19 Vonnie Holliday Defensive end North Carolina [dd]

Ended up being a solid player.

1999 25 Antuan Edwards Safety Clemson

Another gem.

2000 14 Bubba Franks # Tight end Miami

Great TE

2001 10 Jamal Reynolds Defensive end Florida State [ee]

Demarcus Who?

2002 20 Javon Walker # Wide receiver Florida State [ff]

Long, great career

2003 29 Nick Barnett Linebacker Oregon State

Solid player for many years

2004 25 Ahmad Carroll Cornerback Arkansas

Who wouldn't want him?

2005 24 Aaron Rodgers ‡ # Quarterback California

Fantastic pick. No sarcasm.

2006 5 A. J. Hawk # Linebacker Ohio State

Disappointing career for the fifth overall pick; this time, no sarcasm.

2007 16 Justin Harrell Defensive tackle Tennessee

Green Bay has those DL on lock.

2008 — No pick — — [gg]

No real loss given what I've seen thus far.

2009 9 B. J. Raji # Defensive tackle Boston College

I've heard fans split into two camps on him.... some who want him kept in GB. Others say his inconsistency would not be missed if he left GB.

2009 26 Clay Matthews III # Linebacker Southern California [hh]

Good pick.

2010 23 Bryan Bulaga Offensive tackle Iowa

So... rumors are he may be in the running at RT. Or LT. Or OG. They aren't sure where his best position is. Probably not a good sign....

2011 32 Derek Sherrod Offensive tackle Mississippi State

Yeah, he's been stellar, lol.

2012 28 Nick Perry Defensive end Southern California

Is this why GB is still looking for another starter opposite Matthews?

 

[MonsterD]

Jimmy Johnson's 1st round picks at Miami: Daryl Gardener, Yatil Green, John Avery, No Pick (trading down twice, out of the 1st round).

The Draft is a crapshoot, and even the best whiff. Ignoring that the Cowboys have been doing better just shows what your real intentions are.

Bingo if one more person brings up the 2009 draft possibly a top 3 worst draft of all time in the NFL, and expected us not to beat the odds, but to outright have THE BEST DRAFT IN NFL HISTORY looking at the overall talent, is ludicrous.

Here are a few things talking about data and the odds it should shock people that the majority of drafts will be out of the league in 4-5 years and the percentage of guys who are starters let alone superstars is teenie tiny.

Seriously read a few of these to see how it adds up even the psychology in drafting by teams is very flawed, not just a Jerry thing.

Walterfootball break down of 10 years in drafting high

Forbes article on draft efficiency look who is #3

Academia paper from Duke 10 year look at rosters,games played,starts, pro bowlers etc.
speicifics:

20
A. Data
Since we want to include players in every position in our analyses we report four performance statistics that that are common across all positions: probability of being on a roster (i.e., in the NFL),number of games played, number of games started,
and probability of making the Pro Bowl (a season ending “All-Star” game).
We have these data for the 1991-2002 seasons.
10
Our analysis involves all players drafted between1991 and 2002. This means that we observe different cohorts of players for different periods of time – e.g., we observe the class of 1991 for 12 seasons, but the class of 2002 for only one. While we cannot avoid this cohorting effect, meaning draft classes carry different weights in our analysis, we are not aware of any systematic bias this imparts to our analyses.
11
An additional methodological issue is how to treat players who leave the NFL. For our analysis it is important that our sample is conditioned on players who are drafted, not players who are observed in the NFL during a season. Consequently, we keep all drafted players in our data for all years, recording zeros for performance statistics for
those seasons a player is not in the NFL.
-------------------------------
Insert Table 2 about here
-------------------------------
Observations in these data are player-seasons.We have 20,874 such observations, which are summarized in Table 2. In our sample, the mean probability of making an NFL roster is 47% per year, while the probability of making the Pro Bowl is 2%
per year. The mean number of games started per season is 3.19, and the mean number of games played in per season is 6.0 (NFL teams play 16 regular season games per year. We do not include play-off games in our analysis). Panel B of Table 2 shows
how these performance measures change over time. The probability of making a roster peaks in the player’s first year (66%). Games played peaks in year 2 (mean=8.2), starts in year 4 (mean=4.2), and the probability of making the Pro Bowl in year 6 (3.9%). Recall that the sample is conditioned on the player
10
All performance data are from Stats.In
c. 1991 is the earliest season for
which the “games started” are reliable.
11
We have done similar analyses on a
sample restricted to players drafted 1991-1998, so that we observe a full five
years from all players. The
graphs are virtually identical.
21
being drafted, so these means include zeros for those players out of the league. This panel also highlights the cohort effect in our sample, with the numberof observations declining with experience. One onsequence is that our data are weighted toward players’ early years, e.g., 52% of our observations are from players’ first 4 years.


Table 2

Performance data

Performance, 1991-2002, for players drafted 1991-

2002. Observations are player seasons.

Includes players no longer in the NFL.

Panel A: Summary statistics.

Pr(Roster) Games Starts Pr(Pro Bowl)

Obs 20,874 20,874 20,874 20,874

Mean 0.47 6.00 3.19 0.02

SD 0.50 7.04 5.62 0.15

Min 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Max 1.00 16.00 16.00 1.00

Panel B: Mean performance by experience

Year Pr(Roster) Games Starts Pr(Pro Bowl) Obs

1 .661 7.420 2.256 0.004 3,114

2 0.660 8.235 3.744 0.019 2,852

3 0.592 7.599 4.112 0.024 2,606

4 0.527 6.981 4.204 0.034 2,352

5 0.466 6.233 3.943 0.037 2,099

6 0.402 5.402 3.494 0.039 1,858

7 0.342 4.724 3.279 0.038 1,618

8 0.293 3.899 2.732 0.035 1,364

9 0.226 2.989 2.083 0.023 1,115

10 0.165 2.261 1.649 0.015 893

11 0.088 1.158 0. 743 0.007 669

12 0.063 0.731 0.452 0.006 334

Article specifying 1st round picks years 2001-2011

If those trends hold up, only five or six teams will draft a player in the first round this year who ultimately lives up to his expectations.

Article and graphs on bust chances(points out we did wrong thing trading up for Claiborne-which is statistically true)

 

[Clove]

The OP brings up excellent points. Good read.

 

[DFWJC]

See above

What is your point?

I showed good picks and not so good picks with no mention of who was responsible. So again, why did you find it necessary to add blame to certain people for the bad picks only?

 

[justbob]

Thought I would drop by and remind you to stay on thread without any personal attacks.Thanks

 

[CyberB0b]

While I have been a huge Jerry basher, the first round isn't the problem. The problem is developing lower level players into contributors. The Parcells regime has been the only one able to be stubborn enough to keep guys around so they can develop. Also, it doesn't help when he packages up #1 picks and sends them to teams for bad WRs.

 

[Ratmatt]

You honestly think Jerry Jones is the ONLY reason we have one playoff win in 17 years? So the players and coaches have nothing to do with our failures?

Who picks the players and coaches?

 

[Ratmatt]

Which Jerry Jones are we talking about?
1.The Jerry Jones after Bill Parcells left.That has had some hits and misses,more misses,and has been average to mediocre.
2.The Jerry Jones after Jimmy,and before Parcells,that was awful.
3.The Jerry Jones combined.Not much to talk about.

 

[respectdatstar]

I would say the Joey Galloway and Roy Williams trades hurt us more than our first round bang/bust history.

 

[perrykemp]

Out of curiosity, here is Green Bay

2008 — No pick — — [gg]

No real loss given what I've seen thus far.

You are right. The Packers have had average, at best, success in the 1st round of the NFL draft -- no better than the Cowboys IMHO.

Where they've made up for it, however, is the later rounds. Take 2008 for example where they didn't have a 1st round pick. In later rounds they took:

2nd - Jordy Nelson - 20 TDs in the past two seasons
3rd- Jermichael Finley - Pretty good TE
4th - Josh Sitton - Considered one of the top guards in the NFC
5th - Breno Giacomini - Starting RT for the Seahawks
7th - Matt Flynn - Pretty good backup QB.