JonCJG
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from a Commander's point of view.
http://mvn.com/nfl-Commanders/2008/06/17/Commanders-vs-cowboys-breakdown/
An idea that Rob Calonge is having fun with at MVN’s Raiders blog, Thoughts from the Dark Side, is a position by position matchup idea with the Raiders’ opponents in the AFC West.
For the Commanders, it will be critical how well they play against their own division. Arguably the three or four toughest games on the schedule are all in the division, and the best way — the ONLY way the Commanders can be competitive in the NFC East this year — is to do better than expected in divisional games. The Commanders will be required to play above their talent level in these games, something that will not be an easy task.
Calonge uses a quantitative points system to see just where the Raiders rank amongst their divison, but I won’t get quite so scientific. I’ll just examine the key matchups, and pick a winner at the end.
Matchup #1: Jason Campbell vs. Terrence Newman, Anthony Henry, and Pac Man Jones
The Quarterbacks are going to get matched up against the corners in this one for one big reason: the only factor we know that alters a QB’s chance of success is the strength of the opposing corners. Conventional wisdom would probably match the receivers and corners, but research shows that receivers earn a majority of their value after the catch: once the pass is completed and the corner is irrelivant. Therefore, it makes the most sense to match up Quarter- and Corner-backs to see which team has the advantage with the pass.
Dallas struggled in pass d last year, in part because a lack of top end speed at the safety position, but mainly because they didn’t have anyone to play across from Terrence Newman. Enter the Pac Man. One would think Pac Man immediately bolsters the Cowboys pass D, but history suggests that his time away from football will make him a short term liability. In the future, this looks like a fearsome unit for the Cowboys, as Jones gets back into things, and first rounder Mike Jenkins develops.
Right now, there’s a big advantage for Jason Campbell and the Commanders here.
Matchup #2: Tony Romo vs. Shawn Springs, Fred Smoot, and Carlos Rogers
When healthy, there is no doubt that the Commanders have great depth at corner. Of course, when a unit isn’t healthy, like this one is, depth becomes a pipe dream.
Tony Romo is a guy who likes to buy time in the pocket and use all his receivers. You can bet if there is a weakness in the Commanders secondary: maybe Smoot bites on a pump, or Rogers gets beat off the line, or rookie Justin Tryon is matched up on Terrell Owens in the slot — Romo is going to take advantage of it.
This is a sizable advantage for the Dallas Cowboys.
Matchup #3: Clinton Portis vs. Bradie James, DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, and Zach Thomas
Portis has never done real well against Dallas in his career. In 7 career games against the Cowboys, Portis has hit 100 yards just twice. His best game in the series came in the 35-7 massacre of Dallas at FedEx Field back in 2005.
Portis seems to disappear in most of the games. 4 times in this series, Portis has failed to run for 4 YPC in the game. Credit the Dallas Linebackers for chasing Portis down all over the field in the past.
There is no reason to think this trend will stop here. Advantage Cowboys.
Matchup #4: Marion Barber vs. Marcus Washington, London Fletcher, and Rocky McIntosh
The Commanders defense had one thing going for it all year in 2007: they simply would not allow long runs. Marion Barber does many, many things very, very well, but if there’s a knock on him, it’s that he doesn’t break the long run.
In 5 games against Washington, Marion Barber has never seen more than 10 carries, and has never rushed for more than 50 yards. He’s done alright, save the last game of last year when he lost six yards in as many carries.
This is a projection for the most part; Barber should have no big issue grinding out gains against the Commanders run defense, which is good for the Cowboys, but the propensity of the Commanders to stop the big play means that Barber won’t explode against the Commanders.
No real advantage in this one.
Matchup #5: Santana Moss, Malcolm Kelly, and Antwaan Randle El vs. Roy Williams and Ken Hamlin
For years now, the Commanders’ receivers have exceled in making yards after the catch. In recent years, that production has been down ever so slightly with injuries to Randle El and Moss.
Keep in mind though who the competition is here. Roy Williams has a lot to prove this season, as his honeymoon as the favored safety of Madden Fanboys is really a thing of the past. Even the most fickle member of the media realizes that Williams’ coverage skills are lacking at best. Hamlin is a lot better in coverage, but he’s a strong safety only by necessity, neither can really stay with Moss or Randle El should Jason Campbell put the ball on the money.
In no small part to the advantage that Campbell gives his receivers over the Dallas corners, the receivers have a sizable edge against the Dallas safeties, especially in the open field.
Matchup #6: Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, and Terry Glenn vs. LaRon Landry and Reed Doughty
Owens has been somewhat of a workhorse for the Cowboys since he signed two years ago, but Crayton was inconsistent last year and Glenn was injured throughout last season.
On the other side of the ball, Landry is one of the best young safeties in the game today. Owens may get the publicity, but his experience gives him no decisive edge in the open field against Landry’s athleticism. The same goes for Crayton and Glenn: these guys really don’t have what it takes to get open deep, and or turn small completions into big games against Landry. If the Cowboys can isolate Doughty, and get Landry out of the play, this is another story, but whether that can be done remains to be seen.
Advantage Commanders.
Matchup #7: Chris Cooley and Mike Sellers vs. James, Thomas, and Williams
Cooley and Sellers are the creme de la creme at their respective positions in the NFC. Cooley is absolutely uncoverable, and is a load after the catch. Where this matchup gets interesting is in the run blocking game. Cooley is totally capable of blocking Williams on a running play, but may struggle to handle Zach Thomas or Bradie James. Sellers is certainly strong enough to block those guys against the run, but lacks Cooley’s feet in pass blocking, and is a liability against a blitz.
For their skill in the passing game, the Commanders get a small, tiny edge.
Matchup # 8: Jason Witten and Martellius Bennett vs. Washington, Fletcher, and Doughty
The Commanders have the players to cover the tight end: but Jason Witten is no normal tight end. Witten might be the best receiving tight end in the NFC. Doughty can’t handle him for sure. If he’s lined up tight, Washington can get a jam on him, but if he’s in the slot, Washington can’t handle him. If he goes down the middle of the field, London Fletcher is excellent at covering that area, but even he can’t prevent a great deep post from Romo to Witten.
Bennett is a great receiving TE prospect, and though the Commanders can handle his skill set if he were the only tight end, as long as Witten is on the field, the Commanders probably won’t be able to match up with Bennett either.
Huge advantage to Dallas.
Matchup #9: Randy Thomas and Casey Rabach vs. Tank Johnson and Chris Canty
Johnson is probably too undersized to be a true nose tackle, but he’s very quick and probably all that Casey Rabach can handle. Rabach will get help from Pete Kendall against Johnson when there is no blitz, but that will leave Chris Canty one on one with Randy Thomas.
As good as Canty is, a healthy Thomas can do more than neutralize him. Canty, a 300 lb end, might be a load to move in the run game, but the Commanders can get him moving backwards using a double team scrape technique.
No advantage here, and that’s arguably a win for the Commanders.
Matchup #10: Leonard Davis vs. Cornelius Griffin
The maturation of Anthony means one thing for Corneilius Griffin: more single teams.
That’s a good thing, but Leonard Davis had a heck of a year last year, and Griffin usually finds himself banged up early in the year. Maybe a healthy Griffin gets the edge in this matchup, but that’s an assumption I can’t make in good faith.
Advantage Cowboys.
Matchup #11: Chris Samuels and Jon Jansen vs. Marcus Spears, Ware, and Spencer
When Samuels and Jansen are both on the field, the Commanders seem to have no trouble at all protecting their passer. DeMarcus Ware is an elite pass rusher in this league, and gives Samuels everything he can handle every time they meet, but because Samuels is good enough to nullify his pass rush, Dallas often leaves him in coverage against the Commanders.
Spears is not a serious pass rushing threat, and can be handled easily. Spencer is still an unknown, and could provide Dallas the edge in this matchup if he can break out.
Until then, the Commanders hold a small advantage.
Matchup #12: Flozell Adams and Marc Columbo vs. Andre Carter and Phillip Daniels
Carter is coming off a great year, but so is Adams. Both, at one point, were thought to be busts, and nowadays, both players dominate their mediocre competition.
Columbo has been less than stellar in his career, and Phillip Daniels can still bring the pass rush, though he lacks the explosiveness to sack the passer consistently.
There is no distinct edge here.
Commanders/Cowboys Final Verdict
Since there was no particular advantage on either line, those easy turnovers: the bad decisions forced by immense pressure, the sack strips that change football games, really aren’t more likely to occur to one team than the other. Both teams should have immense success throwing the football against each other, especially in the middle of the field.
The Cowboys will have more success in these matchups if they stay patient and try to grind out the Commanders. Meanwhile, the Commanders will have the best chance to win if they get the ball to their playmakers in the open field, and let them turn big throws by Jason Campbell into spectacular touchdowns.
In football, the team that executes more consistently generally has an advantage. There is no doubt in my mind that when these teams meet in Dallas, that consistency advantage is held by the Dallas Cowboys. Clinton Portis always struggles in Dallas, and Marion Barber has the potential to run right at London Fletcher for 5 yard chunks of yardage.
Because of the dominance of the Commanders’ passing game at home, this series seems destined for a split. I just don’t think the Cowboys’ defense is capable of keeping the Commanders off the scoreboard.
At home, I predict that the Commanders will beat the Cowboys at FedEx Field for the fourth straight year, on the road, the Commanders are probably in for a little tougher of a time. Unless Portis can get going on the ground, the Skins could be in for their 3rd straight defeat at Texas Stadium.
:skins:
http://mvn.com/nfl-Commanders/2008/06/17/Commanders-vs-cowboys-breakdown/
An idea that Rob Calonge is having fun with at MVN’s Raiders blog, Thoughts from the Dark Side, is a position by position matchup idea with the Raiders’ opponents in the AFC West.
For the Commanders, it will be critical how well they play against their own division. Arguably the three or four toughest games on the schedule are all in the division, and the best way — the ONLY way the Commanders can be competitive in the NFC East this year — is to do better than expected in divisional games. The Commanders will be required to play above their talent level in these games, something that will not be an easy task.
Calonge uses a quantitative points system to see just where the Raiders rank amongst their divison, but I won’t get quite so scientific. I’ll just examine the key matchups, and pick a winner at the end.
Matchup #1: Jason Campbell vs. Terrence Newman, Anthony Henry, and Pac Man Jones
The Quarterbacks are going to get matched up against the corners in this one for one big reason: the only factor we know that alters a QB’s chance of success is the strength of the opposing corners. Conventional wisdom would probably match the receivers and corners, but research shows that receivers earn a majority of their value after the catch: once the pass is completed and the corner is irrelivant. Therefore, it makes the most sense to match up Quarter- and Corner-backs to see which team has the advantage with the pass.
Dallas struggled in pass d last year, in part because a lack of top end speed at the safety position, but mainly because they didn’t have anyone to play across from Terrence Newman. Enter the Pac Man. One would think Pac Man immediately bolsters the Cowboys pass D, but history suggests that his time away from football will make him a short term liability. In the future, this looks like a fearsome unit for the Cowboys, as Jones gets back into things, and first rounder Mike Jenkins develops.
Right now, there’s a big advantage for Jason Campbell and the Commanders here.
Matchup #2: Tony Romo vs. Shawn Springs, Fred Smoot, and Carlos Rogers
When healthy, there is no doubt that the Commanders have great depth at corner. Of course, when a unit isn’t healthy, like this one is, depth becomes a pipe dream.
Tony Romo is a guy who likes to buy time in the pocket and use all his receivers. You can bet if there is a weakness in the Commanders secondary: maybe Smoot bites on a pump, or Rogers gets beat off the line, or rookie Justin Tryon is matched up on Terrell Owens in the slot — Romo is going to take advantage of it.
This is a sizable advantage for the Dallas Cowboys.
Matchup #3: Clinton Portis vs. Bradie James, DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, and Zach Thomas
Portis has never done real well against Dallas in his career. In 7 career games against the Cowboys, Portis has hit 100 yards just twice. His best game in the series came in the 35-7 massacre of Dallas at FedEx Field back in 2005.
Portis seems to disappear in most of the games. 4 times in this series, Portis has failed to run for 4 YPC in the game. Credit the Dallas Linebackers for chasing Portis down all over the field in the past.
There is no reason to think this trend will stop here. Advantage Cowboys.
Matchup #4: Marion Barber vs. Marcus Washington, London Fletcher, and Rocky McIntosh
The Commanders defense had one thing going for it all year in 2007: they simply would not allow long runs. Marion Barber does many, many things very, very well, but if there’s a knock on him, it’s that he doesn’t break the long run.
In 5 games against Washington, Marion Barber has never seen more than 10 carries, and has never rushed for more than 50 yards. He’s done alright, save the last game of last year when he lost six yards in as many carries.
This is a projection for the most part; Barber should have no big issue grinding out gains against the Commanders run defense, which is good for the Cowboys, but the propensity of the Commanders to stop the big play means that Barber won’t explode against the Commanders.
No real advantage in this one.
Matchup #5: Santana Moss, Malcolm Kelly, and Antwaan Randle El vs. Roy Williams and Ken Hamlin
For years now, the Commanders’ receivers have exceled in making yards after the catch. In recent years, that production has been down ever so slightly with injuries to Randle El and Moss.
Keep in mind though who the competition is here. Roy Williams has a lot to prove this season, as his honeymoon as the favored safety of Madden Fanboys is really a thing of the past. Even the most fickle member of the media realizes that Williams’ coverage skills are lacking at best. Hamlin is a lot better in coverage, but he’s a strong safety only by necessity, neither can really stay with Moss or Randle El should Jason Campbell put the ball on the money.
In no small part to the advantage that Campbell gives his receivers over the Dallas corners, the receivers have a sizable edge against the Dallas safeties, especially in the open field.
Matchup #6: Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, and Terry Glenn vs. LaRon Landry and Reed Doughty
Owens has been somewhat of a workhorse for the Cowboys since he signed two years ago, but Crayton was inconsistent last year and Glenn was injured throughout last season.
On the other side of the ball, Landry is one of the best young safeties in the game today. Owens may get the publicity, but his experience gives him no decisive edge in the open field against Landry’s athleticism. The same goes for Crayton and Glenn: these guys really don’t have what it takes to get open deep, and or turn small completions into big games against Landry. If the Cowboys can isolate Doughty, and get Landry out of the play, this is another story, but whether that can be done remains to be seen.
Advantage Commanders.
Matchup #7: Chris Cooley and Mike Sellers vs. James, Thomas, and Williams
Cooley and Sellers are the creme de la creme at their respective positions in the NFC. Cooley is absolutely uncoverable, and is a load after the catch. Where this matchup gets interesting is in the run blocking game. Cooley is totally capable of blocking Williams on a running play, but may struggle to handle Zach Thomas or Bradie James. Sellers is certainly strong enough to block those guys against the run, but lacks Cooley’s feet in pass blocking, and is a liability against a blitz.
For their skill in the passing game, the Commanders get a small, tiny edge.
Matchup # 8: Jason Witten and Martellius Bennett vs. Washington, Fletcher, and Doughty
The Commanders have the players to cover the tight end: but Jason Witten is no normal tight end. Witten might be the best receiving tight end in the NFC. Doughty can’t handle him for sure. If he’s lined up tight, Washington can get a jam on him, but if he’s in the slot, Washington can’t handle him. If he goes down the middle of the field, London Fletcher is excellent at covering that area, but even he can’t prevent a great deep post from Romo to Witten.
Bennett is a great receiving TE prospect, and though the Commanders can handle his skill set if he were the only tight end, as long as Witten is on the field, the Commanders probably won’t be able to match up with Bennett either.
Huge advantage to Dallas.
Matchup #9: Randy Thomas and Casey Rabach vs. Tank Johnson and Chris Canty
Johnson is probably too undersized to be a true nose tackle, but he’s very quick and probably all that Casey Rabach can handle. Rabach will get help from Pete Kendall against Johnson when there is no blitz, but that will leave Chris Canty one on one with Randy Thomas.
As good as Canty is, a healthy Thomas can do more than neutralize him. Canty, a 300 lb end, might be a load to move in the run game, but the Commanders can get him moving backwards using a double team scrape technique.
No advantage here, and that’s arguably a win for the Commanders.
Matchup #10: Leonard Davis vs. Cornelius Griffin
The maturation of Anthony means one thing for Corneilius Griffin: more single teams.
That’s a good thing, but Leonard Davis had a heck of a year last year, and Griffin usually finds himself banged up early in the year. Maybe a healthy Griffin gets the edge in this matchup, but that’s an assumption I can’t make in good faith.
Advantage Cowboys.
Matchup #11: Chris Samuels and Jon Jansen vs. Marcus Spears, Ware, and Spencer
When Samuels and Jansen are both on the field, the Commanders seem to have no trouble at all protecting their passer. DeMarcus Ware is an elite pass rusher in this league, and gives Samuels everything he can handle every time they meet, but because Samuels is good enough to nullify his pass rush, Dallas often leaves him in coverage against the Commanders.
Spears is not a serious pass rushing threat, and can be handled easily. Spencer is still an unknown, and could provide Dallas the edge in this matchup if he can break out.
Until then, the Commanders hold a small advantage.
Matchup #12: Flozell Adams and Marc Columbo vs. Andre Carter and Phillip Daniels
Carter is coming off a great year, but so is Adams. Both, at one point, were thought to be busts, and nowadays, both players dominate their mediocre competition.
Columbo has been less than stellar in his career, and Phillip Daniels can still bring the pass rush, though he lacks the explosiveness to sack the passer consistently.
There is no distinct edge here.
Commanders/Cowboys Final Verdict
Since there was no particular advantage on either line, those easy turnovers: the bad decisions forced by immense pressure, the sack strips that change football games, really aren’t more likely to occur to one team than the other. Both teams should have immense success throwing the football against each other, especially in the middle of the field.
The Cowboys will have more success in these matchups if they stay patient and try to grind out the Commanders. Meanwhile, the Commanders will have the best chance to win if they get the ball to their playmakers in the open field, and let them turn big throws by Jason Campbell into spectacular touchdowns.
In football, the team that executes more consistently generally has an advantage. There is no doubt in my mind that when these teams meet in Dallas, that consistency advantage is held by the Dallas Cowboys. Clinton Portis always struggles in Dallas, and Marion Barber has the potential to run right at London Fletcher for 5 yard chunks of yardage.
Because of the dominance of the Commanders’ passing game at home, this series seems destined for a split. I just don’t think the Cowboys’ defense is capable of keeping the Commanders off the scoreboard.
At home, I predict that the Commanders will beat the Cowboys at FedEx Field for the fourth straight year, on the road, the Commanders are probably in for a little tougher of a time. Unless Portis can get going on the ground, the Skins could be in for their 3rd straight defeat at Texas Stadium.
:skins:
yeah we saw in the one game the actually mattered last season what a huge advantage this was/is
