Dangerous Assumptions

[Bobhaze]

One of the biggest traps that often seem to trip up the Cowboys FO, and of course many of us fans, is making the dangerous assumption that when a young player gives you a really good/promising year, you can now count on that player giving you at least 4-5 more years at that level or higher. Our recent history is littered with guys Jerry fell in love with in the present, and assumed it would last many seasons.

Player evaluation never stops. The best GMs in this league are always evaluating their rosters with a cold heart. They literally look at every player and ask, “Has this guy peaked? How much real upside does this guy have? Have we already seen his best? Would we be better served not resigning this guy even though he’s been good lately?”

Truth is, you can never rest when it comes to player evaluation. That is what has made Bill Belichick the absolute best in player evaluation. He’s a cold hearted sob when it comes to looking at his roster. He’s cut guys like Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Wes Welker, Mike Vrabel, Deon Branch (a SB MVP), and Richard Seymour to name a few. All were All-Pro, top notch players, but B.B. saw they had all peaked, and that cutting them even a little early was better than over paying them at the time they began to decline.

IMO, this is what has killed Jerry as a GM. Jerry, to his credit, is a very kind soul. He loves his family and his team like a father. And that’s a good thing....except when it comes to player evaluation.

Dez Bryant is probably the best current example. We signed him to a big deal at the peak of his production. Three years later, though being paid as a top 5 receiver, his performance has been top 20 at best.

Hind sight is always 20/20. But good FO’s are able to look past the hype and avoid the dangerous assumption that a really good player is surely going to give us 5 more years like the past 5. That’s always an assumption you better think long and hard about.

 

[armadillooutlaw]

Good thoughts. It's always better to be a step early than a step late. Especially with player personnel.

 

[Bobhaze]

Good thoughts. It's always better to be a step early than a step late. Especially with player personnel.

This is the time of year when these kind of decisions are being made. Roster evaluation can make or break you.

 

[northerncowboynation]

I think the style has changed a bit over the past few years Bob. Not totally but a bit. D Ware was allowed to walk. He was a hero and Jones family guy here. Murray as well, not to the extent of Ware maybe. Then last year Carr who was a team guy and an organization guy. Yes both Romo and Dez were a bit insane but no one can forecast the future. Dez was a top 5 WR when he signed his contract. Romo was still just on surgery #1 or 2. I forget because he had so many. More stitches than an NFL pigskin. Crawford, big contract, but everyone agreed including most fans that his arrow was pointing up.

This is what will happen with Dez IMO. His contract will be extended and that is the same old way. Creative accounting. His cap hit reduced in 2018. You and I can predict that coming with a certain degree of accuracy. Not saying JJ the GM shouldn't be more like Bellichic the GM, ruthless!!

 

[northerncowboynation]

So here is another for you Bob, Cooper. Serviceable when he lines up between an all pro LT and C. Where do you go with him Bob? Do you go first round pick on a G or do you stick with JAG but an ok guy between Tyron and Freddy. We love to pick on Dez and decisions made by our GM. Here's your chance. Put your GM hat on!!

 

[big dog cowboy]

But good FO’s are able to look past the hype and avoid the dangerous assumption that a really good player is surely going to give us 5 more years like the past 5. That’s always an assumption you better think long and hard about.

Carr, Mo, Romo, DWare and Murray off the top of my head. Big dollar guys who were suddenly gone. I'm sure there are others.

 

[Bobhaze]

So here is another for you Bob, Cooper. Serviceable when he lines up between an all pro LT and C. Where do you go with him Bob? Do you go first round pick on a G or do you stick with JAG but an ok guy between Tyron and Freddy. We love to pick on Dez and decisions made by our GM. Here's your chance. Put your GM hat on!!

Good question NC. I’m not at all sold on Jonathan Cooper. He would be an excellent swing backup G. As a starter that we commit big money to...not that keen on it.

 

[Bobhaze]

Carr, Mo, Romo, DWare and Murray off the top of my head. Big dollar guys who were suddenly gone. I'm sure there are others.

Good point. For sure we have gotten better in recent years. I was in favor of all of those releases- even Ware. The key is being to accurately predict who has peaked and who is still developingor has upside. You’re always going to miss on some guys but hopefully be right on most.

 

[Carson]

Good question NC. I’m not at all sold on Jonathan Cooper. He would be an excellent swing backup G. As a starter that we commit big money to...not that keen on it.

IMO, he can benefit from a healthy camp and being the starter.

He was banged up last camp and went back and forth.

Now an eventual replacement is needed. But much rather spend a first elsewhere

 

[Bobhaze]

IMO, he can benefit from a healthy camp and being the starter.

He was banged up last camp and went back and forth.

Now an eventual replacement is needed. But much rather spend a first elsewhere

Yeah I think he has value. Just not much beyond being your 3rd best G. And that doesn’t mean you have to draft a G in round one either. There are plenty of really good linemen in rounds 3-4.

 

[birdwells1]

One of the biggest traps that often seem to trip up the Cowboys FO, and of course many of us fans, is making the dangerous assumption that when a young player gives you a really good/promising year, you can now count on that player giving you at least 4-5 more years at that level or higher. Our recent history is littered with guys Jerry fell in love with in the present, and assumed it would last many seasons.

Player evaluation never stops. The best GMs in this league are always evaluating their rosters with a cold heart. They literally look at every player and ask, “Has this guy peaked? How much real upside does this guy have? Have we already seen his best? Would we be better served not resigning this guy even though he’s been good lately?”

Truth is, you can never rest when it comes to player evaluation. That is what has made Bill Belichick the absolute best in player evaluation. He’s a cold hearted sob when it comes to looking at his roster. He’s cut guys like Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Wes Welker, Mike Vrabel, Deon Branch (a SB MVP), and Richard Seymour to name a few. All were All-Pro, top notch players, but B.B. saw they had all peaked, and that cutting them even a little early was better than over paying them at the time they began to decline.

IMO, this is what has killed Jerry as a GM. Jerry, to his credit, is a very kind soul. He loves his family and his team like a father. And that’s a good thing....except when it comes to player evaluation.

Dez Bryant is probably the best current example. We signed him to a big deal at the peak of his production. Three years later, though being paid as a top 5 receiver, his performance has been top 20 at best.

Hind sight is always 20/20. But good FO’s are able to look past the hype and avoid the dangerous assumption that a really good player is surely going to give us 5 more years like the past 5. That’s always an assumption you better think long and hard about.

I totally agree with the first part with our young player, if they show any glimmer of promise then they want to pencil them in for the next five years are so. Anthony Brown and Dak Prescott are the latest examples of this from the 2016 draft.

 

[CF74]

Following that sentiment we should have parted ways with Witten 3-5 years ago amongst others...

 

[Bobhaze]

Following that sentiment we should have parted ways with Witten 3-5 years ago amongst others...

Very few players are Witten quality.

 

[Carson]

Following that sentiment we should have parted ways with Witten 3-5 years ago amongst others...

He still has value on this team. It just needs to be in a smaller capacity. Limited snaps and teaching his eventual replacement.

 

[visionary]

One of the biggest traps that often seem to trip up the Cowboys FO, and of course many of us fans, is making the dangerous assumption that when a young player gives you a really good/promising year, you can now count on that player giving you at least 4-5 more years at that level or higher. Our recent history is littered with guys Jerry fell in love with in the present, and assumed it would last many seasons.

Player evaluation never stops. The best GMs in this league are always evaluating their rosters with a cold heart. They literally look at every player and ask, “Has this guy peaked? How much real upside does this guy have? Have we already seen his best? Would we be better served not resigning this guy even though he’s been good lately?”

Truth is, you can never rest when it comes to player evaluation. That is what has made Bill Belichick the absolute best in player evaluation. He’s a cold hearted sob when it comes to looking at his roster. He’s cut guys like Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Wes Welker, Mike Vrabel, Deon Branch (a SB MVP), and Richard Seymour to name a few. All were All-Pro, top notch players, but B.B. saw they had all peaked, and that cutting them even a little early was better than over paying them at the time they began to decline.

IMO, this is what has killed Jerry as a GM. Jerry, to his credit, is a very kind soul. He loves his family and his team like a father. And that’s a good thing....except when it comes to player evaluation.

Dez Bryant is probably the best current example. We signed him to a big deal at the peak of his production. Three years later, though being paid as a top 5 receiver, his performance has been top 20 at best.

Hind sight is always 20/20. But good FO’s are able to look past the hype and avoid the dangerous assumption that a really good player is surely going to give us 5 more years like the past 5. That’s always an assumption you better think long and hard about.

Great post but here is the issue
To be able to know who has peaked or who should be extended, you have to be able to evaluate players
Jerry can't do that

 

[Carson]

Great post but here is the issue
To be able to know who has peaked or who should be extended, you have to be able to evaluate players
Jerry can't do that

Bingo. We seem to extend players and their contracts stink and linger for years like a stinky cheese

 

[cern]

One of the biggest traps that often seem to trip up the Cowboys FO, and of course many of us fans, is making the dangerous assumption that when a young player gives you a really good/promising year, you can now count on that player giving you at least 4-5 more years at that level or higher. Our recent history is littered with guys Jerry fell in love with in the present, and assumed it would last many seasons.

Player evaluation never stops. The best GMs in this league are always evaluating their rosters with a cold heart. They literally look at every player and ask, “Has this guy peaked? How much real upside does this guy have? Have we already seen his best? Would we be better served not resigning this guy even though he’s been good lately?”

Truth is, you can never rest when it comes to player evaluation. That is what has made Bill Belichick the absolute best in player evaluation. He’s a cold hearted sob when it comes to looking at his roster. He’s cut guys like Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Wes Welker, Mike Vrabel, Deon Branch (a SB MVP), and Richard Seymour to name a few. All were All-Pro, top notch players, but B.B. saw they had all peaked, and that cutting them even a little early was better than over paying them at the time they began to decline.

IMO, this is what has killed Jerry as a GM. Jerry, to his credit, is a very kind soul. He loves his family and his team like a father. And that’s a good thing....except when it comes to player evaluation.

Dez Bryant is probably the best current example. We signed him to a big deal at the peak of his production. Three years later, though being paid as a top 5 receiver, his performance has been top 20 at best.

Hind sight is always 20/20. But good FO’s are able to look past the hype and avoid the dangerous assumption that a really good player is surely going to give us 5 more years like the past 5. That’s always an assumption you better think long and hard about.

Insightful as always, Bob. Belichick also tests the possibility of being able to resign a player before their contract expires. If he deems he can't, he looks to trade the player like he did with Seymour. Compare that thinking to us losing demarco Murray getting nothing in return. Or how we caved in to dez. It's a lesson we'd do well to learn.

 

[JoeKing]

Witten's value on this team is in his leadership, not his play on the field. Fans don't get this because they only care about on field performance.

 

[gmoney112]

Assumptions. Personally, I always preferred assgumption.

 

[GenoT]

Not only is player evaluation ongoing, it has to start as soon as a player earns a roster spot.

Even having a rookie break big right outta the box doesn’t mean you don’t have to concurrently plan for any eventuality regarding that player’s future availability. You can’t pencil someone in as a 5yr starter without having contingency plans.

A glaring example is the Cowboys knowing for years that T Smith’s back might be an issue at any time and yet were woefully unprepared for his not-so-surprising loss for part of last season.

Constant communication to and with the FO by the coaching and training/medical staffs — the people who interact with the players daily — should be paramount and actively encouraged. Too often, the Cowboys appear to be day-late reactive rather than day-early proactive.