Dangerous Assumptions

[CF74]

Witten's value on this team is in his leadership, not his play on the field. Fans don't get this because they only care about on field performance.

Because Witten has always helped other TE’s develop under him, not....

 

[JoeKing]

Because Witten has always helped other TE’s develop under him, not....

He's a team captain not the TE coach. It's not his job to develop the TEs. But thanks for your smarty quip of the day, not...

 

[CF74]

He's a team captain not the TE coach. It's not his job to develop the TEs. But thanks for your smarty quip of the day, not...

So what’s his job as captain, smack disobedient booties with wet towels in the locker room?

 

[buybuydandavis]

One of the biggest traps that often seem to trip up the Cowboys FO, and of course many of us fans, is making the dangerous assumption that when a young player gives you a really good/promising year, you can now count on that player giving you at least 4-5 more years at that level or higher.

Anthony Brown
A journalist compared him to Everson Walls last year
Not so much this year

One of the real problems with our team has been *regression* of players from their rookie seasons. Shouldn't young players improve? But we've had plenty who get worse. Some of it is expectations, but how much is poor development and player management?

 

[buybuydandavis]

Good question NC. I’m not at all sold on Jonathan Cooper. He would be an excellent swing backup G. As a starter that we commit big money to...not that keen on it.

Except the swing backup interior lineman has to play center too, unless we get a developmental player.

 

[buybuydandavis]

Insightful as always, Bob. Belichick also tests the possibility of being able to resign a player before their contract expires. If he deems he can't, he looks to trade the player like he did with Seymour. Compare that thinking to us losing demarco Murray getting nothing in return.

We got at least a 4th round comp pick for Murray. With comp picks, the utility of trades for guys nearing the end of their contracts goes way down. You're going to get something anyway, and the guy you're getting it from isn't giving it up. The main advantage is freeing up the roster spot and cap, while still salvaging a pick.

But I do like working on second tier guys with early contracts. It's worked out well with Church and Beasley.

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

One of the biggest traps that often seem to trip up the Cowboys FO, and of course many of us fans, is making the dangerous assumption that when a young player gives you a really good/promising year, you can now count on that player giving you at least 4-5 more years at that level or higher. Our recent history is littered with guys Jerry fell in love with in the present, and assumed it would last many seasons.

Player evaluation never stops. The best GMs in this league are always evaluating their rosters with a cold heart. They literally look at every player and ask, “Has this guy peaked? How much real upside does this guy have? Have we already seen his best? Would we be better served not resigning this guy even though he’s been good lately?”

Truth is, you can never rest when it comes to player evaluation. That is what has made Bill Belichick the absolute best in player evaluation. He’s a cold hearted sob when it comes to looking at his roster. He’s cut guys like Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Wes Welker, Mike Vrabel, Deon Branch (a SB MVP), and Richard Seymour to name a few. All were All-Pro, top notch players, but B.B. saw they had all peaked, and that cutting them even a little early was better than over paying them at the time they began to decline.

IMO, this is what has killed Jerry as a GM. Jerry, to his credit, is a very kind soul. He loves his family and his team like a father. And that’s a good thing....except when it comes to player evaluation.

Dez Bryant is probably the best current example. We signed him to a big deal at the peak of his production. Three years later, though being paid as a top 5 receiver, his performance has been top 20 at best.

Hind sight is always 20/20. But good FO’s are able to look past the hype and avoid the dangerous assumption that a really good player is surely going to give us 5 more years like the past 5. That’s always an assumption you better think long and hard about.

Very well, then. Carry on. And, BTW, brilliant sentiments ....!

 

[Verdict]

Following that sentiment we should have parted ways with Witten 3-5 years ago amongst others...

Yes we should have.

 

[Bobhaze]

Witten's value on this team is in his leadership, not his play on the field. Fans don't get this because they only care about on field performance.

Don’t get me wrong, I love Jason Witten. He’s a legit HOFer and ROH player. Big respect.

But we cannot just assume that the love we have for a player has no shelf life. Many HOFers were cut by their teams. The 49ers released Joe Montana. Namath by the Jets. Unitas by the colts.

I have been in favor of Keeping Witten every year to this point. But he too must be evaluated. That’s the point of this thread. No one is “too good” to avoid scrutiny.

 

[northerncowboynation]

Good point. For sure we have gotten better in recent years. I was in favor of all of those releases- even Ware. The key is being to accurately predict who has peaked and who is still developingor has upside. You’re always going to miss on some guys but hopefully be right on most.

When you can predict injuries then you're our new GM Bob . Not being argumentative here but that is what did in Ware, Romo, Claiborne, Crawford and Dez to some extent too. Yes we stuck with Carr too long. I agree that assessment based on talent and when a player has peaked has to be an honest evaluation. I'm not convinced that Dez has peaked at 800 odd yards of receiving and we've always known he wasn't the sharpest knife in the drawer or the fastest or best route runner. Can he still be a 1000 yard WR, IMO yes. Sometimes the team has to weigh the positives with the negatives. Emmitt was a once in a life time player who was too small, too slow and not quick enough. Some one took a risk. The biggest risk we ever took IMO, Jaylon Smith. I won't fault the team for picking him because of his play in college. Worthy of the 2'nd round pick? We have no idea. It's all about risk assessment and they're all a risk

 

[JoeKing]

So what’s his job as captain, smack disobedient booties with wet towels in the locker room?

You are an agitator looking for a fight, not someone interested in an adult conversation. I'm done with your immature petulance.

 

[JoeKing]

Don’t get me wrong, I love Jason Witten. He’s a legit HOFer and ROH player. Big respect.

But we cannot just assume that the love we have for a player has no shelf life. Many HOFers were cut by their teams. The 49ers released Joe Montana. Namath by the Jets. Unitas by the colts.

I have been in favor of Keeping Witten every year to this point. But he too must be evaluated. That’s the point of this thread. No one is “too good” to avoid scrutiny.

So who do you replace him with? Rico doesn't even like to play football. When we have a better TE on the team then go ahead and send him to the pasture.

 

[JustChip]

Witten's value on this team is in his leadership, not his play on the field. Fans don't get this because they only care about on field performance.

The problem is there isn’t a fantasy football category for leadership.

 

[Alexander]

So who do you replace him with? Rico doesn't even like to play football. When we have a better TE on the team then go ahead and send him to the pasture.

That is the front office's problem.

We need to draft a TE. Badly.

 

[JoeKing]

The problem is there isn’t a fantasy football category for leadership.

If fantasy football is your thing over the Dallas Cowboys then yeah, but this isn't the fantasy football zone.

 

[cern]

We got at least a 4th round comp pick for Murray. With comp picks, the utility of trades for guys nearing the end of their contracts goes way down. You're going to get something anyway, and the guy you're getting it from isn't giving it up. The main advantage is freeing up the roster spot and cap, while still salvaging a pick.

But I do like working on second tier guys with early contracts. It's worked out well with Church and Beasley.

true, but in the case of murray we weren't trying to free up a roster spot and gain cap space. the year prior, we offered him a high offer and he flat out refused. that should have been a clue he would be hard to sign when his contract was up. his final year is when we should have been looking to trade him. but we naively held out hope he'd give the "cowboy deal" a chance. instead, he went to philly for far more money and we got the 4th round comp pick which amounts to little more than chump change for what we gave up.

 

[JoeKing]

That is the front office's problem.

We need to draft a TE. Badly.

Even if we do draft a TE, do they cut bait with Witten and hope this new TE is NFL ready right away? Witten just played in his 11th pro bowl. I doubt the rookie is going to suitably replace Witten's production.

 

[Bullflop]

Good question NC. I’m not at all sold on Jonathan Cooper. He would be an excellent swing backup G. As a starter that we commit big money to...not that keen on it.

Committing "big" money to Cooper would be stupid. I doubt this organization is about to do that, unless they're crazy, never mind foolish. He's really just a backup, no more.

 

[JustChip]

If fantasy football is your thing over the Dallas Cowboys then yeah, but this isn't the fantasy football zone.

It tain’t mine. That was a tongue in cheek comment. Unfortunately waaaay too many fans view players solely through the FF prism.

 

[CF74]

You are an agitator looking for a fight, not someone interested in an adult conversation. I'm done with your immature petulance.

Not in the least. Simply asking what is Witten's duty as captain with a little sarcasm. He’s a progress stopper plain and simple, teams barely cover him now unless it’s third and short, otherwise they let him catch the underneath stuff all day because he’s not going anywhere...