Dark horse first round prediction?

[TwoDeep3]

I dont think "value" should be looked at as a "what if" perapective. His overall abilities, intangibles, and potential has been rated as being around the 15th to 25th best player, on average.

If you look at "value" in a mathematical sense in terms of drafting, the higher you draft the better player you can get. However, if you don't do that then you have lost value at the specific moment in time and as it relates to the opportunity to maximize that value.

Suppose you could trade down 3 spots for a 2nd round pick and then get Lynch.

Or suppose somebody else wishes to trade up with the Cowboys for Lynch and gives their #1 and their #2 and perhaps more.

Now suppose one of thos picks turn out to be Hackenberg plus a DE that turns out to be a real contributor.

So then, who is to say that it isn't Hackenberg rather than Lynch that becomes the true franchise quarterback?

So, Im not really predicting who will be the future star, if either. Im just saying they should maximize their value because this is the value given to the 4th worst team during the previous season.

What were Brady's intangibles? Witten's intangibles? Romo's intangibles?

Then you tell me what if shouldn't be the the way to look at value, And then toss out a suppose we trade down three spots for an added second.

Production is all that matters in the draft. I have come to this conclusion over and over. Maximizing value is a piece of paper that says you got a guy "projected" as a first for a second. Would the niners have been any less if Montana was drafted in the first?

At the end of the day, did you get a player or not?

Romo is no more valuable because he was a free agent than Aikman at the first over-all pick. Their production is all that matters, and the rest of that os simply bragging rights based on a crap-shoot.

 

[iceberg]

I dont really have a pick. If they stay at 4 it will be one of the guys who have been discussed ad nauseam.

and if they drop it purely depends on where, which is more speculation that's been covered to holy hell and back.

tomorrow night. we can put the 1st round to bed. in 6 months, the rest of the draft to follow.....

 

[canters]

Paxton Lynch at #4.

 

[dogunwo]

I don't think Lynch is anywhere close to being a darkhorse.

This team is not emotionally ready to submit to taking a QB in the first round.

In a way, I am glad we were spared the anguish of having the two top QBs available for us to pass over.

That was the biggest favor out of the trade ups for Dallas. It took the pressure off of Jones having to explain how a CB, RB or non-elite DL was worth more than a potential franchise QB.

Buckner is a remote possibility.

Right now it is a four horse race, IMO.

The guesswork is very minimal.

It is either Ramsey, Elliott, Bosa or if we have decided to get cute for "upside", Buckner.

Right, I remember the Joneses getting destroyed by the media for passing on future "franchise quarterback" Brady Quinn, although that was partly Jerry's fault for publicly stating how high they had him rated.

 

[boysfanindc]

Tunsil/Lawson

 

[Spectre]

Buckner.

Though it seems the team was hot and heavy over him early in the process, and haven't heard much about him since.

Maybe they met with the coaches and were informed he didn't really fit our defense?

Here's a super dark horse: we trade down out of the top 12 and draft Fuller after all of our targets have been eliminated

Im down with this, only make it Treadwell instead of Fuller. Speed - overrated.

 

[reddyuta]

Buckner,the scouts everywhere love him for some reason.

 

[Fletch]

They're going to fist pump and wink and back slap in every pick including Dak Prescott who they will be 'amazed' was still there when they picked and blind fans will happily lap it up

Stop it! My cup overfloweth with kool aid. Can't wait to cry blue and silver tears and catch each one so that I can drink them.

 

[Knotamus]

Paxton Lynch at #4.

 

[plasticman]

What were Brady's intangibles? Witten's intangibles? Romo's intangibles?

Then you tell me what if shouldn't be the the way to look at value, And then toss out a suppose we trade down three spots for an added second.

Production is all that matters in the draft. I have come to this conclusion over and over. Maximizing value is a piece of paper that says you got a guy "projected" as a first for a second. Would the niners have been any less if Montana was drafted in the first?

At the end of the day, did you get a player or not?

Romo is no more valuable because he was a free agent than Aikman at the first over-all pick. Their production is all that matters, and the rest of that os simply bragging rights based on a crap-shoot.

Your right, no argument there, its a peice of paper, they are projecting, I guess you could say it is an educated guess. And you are also right that there is no way to truly know until that players career has unfolded.

Romo and Brady's careers are both fascinating presicely because they were unusually successful for their status upon entering the NFL. They truly were exceptions to the rule.

All I'm saying is that probability favors the teams that choose first if they consiatantly select those players perceived as the best.

Would it be fair to say that the higher the drafy position, the highet the probability of obtaining a Hall of Famer?
Let's see:

Since the 1960 draft, 38 players that were overall top 5 selections in the draft are in the Hall of Fame.

For overall #6 to #10 selections 18 have made the Hall of Fame.

For selections that were 11 to 15 overall, 11 have made the Hall of Fame.

Thats 67 in the top half of the 1st round. The bottom half has a total of 13 Hall of Famers.

22 in the entire 2nd round. 15 in the 3rd. 8 in the 4th. 3 in the 5th. 5 in rounds 6 and 7 combined.

So its obvious that the higher you draft, the greater is the chance you will obtain quality players. Why would you draft a player that should be in a lower group where there is less of a probability of quality.

That is, unless your team management are truly talented in evaluating football talent and they typically know something the rest of the league doesnt.

Now, honestly, does that sound like the Dallas Cowboys of today?

 

[TwoDeep3]

You make great points. But allow me to ask this. If all the first round Hall of Famers - and there is a bit of a skewed results since the people who put them there are journalists and not players and coaches - of all those elected in the first round. What percentage is that of the total number of players selected in the first round?

The reason I ask is this. The percentage is so low, it indicates not only this team, but every team steps up to the table and rolls the dice.

And if that is the case, how much is pure good fortune, and how much is skill?

My GUESS is there are maybe five really good players in most drafts, and the rest fall short of that. And five might be a good year.