Deadskins are apparently not in "Cap Hell"

[Gryphon]

http://Commanders.scout.com/2/490049.html

Cap Hell is just a myth. Every team has easy ways of getting out of cap problems.

We're just lucky enough to find a very easy solution.

No cap hell we can end this subject now.

 

[BigDFan5]

http://Commanders.scout.com/2/490049.html

Cap Hell is just a myth. Every team has easy ways of getting out of cap problems.

We're just lucky enough to find a very easy solution.

No cap hell we can end this subject now.

http://dallascowboyszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=705187&postcount=26


The article was already debunked by our very own Adam

If the CBA is extended before March (thus extending the cap), the 30 percent rule won't apply to this season, and they'd be able to do all of the normal renegotiations, etc.

If not, they won't be able to do a lot of those things, and they'll have to do some things differently and for less cap savings. Let's look at some specific players, for example.

The article at Scout.com says the Skins could save $2.4 million with a simple restructuring of Mark Brunell's contract (lowering his base salary to the veteran minimum and giving him the difference as a signing bonus). Normally, they'd be able to take his $4 million base salary, renegotiate it to $770,000 and pay him a $3.23 million bonus, which would be prorated. That would reduce his cap number by $2,422,500. But his $4 million base salary allows his salaries for 2007 through 2010 to go up by $1.2 million per season, which is exactly what they do. If his base salary drops to $770,000 in 2006, his total salaries couldn't go up by more than $231,000 per season. So instead of having a salary of $5.2 million for 2007, it couldn't be higher than $1.001 million. And instead of $6.4 million in 2008, he couldn't make more than $1.232 million. Over the life of his contract, he'd have agree to take a pay cut of $22.61 million! Granted, he'd probably never play through 2010 anyway, but it would be foolish for him even to agree to take a pay cut of more than $4 million for 2007, when he still might be playing.

The ONLY way for the Skins to reduce Brunell's cap hit AT ALL is for Brunell to agree to a pay cut of some sort, although they could convince him to take a pay cut for future years -- when he might not even be playing -- in exchange for more money now. For example, let's say Brunell thinks he'll be able to play at least two more years. Under his current contract, he'd get $4 million in 2006 and $5.2 million in 2007. Of that $9.2 million total, the Skins could prorate no more than $7.429 million, leaving him with base salaries of $770,000 in 2006 and $1.001 million in 2007. The cap savings would be $1,372,750 -- more than $1 million less than the $2,422,500 that could have been saved without the 30 percent rule. And Brunell would still have to accept big pay cuts for 2008 through 2010, which he might not see anyway. So by paying Brunell and extra $4.199 million this season, the Skins could save $1,372,750 of cap room. But to save any more than that, they'll have to convince Brunell to take less money over the next two years, as well as from 2008 through 2010.

The article at Scout.com also says the Skins can save $4.9 million by guaranteeing and prorating LaVar Arrington's $6.5 million roster bonus. Normally, guaranteeing and prorating his bonus would save $4.875 million. But that $6.5 million roster bonus and his $545,000 base salary allow his total "salaries" (not just base salary) from 2007 to 2011 to increase by as much as $2,113,500 per year (30 percent of $7.045 million), and indeed, the increases from 2007 to 2008 and from 2008 to 2009 are $2.1 million apiece. But guaranteeing and prorating the bonus removes it from the 30 percent rule calculation, making his maximum increase a mere $163,500 per season, starting from $545,000 in 2006. His pay cut would be monumental -- more than $39 million, plus incentives.

In order for the Skins to comply with the 30 percent rule without having Arrington agree to accept less money, they couldn't guarantee and prorate more than $2.045 million of his roster bonus. That would save $1,533,750 -- a far cry from the $4.875 million they'd be able to save if the CBA is extended before March. They'd also have to adjust his total salaries for 2007 through 2011, increasing it by $1.4 million for 2007, increasing it by $800,000 for 2008, increasing it by $200,000 for 2009, lowering it by $400,000 for 2010 and lowering it by $500,000 for 2011. That would give him the exact same amount of money, but distributed differently, and it would comply with the 30 percent rule. It would increase his cap numbers for 2007, 2008 and 2009, but in this case, at least 2007 would be uncapped, anyway. And if the cap returns after that, they can go back to prorating money and putting off the cap hits.

So, just in those two examples, unless Brunell and Arrington accept pay cuts, simply restructuring their contracts will save no more than $2,906,500 of cap room -- not anywhere close to the $7,297,500 suggested in the article.

 

[BAZ]

http://Commanders.scout.com/2/490049.html

Cap Hell is just a myth. Every team has easy ways of getting out of cap problems.

We're just lucky enough to find a very easy solution.

No cap hell we can end this subject now.

While that list is nice, it doesn't mean it will be played out like that. They also have to sign FA's and draft picks.

They might not be in hell but they are not the best of either. Every franchise makes bad decisions and they can still make a balls of things.

 

[Gryphon]

Thanks for the info.

 

[Gryphon]

While that list is nice, it doesn't mean it will be played out like that. They also have to sign FA's and draft picks.

They might not be in hell but they are not the best of either. Every franchise makes bad decisions and they can still make a balls of things.

I hope so, especially with the Cap ending in 2007.

 

[BigDFan5]

Another thing with his list he is saying the Skins would have 12 mill in cap room, but fails to adress that he is 9 players short of 51 He is saying they would be 12 mill under with only 42 players

 

[Chuck 54]

They've managed to avoid cap problems so far by reworking contracts and cutting guys with big salaries who seem easily replaced. Arrington, Ramsey, and others will go this year...others will rework contracts...they have no first round pick to sign...did that with last year's money...just watch...they'll survive it.....#$%$#

 

[silverbear]

http://Commanders.scout.com/2/490049.html

Cap Hell is just a myth. Every team has easy ways of getting out of cap problems.

We're just lucky enough to find a very easy solution.

No cap hell we can end this subject now.

Gryph, that article is an old one, that has been posted on these boards before... problem is, the guy makes a whole bunch of highly optimistic/improbable assumptions that render the whole exercise specious... I have dissected that article before, and won't go to all the time and trouble of pointing out its fallacies to you again, except to point out a couple-three of the more egregious mistakes contained therein... those should be sufficient to cause you to look suspiciously at the rest of his theories... note that I pointed out my criticisms to the author directly, and he never bothered to dispute my arguments:

1) PcinOz (that's the online name of Robert Large) is a Skins fan, not a capologist... you need to keep that in mind, you're reading the musings of a Skins fan, not an acknowledged expert on the cap... he starts out badly, talking about how the top 48 salaries on the Skins total up to 113.8 million, thus the Skins are "only" 18.8 million over the cap... problem is, when calculating a team's situation versus the cap in the offseason, you total up the top FIFTY ONE salaries on your roster... so even if those other 3 contracts are street free agent minimum wage-type deals (as is likely), you need to add another half mil, maybe more, to the deficit...

A minor thing, perhaps, but indicative of the slipshod approach PC took to his flight of fancy...

2) PcinOz totally neglected to factor in what happens if the league and the NFLPA does not reach a new collective bargaining agreement in the next 17 days... if that does not happen, the Skins' ability to convert base salary into signing bonus, thus spreading that base salary out over x number of years, will be eliminated altogether... he has allotted nearly 7 million dollars in cap savings for such moves...

In case you're not up on why that is, let me explain how it works-- if there is no CBA in place by March 1st, something called the Rule of 30 Percent kicks in... this rule specifices that a player's base salary can only go up by 30 per cent per year...

So, if a player is currently making 5 mil a year, under the rule of 30 he could make 6.5 mil next year in base salary, 8.45 mil the following year... but if he allows the team to convert 4 million of that to signing bonus, leaving him a base of 1 million, then his 2nd year salary could only increase to 1.3 mil, then to 1.69 mil the following year... IOW, though he'd still be making the same 5 million in year 1, he'd be SEVERELY screwed in the following years... no player is gonna sit still for that, so you can expect that nobody would be willing to convert base salary to signing bonus absent a new CBA...

This might not happen, in fact I hope it doesn't happen, but his failure to factor that in renders his theorizing shaky at best...

3) Nowhere in his analysis does he factor in the price tag for re-signing their OWN free agents... there are a couple-three of them that they're gonna want to bring back, and that will cut into their cap...

Those are three of the more glaring flaws in that "analysis"... he's also quite vague in places about specifics:

"Other smaller amounts from various players – save $1.7m"

"This is by no mean an exhaustive list, but just the major savers."

It's not an "exhaustive list", it just considers 15 of the 48 players he has on the roster... LOL...

Again, I pointed out all of these criticisms-- and more-- to the guy, and his response was a deafening silence... I wasn't rude, I like him, and I tried not to be confrontational, but his lack of response suggested to me that he hadn't considered the things I'd pointed out...

Now, I'm not saying that the Skins are going into "cap hell", I don't think they're quite there yet... but by the time they do enough roster maneuvering to get under the cap, there won't be much left for any moves in free agency... and as I pointed out the first time around, the party line out of Commanders Park, from Joe Gibbs right on down to the players, is that the top priority this year is going to be to keep the current roster together... to me, this is the Skins telling their fans that they shouldn't expect them to be major players in free agency this offseason, and the reason for that is cap constraints... they may be good for a couple-three lesser free agent moves, but unless they're contemplating some unexpected, highly draconian cuts, they won't have the wherewithal to pursue the top name, top dollar free agents...

It ain't cap hell, but I'd call it cap heck, LOL...

 

[AdamJT13]

I've explained to PCinOz that his plan for the Commanders won't be possible if the CBA isn't extended (thus eliminating the 30 percent rule) unless the Skins find players who are willing to take major pay cuts with no guarantee of getting anything in return. He's convinced the players will be willing to do it, because they know Daniel Snyder will make up for it in the future.

 

[silverbear]

I've explained to PCinOz that his plan for the Commanders won't be possible if the CBA isn't extended (thus eliminating the 30 percent rule) unless the Skins find players who are willing to take major pay cuts with no guarantee of getting anything in return. He's convinced the players will be willing to do it, because they know Daniel Snyder will make up for it in the future.

Ahhh, that ol' starry-eyed dreamer...

 

[burmafrd]

I always ask these morons this question: The NFL, if nothing else, is known as a copy cat league. If one team is successful doing something a certain way, others follow. So why is it that NO OTHER TEAM does what the skins do - not even close. Because they know that sooner or later it will all fall down and you will spend years as a total doormat. Simple as that.

 

[mbanx]

I've explained to PCinOz that his plan for the Commanders won't be possible if the CBA isn't extended (thus eliminating the 30 percent rule) unless the Skins find players who are willing to take major pay cuts with no guarantee of getting anything in return. He's convinced the players will be willing to do it, because they know Daniel Snyder will make up for it in the future.

Breaking news: AdamJT13 is really Stephen Jones

 

[RiggoForever]

I always ask these morons this question: The NFL, if nothing else, is known as a copy cat league. If one team is successful doing something a certain way, others follow. So why is it that NO OTHER TEAM does what the skins do - not even close. Because they know that sooner or later it will all fall down and you will spend years as a total doormat. Simple as that.

Actually Denver has been doing what we do, we have been in "cap hell" for the past couple of years, yet our success on the field has proven itself.

 

[burmafrd]

No one goes to the lengths the skins do. Not even close.

 

[dstew60105]

Actually Denver has been doing what we do, we have been in "cap hell" for the past couple of years, yet our success on the field has proven itself.

What success on the field? The Commanders have been doormats for as long as I can remember. This year was a fluke.

 

[lcharles]

Adam Is Stephen Jones?

 

[david_jackson]

I wouldn't be at all surprised to read soon that the CBA has been extended and that the % of shared revenue going to the players via the cap will increase. Unfortunately for Cowboy fans this give the Skins additional cap dollars to leverage. If this happens Cap Hell is postponed for several years or they could change thier practices (not likely) and smooth out thier diffuiculties over several years to become an inconvenince.

If I were a betting man I would bet the CBA will be extended and the Commanders wll continue current proctices and go into cap hell in abouth 2009 or 2010.

 

[preacher238]

Actually Denver has been doing what we do, we have been in "cap hell" for the past couple of years, yet our success on the field has proven itself.

???

Are you high?? A winning record, this year only, qualifies as success on the field?? You, moron, are high!

 

[clayman]

???

Are you high?? A winning record, this year only, qualifies as success on the field?? You, moron, are high!

High yes but not a moron. The Skins under Joe Gibbs have become a more structured team that could lead to continued success. They have cut malcontents even by taking a cap hit (see Coles who is off their books now) and have been taking a quieter approach to free agency by looking for blue collar type additions (rabach, patten) that aren't way costly stars and building a team aura in the likes of NE where no one person makes the team. Not comparing them to NE of the past 5 yrs just stating it looks as though they are more team focused thru consistency of players and coaches and not just costly stars at every position. They could regress and crumble but Gibbs builds organizations (see Gibbs 1.0 and his Nascar team) that tend to last and he is definitely intent on leaving the franchise as a whole better off for the future than after his first time around.

 

[leotisbrown]

That PC in Oz a knucklehead type who dont not understand the minushia of the salary caps with details insight to boot.

I laughs at his lacking inteligents.

Cap hell for the Skins begin in 2006!!!