Deep Passing Stats 2017

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Any neutral observer would see that my posts are calm and rational while yours are not rational and not calm.

I do enjoy the comedy.

anyone can make biased accusations...as you just did...

I just debunked your entire premise of spinning something given your obvious biased view and agenda on Dak….so now I am not calm or rational....but picking very specific articles even from the same website, yet dismissing other ones that don't fit your view and agenda is considered rational...hmmm, OK then....lets just leave it at that....

talking about comedy, you must be looking in the mirror my friend.

 

[HungryLion]

anyone can make biased accusations...as you just did...

I just debunked your entire premise of spinning something given your obvious biased view and agenda on Dak….so now I am not calm or rational....but picking very specific articles even from the same website, yet dismissing other ones that don't fit your view and agenda is considered rational...hmmm, OK then....lets just leave it at that....

talking about comedy, you must be looking in the mirror my friend.

You actually didn’t debunk anything. You just complained.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

You actually didn’t debunk anything. You just complained.

good for you.....bravo...

 

[xwalker]

So our eyes have been deceiving us when he missed those deep passes?

No, some Cowboys fans just overlook the fact that other QBs have a similar and often greater number of missed passes.

I don't recall many missed deep passes to Cooper in 2018.

Much of the 2017 incomplete deep passes were to Dez. Butler was a 1 trick pony but that trick was catching deep passes. Dak's deep pass completion rate to Butler far exceeded the overall deep pass completion rate by any QB.

Just removing Dez, Dak's deep pass completion rate would be well above average and that includes TWill in the mix who was never good on deep passes even with Romo.

In 2018 the missed deep passes that fans remember were primarily with Gallup as the target. Gallup would make mid-route moves (side step or stutter step) but Dak was already starting his throw and was not factoring the delay by Gallup into his aiming point downfield.

Obviously all QBs have some new WRs but most good teams have some deep pass catching WRs that have been on the roster a few years. Beasley was the only returning WR that played significant snaps and he is not a deep pass type WR.

Dak had rookie Gallup, Austin who was limited in practice reps because of injury issues, Hurns and Deonte Thompson before the Cooper trade TWill barely played then went to IR. That lack of time with WRs made it difficult to get the timing correct on deep passes.

If Dak does not excell on deep passes in 2019, I'll create a thread and say that he was not good enough.

Side Note: I'm curious to see WR Devin Smith in the preseason. He was a great deep pass catching WR in college but his NFL career was derailed by injuries.

 

[CCBoy]

anyone can make biased accusations...as you just did...

I just debunked your entire premise of spinning something given your obvious biased view and agenda on Dak….so now I am not calm or rational....but picking very specific articles even from the same website, yet dismissing other ones that don't fit your view and agenda is considered rational...hmmm, OK then....lets just leave it at that....

talking about comedy, you must be looking in the mirror my friend.

...wait on it...it's coming...not yet...

duh!

But if one is just looking for an argument, go ahead, and just start one...

 

[Kaiser]

You actually didn’t debunk anything. You just complained.

Incoherently.

 

[Kaiser]

Side Note: I'm curious to see WR Devin Smith in the preseason. He was a great deep pass catching WR in college but his NFL career was derailed by injuries.

Same here, his draft profiles say he was a one trick pony with only the deep route, but that one trick was good enough to get him drafted in the second round. Hopefully Sanjay Lal can work his magic, this is Dane Brugler's draft profile on Smith from 2015. Also note the Special Teams note about him playing Gunner well.


STRENGTHS: Legit vertical speed to be a “go route” tormentor – averaged one touchdown every 4.0 catches in college…gliding strides to stretch the field with take-it-the-distance acceleration…plant-and-drive burst with strong cuts and lower body explosion…tracks very well, using body angles to box out and gain correct positioning downfield…quick hands to pluck, extending his catch radius beyond others with his size…acrobatic ballskills to make highlight-reel grabs…flexible joints with the body control to make natural adjustments…excellent special teams player and often the first down the field on punt coverages – gains free release and speeds down the field with conviction…starred for three years on the Ohio State track & field team – qualified for NCAA regionals with a 7-0.25 high jump, which ranks top-five in school history…finished among the FBS leaders in 2014 with a 28.2 yards per catch average (also a single season school record) and leaves Columbus fifth in school history in career receiving yards (2,503).

WEAKNESSES: Lean body type with wiry muscle tone…field fast with light feet, but looks mechanical when asked to move laterally…doesn’t set up defenders in his routes and lacks diverse stem releases…wild footwork in his patterns and lacks control in his movements, making him most effective in a straight-line – unpolished as an underneath target and struggles to sink and separate in his breaks…inconsistent hands and drops too many easy throws with streaky focus…tracks the ball well, but late to adjust and attack if the ball doesn’t hit him in stride…will get pushed around and too easily re-routed and knocked off his path…averaged only 2.2 catches per game as a senior and his limitations kept him from being an every-down receiver.

SUMMARY: Although he’s a one-trick pony right now, Smith is really talented at that one trick, using his striding speed to stretch the field and be a difference-maker on vertical routes – Ohio high school state champion in the 100-meter dash (10.56). He is most effective on downfield routes and defenses must respect that, but is limited everywhere else on offense with shaky hands and a raw route tree, struggling to smoothly transition at the top of his patterns or set up his breaks. Although his game lacks polish, Smith brings special teams value as a gunner and he should contribute immediately as a nine route monster – time will tell if he can break through and be more than that.

 

[Sydla]

All this data proves is that Dak Prescott is all over the map in terms of rankings, advanced stats, etc. He does well here in an analysis of the 2017 season on "deep" balls but overall, he rated as the 17th best QB by FO in DYAR and DVOA.

He's a fascinating case study.

 

[CCBoy]

All this data proves is that Dak Prescott is all over the map in terms of rankings, advanced stats, etc. He does well here in an analysis of the 2017 season on "deep" balls but overall, he rated as the 17th best QB by FO in DYAR and DVOA.

He's a fascinating case study.

This fan just wants Dak Prescott to be a determined challenge for opposing defenses...keeping their linebackers and safeties flat footed.

 

[punchnjudy]

All this data proves is that Dak Prescott is all over the map in terms of rankings, advanced stats, etc. He does well here in an analysis of the 2017 season on "deep" balls but overall, he rated as the 17th best QB by FO in DYAR and DVOA.

He's a fascinating case study.

That's interesting since it's exactly where Dallas ranked last season in points per drive.

 

[Birdgang]

Its hard to take the study seriously when they use players like Savage, Kizer, Brisset, Winston Top 15 and then have Hundley, Mccown, Sieman in mix. Seems like he has an agenda he is trying to push. I do always like to see outside the box thinking when trying to break down players instead of the same thing over and over. I get what he is trying to do, but he failed .

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

So our eyes have been deceiving us when he missed those deep passes?

The new approach is to blame it on Gallup.

 

[tyke1doe]

No, some Cowboys fans just overlook the fact that other QBs have a similar and often greater number of missed passes.

I don't recall many missed deep passes to Cooper in 2018.

Much of the 2017 incomplete deep passes were to Dez. Butler was a 1 trick pony but that trick was catching deep passes. Dak's deep pass completion rate to Butler far exceeded the overall deep pass completion rate by any QB.

Just removing Dez, Dak's deep pass completion rate would be well above average and that includes TWill in the mix who was never good on deep passes even with Romo.

In 2018 the missed deep passes that fans remember were primarily with Gallup as the target. Gallup would make mid-route moves (side step or stutter step) but Dak was already starting his throw and was not factoring the delay by Gallup into his aiming point downfield.

Obviously all QBs have some new WRs but most good teams have some deep pass catching WRs that have been on the roster a few years. Beasley was the only returning WR that played significant snaps and he is not a deep pass type WR.

Dak had rookie Gallup, Austin who was limited in practice reps because of injury issues, Hurns and Deonte Thompson before the Cooper trade TWill barely played then went to IR. That lack of time with WRs made it difficult to get the timing correct on deep passes.

If Dak does not excell on deep passes in 2019, I'll create a thread and say that he was not good enough.

Side Note: I'm curious to see WR Devin Smith in the preseason. He was a great deep pass catching WR in college but his NFL career was derailed by injuries.

I may disagree with you on occasions, but I like the fact that you don't get snarky in disagreement - at least with me - and you try to back up your position with reasonable arguments.

 

[tyke1doe]

The new approach is to blame it on Gallup.

I haven't poured over the stats of every pass he threw so many those who are quoting these stats about his deep ball accuracy are correct. But I saw more than a few times when he missed receivers. So I'm wondering whether I'm seeing the same thing as others are.
I don't think my sight is THAT bad.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

All this data proves is that Dak Prescott is all over the map in terms of rankings, advanced stats, etc. He does well here in an analysis of the 2017 season on "deep" balls but overall, he rated as the 17th best QB by FO in DYAR and DVOA.

He's a fascinating case study.

according to some those are subjective stats and don't count. but 16+ yard passes count....don't forget 16+ not 16.5+ or 16.25+ or 17+...it has to be 16 so it makes it nice and good looking outcome...

now if DYAR and DVOA look good for Dak next year, then its fair game and it will be pointed to by all Dak Fanatics...its only fair....

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

The new approach is to blame it on Gallup.

it is his fault...how dare he run too fast or not run fast enough....doesn't he know how negatively it impacts Dak's stats and p!sses off Dak Fanatics..

btw, don't forget a large blame goes to the fans in section 400, row 25.... they are too loud and it disrupts the air and the passing accuracy when Dak is throwing to that side of the field.

 

[xwalker]

I haven't poured over the stats of every pass he threw so many those who are quoting these stats about his deep ball accuracy are correct. But I saw more than a few times when he missed receivers. So I'm wondering whether I'm seeing the same thing as others are.
I don't think my sight is THAT bad.

The best QBs generally have a below 50% completion rate on deep passes.

For 2017 on 16+ yard passes:
A.Rodgers 44.8%.
T.Brady 48.6%.

That means that Rodgers and Brady had more incomplete 16+ yard passes than complete 16+ yard passes.

If you move the "deep" pass definition to 30+ yards then their completion percent drops significantly more and approaches 1 completion in 3 attempts.

Fan emotion comes into play when relying on what they saw vs stats.

Very few Cowboys fans (myself included) watch all passes thrown by other QBs but generally do see most or all of Dak's passes.

Even when Cowboys fans do see incomplete deep passes by other QBs, it's often not an emotional event and therefore does not tend to stick in their memory like incomplete deep passes by Dak.

 

[Idgit]

It's clear at this point. Even in his worst year, his deep ball is rated among the highest. Dak is a deep ball oriented passer.

The only reason his passing yards are so low is because Zeke chews up most of the short yardage. He doesn't dink and dunk as much as most of the QBs - and moreso the ones who don't have a run based offense will get their yards from their QB most of all. All those dink and dunk yards and screen passes that go for run for 25 yards after the catch are the ones missing from his total passing yards count.


Here, look..... another 2017 stat. It also proved the type of offense that we had if anybody listened to that analysis.

His passing yards/game are generally lower because we play a style of football that limits the number of possessions in a game. And the possessions we do have we tend to run the ball a bit more than most teams. People should look at offensive stats on a per possession basis rather than per game, but they never do.

 

[xwalker]

I may disagree with you on occasions, but I like the fact that you don't get snarky in disagreement - at least with me - and you try to back up your position with reasonable arguments.

It would be boring here if everyone was in agreement.

I love a real discussion/debate with people that really want figure out what really happened or want to figure out how Cowboys players really performed.

Unfortunately as you can see in this thread a couple of posters just want to troll. One of them hates Dak and hates that he has been repeatedly wrong about Dak. The other one just follows me around trying desperately to find fault with anything I post. He can't let go of the times I've proven him wrong about various topics. He does the same thing to a few other posters.

I'm not really that concerned about really deep passing (30+ yards). My primary goal was to show that Dak is NOT a dink and dunk passer. The 16 yard mark is more than enough to NOT be considered a short pass.

 

[Sydla]

His passing yards/game are generally lower because we play a style of football that limits the number of possessions in a game. And the possessions we do have we tend to run the ball a bit more than most teams. People should look at offensive stats on a per possession basis rather than per game, but they never do.

His passing yards per drive are middle of the pack as well. So are the team’s yards per drive and points per drive.

Yes, they typically are near the bottom in terms of drives per game (they averaged just under one less drive per game than league average in 2018) but their efficiency in their drives is nothing to write home about anyway.