Deep Threat WRs and Kellen Moore's Offense

[Number1]

They don't say:
Being able to hit those deep balls in games is going to change everything if we're able to do that.

You don't get coaches admitting that they weren't able to hit deep balls in the previous season, and being able to do it would change everything.

coaches constantly talk about the importance of the deep game

 

[percyhoward]

We should be *better* than top 10 in yards with Cooper and Zeke. We aren't because we don't hit the deep ball.

That's definitely one of the reasons, yes. In fact, let's say that it is the only reason, just for argument's sake. Here's the thing: That still doesn't make it the "fundamental problem" of the offense. I think you just overstated a bit, and don't want to back away from it, for whatever reason.

Since yards per drive don't always indicate success at reaching the red zone, I researched the percentage of all 32 teams' drives that reached the red zone (or scored TD from outside it) after the Cowboys traded for Cooper.

Weeks 8-18, 2018
% of drives that reached red zone
(includes TD scored from outside red zone)
1 NO 47.6
2 KC 41.5
3 LAR 40.2
4 IND 39.4
5 CAR 38.9
6 NE 38.5
7 DAL 37.7
8 TB 37.5
9 ATL 37.4
10 SEA 36.7

Could Dallas have been *better* at reaching the red zone? Of course. But logic eventually has to come into this at some point. Over the exact same stretch of games with Cooper, Dallas ranked 29th in red zone TD%. There's a difference between something we need to do better and the main thing that we don't do well at all.

Let's say that in 2019, the combination of the extra deep throws themselves and the threat that they represent moves us up just ahead of the Chiefs to 41.6% in drives that reach the red zone (or score TD from outside it). Extrapolating Cooper's 11 games to 16, Dallas had 58 such possessions (of a total of 154) in 2018. That would only equal six extra red zone possessions (64 instead of 58) to get to 41.6%. To those extra red zone possessions we bring our same 29th-ranked red zone TD% from 2018. In other words, our ability to score in the red zone hasn't improved at all, but we've become the league's 2nd-best at getting into position to score.

(You could say that more big plays would decrease the duration of each drive, giving us more total possessions per game, and thus more than six extra red zone possessions in order to move up to 2nd place. In fact, that would be a more realistic scenario. But that would also give our opponents extra possessions too, meaning the defense would be spending more time on the field. So I'll stick to six extra possessions.)

Even improving from 7th to 2nd would only add 1.9 points per game to our 2018 average.

6 extra red zone possessions @ 4.975 points each = 29.9 points / 16 games = 1.9 points per game

Now keep the same number of red zone possessions, but increase the touchdown rate to that of 2nd place, which was the Chiefs (again) at 73.9%. The Chiefs scored 5.974 points per drive that either reached the red zone or scored TD from outside it, which was almost exactly one full point per drive more than the Cowboys. If Dallas has the same number of these possessions as it did with Cooper last year (3.6 per game), but increases its scoring rate to that of the 2018 Chiefs, then that's an extra 3.6 points per game.

I know that's a lot to digest, but the Cliff's Notes version is that being an elite red zone offense would be worth almost twice as many points per game to this offense as being elite at moving the ball into scoring position. The simple reason for that is that this offense was already pretty good at moving the ball in 2018, but was terrible in the red zone. Improving on something you already do well may be an easier fix, but you're better served by fixing something that doesn't work at all.

FWIW, I think we'll be better at both in 2019. I think 2018 revealed that our red zone success of the previous two years had little to do with Scott Linehan, and was more about the absence of Frederick, Witten, and Bryant. Frederick's return, to a lesser degree Witten's return, the continued improvement of Gallup, and the red zone success we saw toward the very end of last season all give reason for hope. And from what we've heard recently, we can expect a more aggressive offense in the first 3 quarters of games this year, instead of waiting until the 4th quarter.

 

[Typhus]

That's definitely one of the reasons, yes. In fact, let's say that it is the only reason, just for argument's sake. Here's the thing: That still doesn't make it the "fundamental problem" of the offense. I think you just overstated a bit, and don't want to back away from it, for whatever reason.

Since yards per drive don't always indicate success at reaching the red zone, I researched the percentage of all 32 teams' drives that reached the red zone (or scored TD from outside it) after the Cowboys traded for Cooper.

Weeks 8-18, 2018
% of drives that reached red zone
(includes TD scored from outside red zone)
1 NO 47.6
2 KC 41.5
3 LAR 40.2
4 IND 39.4
5 CAR 38.9
6 NE 38.5
7 DAL 37.7
8 TB 37.5
9 ATL 37.4
10 SEA 36.7

Could Dallas have been *better* at reaching the red zone? Of course. But logic eventually has to come into this at some point. Over the exact same stretch of games with Cooper, Dallas ranked 29th in red zone TD%. There's a difference between something we need to do better and the main thing that we don't do well at all.

Let's say that in 2019, the combination of the extra deep throws themselves and the threat that they represent moves us up just ahead of the Chiefs to 41.6% in drives that reach the red zone (or score TD from outside it). Extrapolating Cooper's 11 games to 16, Dallas had 58 such possessions (of a total of 154) in 2018. That would only equal six extra red zone possessions (64 instead of 58) to get to 41.6%. To those extra red zone possessions we bring our same 29th-ranked red zone TD% from 2018. In other words, our ability to score in the red zone hasn't improved at all, but we've become the league's 2nd-best at getting into position to score.

(You could say that more big plays would decrease the duration of each drive, giving us more total possessions per game, and thus more than six extra red zone possessions in order to move up to 2nd place. In fact, that would be a more realistic scenario. But that would also give our opponents extra possessions too, meaning the defense would be spending more time on the field. So I'll stick to six extra possessions.)

Even improving from 7th to 2nd would only add 1.9 points per game to our 2018 average.

6 extra red zone possessions @ 4.975 points each = 29.9 points / 16 games = 1.9 points per game

Now keep the same number of red zone possessions, but increase the touchdown rate to that of 2nd place, which was the Chiefs (again) at 73.9%. The Chiefs scored 5.974 points per drive that either reached the red zone or scored TD from outside it, which was almost exactly one full point per drive more than the Cowboys. If Dallas has the same number of these possessions as it did with Cooper last year (3.6 per game), but increases its scoring rate to that of the 2018 Chiefs, then that's an extra 3.6 points per game.

I know that's a lot to digest, but the Cliff's Notes version is that being an elite red zone offense would be worth almost twice as many points per game to this offense as being elite at moving the ball into scoring position. The simple reason for that is that this offense was already pretty good at moving the ball in 2018, but was terrible in the red zone. Improving on something you already do well may be an easier fix, but you're better served by fixing something that doesn't work at all.

FWIW, I think we'll be better at both in 2019. I think 2018 revealed that our red zone success of the previous two years had little to do with Scott Linehan, and was more about the absence of Frederick, Witten, and Bryant. Frederick's return, to a lesser degree Witten's return, the continued improvement of Gallup, and the red zone success we saw toward the very end of last season all give reason for hope. And from what we've heard recently, we can expect a more aggressive offense in the first 3 quarters of games this year, instead of waiting until the 4th quarter.

always good stuff Perch...

 

[DUO_CORE]

IIRC, 1999 I think, the Cowboy's had Irvin and Rocket Ismail. It looked promising until Irvin went down in Philly.

 

[OmerV]

it's not always about your top end speed in sports, but rather how quickly you can come up to that speed. initial acceleration is very important.

That’s true, plus any slight fake even if just with the head or shoulders that can cause the DB even the slightest hesitation or stutter step can allow the receiver a chance to get separation

 

[mahoneybill]

I disagree. They actually didn't have a speed guy that was worth anything. That was the biggest problem with the offense.

If they could grind it out and keep it close, they would overcome them with power in the 2nd half. But if they were down big and they had to start winging the ball....……….that 90's team was stuck. Aikman threw one of the worst deep balls I have ever seen. Who was going to get deep? Maybe Harper on occasion?

Aikman could throw a 30 yard out on a rope, but a touch deep ball that floated nice?...…………..not so much.

===========

In their first SB win it shocked me to see the Cowboys go pass instead of there normal get one longer completion and then grind Emmitt to the end zone....

The fact that Irvin scored multiple TD's, then one to Novacek , and one to Harper was very surprising.

 

[buybuydandavis]

coaches constantly talk about the importance of the deep game

Do they constantly say that they currently can't hit deep balls, and if they could, it would change everything?

 

[buybuydandavis]

That's definitely one of the reasons, yes. In fact, let's say that it is the only reason, just for argument's sake.

Nice dissertation on *one* sentence of what I wrote, ignoring everything else said.

In turn, I'll agree with *two* of your sentences.

 

[percyhoward]

Nice dissertation on *one* sentence of what I wrote, ignoring everything else said.

What would benefit this offense more: being better at getting into scoring position, or being better at scoring?

 

[buybuydandavis]

What would benefit this offense more: being better at getting into scoring position, or being better at scoring?

Genius! They should hire you.

"It's better to be better at scoring."

You are truly the next Landry.

 

[percyhoward]

You are truly the next Landry.

And you are truly avoiding my question.

 

[AsthmaField]

it's not always about your top end speed in sports, but rather how quickly you can come up to that speed. initial acceleration is very important.

Cooper has rare change of direction and acceleration. The guy goes from 0-60 in the blink of an eye.

With his ability to cut on a dime and then get back up to full speed... he’s got to be a nightmare for DB’s to cover.

Actually, Gallup is good in this aspect too, he’s just not super elite at it like Coop.

 

[Kaiser]

With his ability to cut on a dime and then get back up to full speed... he’s got to be a nightmare for DB’s to cover.

Amari Cooper is the only player I ever heard of that juked a DB into tearing a ligament while trying to cover him.

 

[Bohuntr97]

Cooper has rare change of direction and acceleration. The guy goes from 0-60 in the blink of an eye.

With his ability to cut on a dime and then get back up to full speed... he’s got to be a nightmare for DB’s to cover.

Actually, Gallup is good in this aspect too, he’s just not super elite at it like Coop.

Yep, Gallup just needs to develop. He has the ability.

 

[Number1]

Do they constantly say that they currently can't hit deep balls, and if they could, it would change everything?

generally - yes, the do, particularly in timing systems, more so than WCO, or rub systems
I won't bother to explain why

in this case, Garrett's been saying "this O will be special when we can can ht the 9 regularly" since they starting implementing, that was just after they signed a new WRC, flipping the WR corps last year with serious deep speed, and dumped a bunch of slow WRs

"this whole system depends on speed", in other words adios Scott and ball control
did you notice, the slowest WR likely make this team (Wilson) is faster than Dez, Twill, and Beasley? especially in terms of deep speed?

"change everything" for this team? ... another 7 points a game on average

I get the impression you are of the opinion they don't have the players. Really?