Defensive Passer Rating will once again doom this team

[Nation]

The Cowboys under Tony Romo have won double digit games in every season where the DPR has been 16th (so league average) or better. That really isn't asking much, but apparently it is. Defensive Passer Rating has been the other thing that has KILLED this team the past 3 seasons from postseason success.

2013:
Offensive Passer Rating: 6th
Defensive Passer Rating: 22nd
Passer Rating Differential: 12th (Top 5 Teams in Passer Rating Differential are a combined 45-15 currently; Equivalent of a 12.0 win season)

2012:
Offensive Passer Rating: 9th
Defensive Passer Rating: 29th
Passer Rating Differential:18th (Top 5 Teams in Passer Rating Differential went 59-20-1; Equivalent of a 11.8 win season)

2011:
Offensive Passer Rating: 4th
Defensive Passer Rating: 25th
Passer Rating Differential: 9th (Top 5 Teams in Passer Rating Differential went 63-17; Equivalent of a 12.6 win season)

To be in the top 5 in passer rating differential with no changes from the offense would require Dallas to have a 81.14 Defensive Passer Rating. That wouldn't require the Pass D be top ten in the league, but it seems virtually impossible at this stage in the game.

 

[Corso]

If this DL could have been healthy and in order- maybe things would have been different.

Maybe not...

Maybe they just need a serious infusion of talent there.

I hope the off-season truly addresses the lines.

Focus on the plural of that last sentence.

 

[dstovall5]

If we miss the playoffs again, it's obviously Tony Romo's fault. I mean, instead of having the 6th ranked passer rating, why couldn't he actually be good and have like top 2? If he did that then we'd probably be a playoff contender, he's obviously one of the problems that's causing this team to be mediocre. Cut him.

In all seriousness, your post will most likely fall on deaf ears. Everyone here knows the reason we're mediocre is due to our passing defense, but some will still stick to their schtick that Romo is a problem as well, when is reality he's one of our few strengths. Nice post.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I agree with the premise of this post.

I would love to see this team wind up in the top-10 of defensive passer rating.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Just for grins, even the playoff year of 2009, the defensive passer rating was 16th.

The last time the team was in the top-10 of defensive passer rating was 2007.

I've posted the numbers before, but year in and year out the sack ratings of the defense (the number of sacks achieved by the defense) has been consistently higher than the defensive passer ranking, which would seem to indicate that even being one of the better sacking teams over the last few years it hasn't panned out in a better defensive passer rating.

 

[Risen Star]

We need more cornerbacks.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

We need more cornerbacks.

Normally I would agree with you , but this team has had an army of players at ILB and safety who can't cover... Just one lousy cover guy after another.

 

[coult44]

New stats every day, I've never heard of this. But just for grins, I'd like to know. What's the defensive passer rating for teams like Seattle, New England, Denver, SF, Carolina, and lets say the Fecals???

 

[Idgit]

Yep. Well, if this team is doomed, it'll be because of defensive passer rating. That much is true, and it's what's handicapped us most of the season.

Turnovers and ST scoring might offset the passing effectiveness differential problem in a game or two, but, eventually, the poor pass defense is going to get us.

 

[Nation]

New stats every day, I've never heard of this. But just for grins, I'd like to know. What's the defensive passer rating for teams like Seattle, New England, Denver, SF, Carolina, and lets say the Fecals???

Seattle: 69.5 (1st)
New England: 76.7 (5th)
Denver: 85.9 (17th)
SF: 72.8 (3rd)
Carolina: 77.4 (6th)
Eagles: 83.6 (14th)

 

[percyhoward]

You'd think it shouldn't be that difficult to rank among the league's top 20 teams in pass offense (rating), pass defense (rating), and rushing TD. But since 2006, the Cowboys have only been able to do it three times.

NFL Rank in Off Pass Rating, Def Pass Rating, Rushing TD (avg of the 3)
bold = top 20
2006 8th, 20th, 3rd (avg 10th)
2007 4th, 5th, 10th (avg 6th)
2008 13th, 20th, 22nd (avg 18th)
2009 6th, 16th, 15th (avg 12th)
2010 12th, 29th, 21st (avg 21st)
2011 4th, 25th, 30th (avg 20th)
2012 9th, 29th, 27th (avg 22nd)
2013 6th, 22nd, 16th (avg 15th)

It's not a coincidence that the three times we ranked in the top 20 in all three categories (2006, 2007, and 2009) were also the only times we made the playoffs.

Another way to look at it. Only 12 teams make the playoffs. When the average of those three rankings is 12th or better, we make the playoffs.

 

[cowboysooner]

This team needs safeties.

 

[OhSnap]

Being on the plus side of turnovers has been able to help overcome the terrible numbers but the defense does need to come up with some better games against the pass down the stretch.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Seattle: 69.5 (1st)
New England: 76.7 (5th)
Denver: 85.9 (17th)
SF: 72.8 (3rd)
Carolina: 77.4 (6th)
Eagles: 83.6 (14th)

And Denver can get away with it why?

Well I think we know why.

But seriously if we used the other metric that seems to hold some validity when it comes to pass defense and that would be yards-per-attempt given up, we would see something similar, i.e. Dallas continually sucking year after year, with better (sometimes much better) teams in the top 10.

 

[coult44]

Seattle: 69.5 (1st)
New England: 76.7 (5th)
Denver: 85.9 (17th)
SF: 72.8 (3rd)
Carolina: 77.4 (6th)
Eagles: 83.6 (14th)

Thanks,
Just found the list. I'm for sure going to look at this more closely.

 

[coult44]

Maybe there is something to this..
1) Seattle in playoffs
3) SF in playoffs
4) Cincinnati in playoffs
5) NE in playoffs
6) Carolina in playoffs
8) KC in playoffs

But then again, maybe there is not..
12) NO in playoffs
17) Denver in playoffs
18) Baltimore in playoffs
20) Indy in playoffs
21) Detroit in playoffs
22) Dallas in playoffs

Will have to wait to see come week 17.

 

[Idgit]

Maybe there is something to this..
1) Seattle in playoffs
3) SF in playoffs
4) Cincinnati in playoffs
5) NE in playoffs
6) Carolina in playoffs
8) KC in playoffs

But then again, maybe there is not..
12) NO in playoffs
17) Denver in playoffs
18) Baltimore in playoffs
20) Indy in playoffs
21) Detroit in playoffs
22) Dallas in playoffs

Will have to wait to see come week 17.

It's the passing effectiveness differential that you have to look at, more than the pass defense efficiency. Teams like NO and DET and DEN and DAL can offset some of the porous pass defense with a relatively effective passing offense. But this is the reason we've been getting beat under Garrett (and before). It's the reason we added the two CBs last season, and drafted a S again relatively high last draft. And, along with the need to get takeaways, it's the reason Rob Ryan is not in Dallas and that Kiffin and Marinelli are. Obviously, the team sees what the issue is, and we've tried to address it. It's a bit alarming that we haven't been able to make any progress to speak of.

 

[dstovall5]

You'd think it shouldn't be that difficult to rank among the league's top 20 teams in pass offense (rating), pass defense (rating), and rushing TD. But since 2006, the Cowboys have only been able to do it three times.

NFL Rank in Off Pass Rating, Def Pass Rating, Rushing TD (avg of the 3)
bold = top 20
2006 8th, 20th, 3rd (avg 10th)
2007 4th, 5th, 10th (avg 6th)
2008 13th, 20th, 22nd (avg 18th)
2009 6th, 16th, 15th (avg 12th)
2010 12th, 29th, 21st (avg 21st)
2011 4th, 25th, 30th (avg 20th)
2012 9th, 29th, 27th (avg 22nd)
2013 6th, 22nd, 16th (avg 15th)

It's not a coincidence that the three times we ranked in the top 20 in all three categories (2006, 2007, and 2009) were also the only times we made the playoffs.

Another way to look at it. Only 12 teams make the playoffs. When the average of those three rankings is 12th or better, we make the playoffs.

Lets hope that's not a trend that continues, because then that would mean we're once again at home in January. Seeing as we're 15th, barely out of the top 12.

 

[coult44]

It's the passing effectiveness differential that you have to look at, more than the pass defense efficiency. Teams like NO and DET and DEN and DAL can offset some of the porous pass defense with a relatively effective passing offense. But this is the reason we've been getting beat under Garrett (and before). It's the reason we added the two CBs last season, and drafted a S again relatively high last draft. And, along with the need to get takeaways, it's the reason Rob Ryan is not in Dallas and that Kiffin and Marinelli are. Obviously, the team sees what the issue is, and we've tried to address it. It's a bit alarming that we haven't been able to make any progress to speak of.

Perhaps we haven't made progress because of one of those corners, and the safety we invested high picks in are proving they weren't worth those high of picks....I still believe we could have taken Eric Reid and still got Frederick.

 

[Nation]

It's the passing effectiveness differential that you have to look at, more than the pass defense efficiency. Teams like NO and DET and DEN and DAL can offset some of the porous pass defense with a relatively effective passing offense. But this is the reason we've been getting beat under Garrett (and before). It's the reason we added the two CBs last season, and drafted a S again relatively high last draft. And, along with the need to get takeaways, it's the reason Rob Ryan is not in Dallas and that Kiffin and Marinelli are. Obviously, the team sees what the issue is, and we've tried to address it. It's a bit alarming that we haven't been able to make any progress to speak of.

I think the corners and safeties would be more than fine if we had elite front four play