Perhaps I am wrong but my experience, hearing and reading some critics' opinions, is that judgment is made with little-to-zero regard for where in the draft a player is selected. Instead, the assumption is made almost or entirely from a personal assessment of whether or not a player can succeed immensely at the professional level.
Risk is more of an afterthought. Concern centers upon a player improving the team significantly, starting with week one of their rookie season. Players, not meeting this personal expectation, are usually summarily dismissed as roster liabilities.