DMN Blog: Cowboys visiting with Igor Olshansky

Avenging Hayseed

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Woods;2675418 said:
I really think we should sign this guy.

Reasons:

1. Wade knows him very well. His strengths and weaknesses.

2. We have a need on the DL after losing Canty and parting ways with Tank.

3. We brought him in for a 2 day visit. That's a lot of time to spend on a potential recruit.

4. We DO have enough money under the cap, even taking into account Ware, to pick Igor up for $5-6mm per year.

There, I feel more confident now that we'll sign him. I've convinced myself. :)
Lets hope so. I think he will be a fine replacement for Canty. In fact, I think he will be even better against the run than Canty was. GetRdone Jerry....
 

AdamJT13

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AbeBeta;2675370 said:
Of course much of the error in measurement discussed can be accounted for as I explained (or even more finely tuned by doing it on a game by game basis) but obviously not enough to make the metric close enough to satisfy you.

I'd be satisfied if they created at least one more category of tackles and had each statistician try to use the same method of recording them.

As far as the numbers from previous seasons, like I said, it's far too much work for the value of the information produced, if you ask me. And how, exactly, do you propose accounting for the different methods used other than looking at each game (if not each play)?
 

Woods

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Avenging Hayseed;2675424 said:
Lets hope so. I think he will be a fine replacement for Canty. In fact, I think he will be even better against the run than Canty was. GetRdone Jerry....

Hopefully we hear something concrete late tonight or tomorrow.

Fingers crossed.
 

Dallas4ever

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Chocolate Lab;2671302 said:
Exactly. It's not that Canty was horrible and Igor will be All-Pro. It's that you'd be getting pretty much the same player at a lot cheaper price.

It would be one less hole we don't have to fill in the draft. And it would be with a very solid player who already knows the system, to boot.


This is solid logic but I don't see this system being around after next year. I hope we don't do a long term deal with him.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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AbeBeta;2675319 said:
I'm not the only claiming that the stat is inaccurate because of that issue and I never called for using the stat to DIRECTLY compare players, I suggested ways that you would reduce considerably any measurement error that came into play and noted what the solo tackle stat DOES tell you.

Of course, I wouldn't expect you to understand anything that complex or nuanced.

Whatever dude. How about you explain what an acceptable degree of error is. I would really be interested what you think that is and I will bet that your explanation will demonstrate that you have no grasp of statistics.
 

AbeBeta

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AdamJT13;2675414 said:
Yes, you probably can glean some information when there is a huge discrepancy in the numbers.

And yes, you would have to adjust the numbers to account for the different methods used to record them.

That's much different from what you proposed -- judging players on different teams based on comparing them to their teammates. Would you judge receivers based on their percentage of their teams' wide receiver corps' receiving yards? Larry Fitzgerald had 29 percent of his team's receiving yards. Braylon Edwards had 34 percent of his. Does that mean Edwards (873 yards) was somehow superior, more productive or more involved in the passing game than Fitzgerald (1,431 yards)?

Or would you judge a defensive back based on his percentage of his secondary's interceptions? Terence Newman had 57 percent of his secondary's interceptions, and Ed Reed had 50 percent of his. Does that make Newman (four INTs) more of a ballhawk than Reed (nine)?

There is no need to adjust those numbers because, as is, they represent statistics that are completely different than tackles. Different criteria are not used so there is no reason to adjust them. Second, and more importantly, it is a completely different type of data. You'll have a limited range of solo tackles recorded for teams at the end of the year whereas receiving yards can vary by over 2,000 yards.

The interception statistics provide a particularly lame example as you know as well as I do that any statistic of this nature that is based on very small numbers (e.g., our total interceptions last year) is not going to be representative enough to tell us much.


OK, so we've established that a 17 percent difference in the raw tackle numbers could be entirely irrelevant, without even taking into account the flaws of the numbers themselves.

How about a 25 percent difference? If Player A had 40 "solo" tackles on a defensive line with 135, and Player B had 30 "solo" tackles on a defensive line with 100, who was more involved in tackles? Or were they "about the same"?

Shall we keep going? Player A had 28 "solo" tackles on a defensive line with 125. Player B had 20 solo tackles on a defensive line with 90. Who was more involved in tackles? Still "about the same"?

Look, you can't argue that a big raw % difference matters while at the same time arguing that the tackle metric as it stands is not meaningful.

In all of the cases you present, the players were involved in tackling at roughly the same level. Of course there are other questions to be addressed. For example why are the two defensive lines so different in terms of the number of tackles overall? Was this a dominant D with a ton of three and outs? Or did the D-line play a ton of ole'? As with ANY statistic, it is just one piece of the evaluation.

I'm certainly not saying this specific metric is perfect, but is something that can reasonably allow for comparisons between players in a manner that is much more sound than simply comparing raw tackles. Of course, you are presenting the statistics as if that ONE metric would be the only means of evaluation - which we both know is not a reasonable approach.
 

Stash

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Dallas4ever;2675498 said:
This is solid logic but I don't see this system being around after next year. I hope we don't do a long term deal with him.

Really?

You think they'll ditch the 3-4 defense?

Not me.

In fact, I can see Coach Cupcake officially taking the step down to defensive coordinator. (as opposed to now when it's unofficial!)
 

AbeBeta

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FuzzyLumpkins;2675519 said:
Whatever dude. How about you explain what an acceptable degree of error is. I would really be interested what you think that is and I will bet that your explanation will demonstrate that you have no grasp of statistics.

Yes, I have no grasp of statistics. Good one.

The embarrassing thing for you is that you THINK you know about statistics yet when confronted with someone who has a background in the area you don't understand it so, instead of admitting your own ignorance, you claim they know nothing.
 

Stash

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Texan_Eph89;2675537 said:
Anyone find it ironic that the main color of his products is red?

Isn't he Russian or something?
 

AbeBeta

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AdamJT13;2675428 said:
I'd be satisfied if they created at least one more category of tackles and had each statistician try to use the same method of recording them.

As far as the numbers from previous seasons, like I said, it's far too much work for the value of the information produced, if you ask me. And how, exactly, do you propose accounting for the different methods used other than looking at each game (if not each play)?

Of course, the tackle stat is always going to involve judgment so there will always be error in it, no matter what category they create or what criteria are used.

Again, as I noted, if you adjust - by game seems more relevant -- you'll end up with a more standard value that can be compared more directly across players. Again, you aren't going to get numbers that are so clean that you will make fine distinctions between players -- but realistically what statistic really does that?
 

Avenging Hayseed

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AbeBeta;2675532 said:
Yes, I have no grasp of statistics. Good one.

The embarrassing thing for you is that you THINK you know about statistics yet when confronted with someone who has a background in the area you don't understand it so, instead of admitting your own ignorance, you claim they know nothing.
:horse::yathink:
 

AbeBeta

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Avenging Hayseed;2675558 said:
:horse::yathink:

You are right. Noting that Fuzzy is ignorant is beating a dead horse. It has been very well established on this board for years.
 

Avenging Hayseed

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stasheroo;2675571 said:
That's where I figure the color red comes from.
Yep, marketing play on the old Soviet colors. But in all reality ukrainians despise Russians with a passion.:mad:
 

Woods

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Avenging Hayseed;2675587 said:
Yep, marketing play on the old Soviet colors. But in all reality ukrainians despise Russians with a passion.:mad:

Yhea, I was wondering about that as well.

I've been to Kiev on business. They really dislike Russians.

(But it's a great party place . . . . if you're single. Unfortunately, I'm not. :( )
 
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