DMN Blog: Football Outsiders: Is Roy Williams really an upgrade over Patrick Crayton?

[big dog cowboy]

DMN Blog: Football Outsiders: Is Roy Williams really an upgrade over Patrick Crayton?

If you have to ask, that is all I need to know.

 

[wick]

The fatal flaw with football statistics is the sample size. With such few games played, the margin of error on a given statistic is huge, which renders it almost meaningless. This group is trying to apply Sabrmetrics to football, but the baseball season has 10 times as many games, so the statistics there are a much more meaningful. The football stats are largely meaningless as predictors of future outcomes, so I just ignore them.

 

[sk0aL]

This guy reminds me of your standard economist. He can give you all sorts of fancy models that will predict performance, but when the exact opposite happens he just shrugs and says, "All models are prone to deviation."

Rubbish, indeed.

 

[Kangaroo]

I think one reason Crayton has a high percentage is that when he usually gets the ball, it's the result of Romo having a ton of time and finding his last read (Crayton) who just happens to finally be running open after four or five seconds. He's a solid player, but he's a product of this offense statistically. Anyone really think he's an 800-yard receiver anywhere else?

I mean, this is an offense that makes Sam Hurd look like a competent NFL receiver who is running wide open at times. And I think stylistically, Hurd and Crayton compare quite a bit.

When was the last time you didn't see Crayton make a wide-open catch? Again, as I often say, maybe this is a case of my eyes deceiving me. But I can't recall too much catches where he simply beat a player, made a physical play, etc. And when he's wide open, I wouldn't exactly say it's because of his physical attributes.

Lastly on Crayton, the last three games, since Austin's emergence, he has become much more effective because we're putting him in the slot more. Well, he now can permanently go there.

Plus, yes, as the writer points out, having Romo will make you catch a higher percentage of passes, you would think, than Kitna and Orlovsky.

Crayton could put up solid numbers in any offense he was in the slot

He is a good wr to have in the slot position he is more quick than fast he is a solid NFL wr and there is no shame in that he produces and he plays hard and he blocks hard. Is a great #2 no he can fill in as an ok #2 due to injuries he is better as a #3 wr

Like i said there is no shame in what Crayton is a solid player who sometimes makes a great play. Superbowl teams need guys like him to co-exist with the superstars

 

[CrazyCowboy]

you could tell....this person does not really know what he is doing.

 

[Phantom]

Is he? He has to prove it. He has been pretty mediorcre in Detroit since his pro-bowl season. Is that because of the quarterback? The offensive system(Mike Martz does run a pass happy offense)? The losing enviornment?

We better hope Roy pans out, because if he doesn't we are some big trouble.

 

[NoLuv4Jerry]

do the guys that are always trumping statistics EVER watch the game....do they see how many times Marion Barber gets hit in the backfield...how many 3 and outs we have on offense...especially after the defense had just been on the field for a long drive, how long Tony has to hold onto the ball because Crayton and Witten take a while to get open, how teams with the personell to play man coverage frustrate this offense? This offense is built for long routes and quick strikes. Whether that is good or bad is another debate. But the bottom line is this team was not going to be very succesful against teams withe personel man up our WRs. Heck it has worked so well that teams have copycat that formula...even when they really do NOT have the personell to play tough press coverage!

 

[DallasEast]

ding ding ding

Statistically Crayton is very comparable to Roy #11 past two years. Those with the Kitna cracks note he threw for 8,000 yards in a two season timeframe.

We overpaid for Roy #11. But he's from Texas.

Typical.

 

[Bleu Star]

Typical.

Hey you relax!

 

[Nors]

Originally Posted by Nors
Crayton and Roy #11 have started 17 games past two years.

A) 2007 50-697 7TD'S 13.9 YPC
2008 19-291 2 TD's 15.3 YPC

B) 2007 64-838 5 TD's 13.1 YPC
2008 17-232 1 TD 13.6 YPC


Note: Kitna passed for 8,276 yards 2006-2007. So lets remove that excuse upfront.

Not much difference at all production wise. Who is who?

 

[AdamJT13]

Statistically Crayton is very comparable to Roy #11 past two years. Those with the Kitna cracks note he threw for 8,000 yards in a two season timeframe.

Total yards are irrelevant to the discussion in this thread. Barnwell's argument is based on DVOA, and Kitna's average DVOA over the previous two seasons is minus-20.45, which is terrible. This year, it's minus-19.8, which is terrible. His replacement, Dan Orlovsky, has a minus-33.0 DVOA, which is even more terrible.

 

[DallasEast]

Hey you relax!

:laugh2:

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The fatal flaw with football statistics is the sample size. With such few games played, the margin of error on a given statistic is huge, which renders it almost meaningless. This group is trying to apply Sabrmetrics to football, but the baseball season has 10 times as many games, so the statistics there are a much more meaningful. The football stats are largely meaningless as predictors of future outcomes, so I just ignore them.

Exactly , whats sad is that he thinks that 39 passes is a significant sample size. Both players have been in the league for multiple years and if he would have looked at the larger sample size he could have made a decent point.

He doesnt.

 

[DaBoys4Life]

Total yards are irrelevant to the discussion in this thread. Barnwell's argument is based on DVOA, and Kitna's average DVOA over the previous two seasons is minus-20.45, which is terrible. This year, it's minus-19.8, which is terrible. His replacement, Dan Orlovsky, has a minus-33.0 DVOA, which is even more terrible.

I think trying to prove a point to Nors is like talking to a brick wall......and you can't tell him Dan Orlovsky sucks he will through his 95 QB rating in your face.....

 

[AdamJT13]

I think trying to prove a point to Nors is like talking to a brick wall......and you can't tell him Dan Orlovsky sucks he will through his 95 QB rating in your face.....

Maybe Nors is dyslexic. Orlovsky's passer rating is 59, not 95.

 

[73Allen73]

I've been lurking for a while but I've finally found the thread to jump in on......FO continues to give me a chuckle. Talk about analysis paralysis! Can you imagine fielding a team based on their stats?

My boss reminds us at all times to 'measure what you value, don't value what you measure'.

Football stats are far more disconnected from the production of a player than any other sport. And the more anyone tries to develop more accurate and/or true measure of a position's performance, the more disconnected the numbers become.

I work with numbers quite a bit and can always find a backdoor to reach a different conclusion using the same data. That said I recognize the need for some sort of base line measurement but debating stats gets tedious and almost always ends up as an debate over the 'interpretion' of the stats. There's a member on 'the other' Boys forum that argues the Giants aren't a bonafide SB Champ because they didn't win 'right'. How about that?!

That's cheating. SB Champs aren't subject to debate, that's just plain anarchy!

 

[zeromaster]

This is a garbage article starting from the title and drilling down into the lack of substance.

No drill was required; it was more like a strainer...

 

[joseephuss]

Pacman's loss more significant that Felix's loss?

Oh hell no.

I can see a case for Pacman's loss being somewhat significant. The reason being that Newman is injured and not playing and the replacements will be rookies. I like what I have seen from both rookies, but they are still rookies. Dallas loses Felix, but they still have starter Barber in place and Choice has some talent. It is not Pacman alone, but the whole situation. If Newman were healthy, it would not be as much of an issue.