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Five Downs With Football Outsiders: Terrell Owens has been terrible
7:30 AM Fri, Nov 21, 2008 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz
Tim MacMahon http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg E-mail http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg News tips
Bill Barnwell, a contributing editor at footballoutsiders.com and one of the minds behind the must-read Pro Football Prospectus, will answer five Cowboys questions each week of the season using the FO data and methodologies. Here's the Week 12 edition:
1. Among receivers with at least 33 passes thrown their way, Terrell Owens ranks in the bottom five in Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement and bottom 10 in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. How does this compare to the rest of his career? Has there been another receiver in recent memory to have such a drastic drop-off?
It's undoubtedly the worst performance of TO's career. Even as a young guy in the San Francisco offense, he was always showing loads of potential, he just (ironically) wasn't getting the ball enough. Now, he can give all the interviews to Deion Sanders about how stuff happens when he gets the ball that he wants, but it's not reality. His previous low in DVOA was -2.0% in 1999, which ranked 43rd in the league; he's at -23.1% this year, 71st among qualifiers.
Among receivers of TO's caliber, it's hard to find a similar guy. Randy Moss in Oakland sorta qualifies, but he went to a totally different offensive scheme and started putting up poor numbers. The closest comparison I could find would be what happened to David Boston in 2001 and 2002, but Boston had injuries to blame. Owens is not only catching fewer of the passes thrown in his direction (49% catch rate, down from 56% last year), he's also gaining fewer yards per catch (12.6, down from 16.9). He's simply not getting the sort of separation he needs to get to be effective. Whether that's because he's being bumped at the line or because of age is impossible to separate. Short a major boost with Tony Romo in the lineup, it's safe to project that Terrell Owens isn't a number one guy anymore.
2. How does the offensive line's performance in the key FO statistical categories compare in Kyle Kosier's two starts (wins over Green Bay and Washington) to the rest of the season?
Marion Barber's DVOA in those two games was 1.5% and 17.6%, respectively. The latter was his third-best game of the year, after Week 1 and Week 7. I think the bigger concern with the running game -- and the performance of the offensive line as judged by it -- is actually the return of Romo, not the loss of Kosier. Our research into injuries has shown us that injuries to the quarterback actually affect the performance of the running game more than injuries to the offensive line or, believe it or not, even the running back.
Having Romo back will have a much bigger impact on the running game and the sack rate than Kosier.
3. Where are the Cowboys most vulnerable against the run? Where do the 49ers run the ball best?
The Cowboys are most vulnerable when teams run at the left side of their defense (right side of the offense). They rank 30th in the league in our Adjusted Line Yards statistic at runs to right tackle, and 29th at runs to right end. They're in the top-14 on runs to the other side. That's on Marcus Spears, shockingly enough. Anthony Spencer is also no great shakes in run support yet.
Fortunately for the Cowboys, the 49ers are significantly better on the other side of the field. They're third in the league at runs to left end, and also third in the league at runs up the middle. 59% of their runs are up the middle (against a league average of 50%), so expect Jay Ratliff to have a big day.
It's going to be essential for Bradie James and Zach Thomas to plug the gaps alongside Ratliff, and for Ware and Burnett to eliminate the angles for Frank Gore to cut back and bounce plays outside.
4. What would you project Tony Romo's stats to be the rest of the season?
In our book, we projected Romo for a 61.8% completion percentage and an average of 7.1 yards per attempt. This year, he's completed 64.8% of the passes thrown to him and averaged 8.3 yards per attempt, exceeding our expectations in both regards. Some of that has been the issue of third-down luck, but Romo's consistently been a tricky player for our system to figure out -- I really think it's because he's such a rare player and his skillset is so unique.
Considering the difficulty of the defenses he's going to face and the likelihood that he's going to give back at least some of that third down performance, I'm going to say that over the last six games of the year, his line will be something like 127-of-205 for 1575 yards with nine touchdowns against six interceptions. That assumes he stays healthy.
5. How many Pro Bowlers do the Cowboys deserve to have at this point of the season?
Well, first, I wouldn't consider this list to be a list of guys who are likely to make or not make the Pro Bowl. A lot of Pro Bowlers make their case in the final few games of the year, simply because that's the most recent performances that the electorate sees. Either way, here's some comments on who I think does and doesn't deserve to make it to Hawaii:
- No to Tony Romo. It's not that Romo isn't valuable, but even if he plays six more games at his established level of play, how do you put him in ahead of Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Kurt Warner, or Eli Manning? He's a step behind them all.
- Yes to Marion Barber. I know his stats are down, and I'm not one to often make this sort of argument, but you can't ignore the importance he had to that Cowboys offense without Romo -- basically because he was the offense.
- No to the wide receivers. Yes to Jason Witten, who deserves the throws that TO is whining about not getting.
- Yes to Leonard Davis, although he's taken a step back from last year. No to everyone else. There are so many qualified linemen ahead of the Cowboys' group this year: Snee, O'Hara, Gross, Heitmann, Hutchinson, Kendall....
- Yes to Jay Ratliff, who's been the best defensive tackle in the NFC this year. Yes, better than the Williamses in Minnesota.
- Yes to DeMarcus Ware, who continues to get sacks (and QB hits, and hurries) despite being the team's only real dominant pass rusher. No to everyone else, including Bradie James, who doesn't make it ahead of Patrick Willis, Jonathan Vilma, London Fletcher, or Brian Urlacher at middle linebacker.
- No to anyone in the secondary or anyone on special teams.
So, then: Barber, Witten, Davis, Ratliff, Ware. That's less than half of the 2007 group, but then again, this team's 6-4. Five Pro Bowlers are a lot for a 10-win team.
7:30 AM Fri, Nov 21, 2008 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz
Tim MacMahon http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg E-mail http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg News tips
Bill Barnwell, a contributing editor at footballoutsiders.com and one of the minds behind the must-read Pro Football Prospectus, will answer five Cowboys questions each week of the season using the FO data and methodologies. Here's the Week 12 edition:
1. Among receivers with at least 33 passes thrown their way, Terrell Owens ranks in the bottom five in Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement and bottom 10 in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. How does this compare to the rest of his career? Has there been another receiver in recent memory to have such a drastic drop-off?
It's undoubtedly the worst performance of TO's career. Even as a young guy in the San Francisco offense, he was always showing loads of potential, he just (ironically) wasn't getting the ball enough. Now, he can give all the interviews to Deion Sanders about how stuff happens when he gets the ball that he wants, but it's not reality. His previous low in DVOA was -2.0% in 1999, which ranked 43rd in the league; he's at -23.1% this year, 71st among qualifiers.
Among receivers of TO's caliber, it's hard to find a similar guy. Randy Moss in Oakland sorta qualifies, but he went to a totally different offensive scheme and started putting up poor numbers. The closest comparison I could find would be what happened to David Boston in 2001 and 2002, but Boston had injuries to blame. Owens is not only catching fewer of the passes thrown in his direction (49% catch rate, down from 56% last year), he's also gaining fewer yards per catch (12.6, down from 16.9). He's simply not getting the sort of separation he needs to get to be effective. Whether that's because he's being bumped at the line or because of age is impossible to separate. Short a major boost with Tony Romo in the lineup, it's safe to project that Terrell Owens isn't a number one guy anymore.
2. How does the offensive line's performance in the key FO statistical categories compare in Kyle Kosier's two starts (wins over Green Bay and Washington) to the rest of the season?
Marion Barber's DVOA in those two games was 1.5% and 17.6%, respectively. The latter was his third-best game of the year, after Week 1 and Week 7. I think the bigger concern with the running game -- and the performance of the offensive line as judged by it -- is actually the return of Romo, not the loss of Kosier. Our research into injuries has shown us that injuries to the quarterback actually affect the performance of the running game more than injuries to the offensive line or, believe it or not, even the running back.
Having Romo back will have a much bigger impact on the running game and the sack rate than Kosier.
3. Where are the Cowboys most vulnerable against the run? Where do the 49ers run the ball best?
The Cowboys are most vulnerable when teams run at the left side of their defense (right side of the offense). They rank 30th in the league in our Adjusted Line Yards statistic at runs to right tackle, and 29th at runs to right end. They're in the top-14 on runs to the other side. That's on Marcus Spears, shockingly enough. Anthony Spencer is also no great shakes in run support yet.
Fortunately for the Cowboys, the 49ers are significantly better on the other side of the field. They're third in the league at runs to left end, and also third in the league at runs up the middle. 59% of their runs are up the middle (against a league average of 50%), so expect Jay Ratliff to have a big day.
It's going to be essential for Bradie James and Zach Thomas to plug the gaps alongside Ratliff, and for Ware and Burnett to eliminate the angles for Frank Gore to cut back and bounce plays outside.
4. What would you project Tony Romo's stats to be the rest of the season?
In our book, we projected Romo for a 61.8% completion percentage and an average of 7.1 yards per attempt. This year, he's completed 64.8% of the passes thrown to him and averaged 8.3 yards per attempt, exceeding our expectations in both regards. Some of that has been the issue of third-down luck, but Romo's consistently been a tricky player for our system to figure out -- I really think it's because he's such a rare player and his skillset is so unique.
Considering the difficulty of the defenses he's going to face and the likelihood that he's going to give back at least some of that third down performance, I'm going to say that over the last six games of the year, his line will be something like 127-of-205 for 1575 yards with nine touchdowns against six interceptions. That assumes he stays healthy.
5. How many Pro Bowlers do the Cowboys deserve to have at this point of the season?
Well, first, I wouldn't consider this list to be a list of guys who are likely to make or not make the Pro Bowl. A lot of Pro Bowlers make their case in the final few games of the year, simply because that's the most recent performances that the electorate sees. Either way, here's some comments on who I think does and doesn't deserve to make it to Hawaii:
- No to Tony Romo. It's not that Romo isn't valuable, but even if he plays six more games at his established level of play, how do you put him in ahead of Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Kurt Warner, or Eli Manning? He's a step behind them all.
- Yes to Marion Barber. I know his stats are down, and I'm not one to often make this sort of argument, but you can't ignore the importance he had to that Cowboys offense without Romo -- basically because he was the offense.
- No to the wide receivers. Yes to Jason Witten, who deserves the throws that TO is whining about not getting.
- Yes to Leonard Davis, although he's taken a step back from last year. No to everyone else. There are so many qualified linemen ahead of the Cowboys' group this year: Snee, O'Hara, Gross, Heitmann, Hutchinson, Kendall....
- Yes to Jay Ratliff, who's been the best defensive tackle in the NFC this year. Yes, better than the Williamses in Minnesota.
- Yes to DeMarcus Ware, who continues to get sacks (and QB hits, and hurries) despite being the team's only real dominant pass rusher. No to everyone else, including Bradie James, who doesn't make it ahead of Patrick Willis, Jonathan Vilma, London Fletcher, or Brian Urlacher at middle linebacker.
- No to anyone in the secondary or anyone on special teams.
So, then: Barber, Witten, Davis, Ratliff, Ware. That's less than half of the 2007 group, but then again, this team's 6-4. Five Pro Bowlers are a lot for a 10-win team.
