DMN Blog: What they are saying in Atlanta

[WoodysGirl]

Checking in from Atlanta


9:28 AM Mon, Oct 26, 2009 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz
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Here's the look at what they're saying in Atlanta about the Falcons' 37-21 loss to the Cowboys Sunday.

This was the worse loss suffered by Atlanta in Mike Smith's tenure.

Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal Constitution is wondering what happened to Michael Turner.

D. Orlando Ledbetter gives us the keys to the game.

The Falcons defense had no answer for Tony Romo.

And we hear what the game meant to former Falcon Keith Brooking.

 

[Faerluna]

From Jeff Schultz's article:

That’s how a charmed existence suddenly blows like a Peep in a microwave.

:laugh2:

 

[Future]

It is curious that Atls run offense has been so bad this year.

 

[StanleySpadowski]

It is curious that Atls run offense has been so bad this year.

Look at backs who get 400 carries a season (I realize Turner "only" had 376 but it was his first year as "the man") and watch their production the following season.

Add a TE that looks at blocking as an afterthought these days and it was a recipe for failure.

 

[Zman5]

Maybe they have the same "we can't hurt the players feeling" syndrome we have. If I was ATL, I would have played Snelling(sp?) more. He was killing us while Turner was doing nothing.

 

[theebs]

Yesterday we saw the dynamic that cowboys fans have been screaming about.

Wade phillips easy going demeanor vs mike smith screaming and yelling all day.

Everyone wants the screamer. The screamer got his lunch eaten yesterday. smith and mularkey got worked over pretty good yesterday, it was nice for a change.

 

[speedkilz88]

I did think that Mularkey made some nice calls at times that extended their drives.

 

[RS12]

Yesterday we saw the dynamic that cowboys fans have been screaming about.

Wade phillips easy going demeanor vs mike smith screaming and yelling all day.

Everyone wants the screamer. The screamer got his lunch eaten yesterday. smith and mularkey got worked over pretty good yesterday, it was nice for a change.

I saw it more as an attacking defense rather than a reactionary, passive one.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Look at backs who get 400 carries a season (I realize Turner "only" had 376 but it was his first year as "the man") and watch their production the following season.

Add a TE that looks at blocking as an afterthought these days and it was a recipe for failure.

Football Outsiders calls it the "Curse of 370" and predicted Turner's demise this season for that reason.

 

[theebs]

I saw it more as an attacking defense rather than a reactionary, passive one.

yes absolutely and that is because I think wade phillips knew what was coming, much like in denver. It seemed we had the offensive calls as the game wore on. Guys were exactly where they were supposed to be.

and it looks like that is becoming a trend, and that is a credit to Wade Phillips first. For all the negative things said about him, myself included in that group, when you see guys playing defense the way we did, he is to be credited.

 

[austintodallas]

Quote from the Brooking article lol...

"Atlanta prides themselves on being physical, but they didn’t outphysical us today,’’ he said. "We took it to them. We bloodied their noses, and then we stepped on them and kicked them to the ground. So that’s a good feeling.

Man I love this dude! :laugh2:

 

[StanleySpadowski]

Football Outsiders calls it the "Curse of 370" and predicted Turner's demise this season for that reason.

Ok then, 370.

I'm amazed that teams don't look at statistics like this sometimes. Baseball is overly reliant on some statistics like pitch count or innings pitched at times but when there's such a high coorelation between x (the number of carries in a season) and y (diminished production the following season), I find it hard to believe that NFL teams don't have some sort of "Joba rules" for their players.

 

[jterrell]

Quote from the Brooking article lol...

"Atlanta prides themselves on being physical, but they didn’t outphysical us today,’’ he said. "We took it to them. We bloodied their noses, and then we stepped on them and kicked them to the ground. So that’s a good feeling.

Man I love this dude! :laugh2:

me too!

This is how a leader talks to his teammates and fires them up.
His excitement and intensity is insane.

We were the more physical team.
When Mike Jenkins is waylaying people... Katy, bar the door.

 

[RS12]

Quote from the Brooking article lol...

"Atlanta prides themselves on being physical, but they didn’t outphysical us today,’’ he said. "We took it to them. We bloodied their noses, and then we stepped on them and kicked them to the ground. So that’s a good feeling.

Man I love this dude! :laugh2:

Yep, and I bet when his career is over, he makes an excellent coach.

 

[Colo]

butt hurt

 

[Cover 2]

Yesterday we saw the dynamic that cowboys fans have been screaming about.

Wade phillips easy going demeanor vs mike smith screaming and yelling all day.

Everyone wants the screamer. The screamer got his lunch eaten yesterday. smith and mularkey got worked over pretty good yesterday, it was nice for a change.

Yes they do

 

[joseephuss]

Ok then, 370.

I'm amazed that teams don't look at statistics like this sometimes. Baseball is overly reliant on some statistics like pitch count or innings pitched at times but when there's such a high coorelation between x (the number of carries in a season) and y (diminished production the following season), I find it hard to believe that NFL teams don't have some sort of "Joba rules" for their players.

It is a little surprising with Turner because he only had 6 receptions last year to go along with his 376 rushing attempts. Most of the guys that have had over 370 rushing attempts in a season also had a decent amount of pass receptions to go along with them, which really up the total amount of touches they had in a year. While Turners 376 rushing attempts last year ranks 20th in NFL history for a single season, his 382 touches ranks 71st.

 

[JD_KaPow]

It is a little surprising with Turner because he only had 6 receptions last year to go along with his 376 rushing attempts. Most of the guys that have had over 370 rushing attempts in a season also had a decent amount of pass receptions to go along with them, which really up the total amount of touches they had in a year. While Turners 376 rushing attempts last year ranks 20th in NFL history for a single season, his 382 touches ranks 71st.

Yes, but FO concluded that receptions don't matter, for whatever reason (less pounding, I assume). Here's their summary (note that their data doesn't yet go back to Emmitt's 370+ seasons - he may join Eric Dickerson as their exceptions):

A running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or a loss of effectiveness the following year, unless he is named Eric Dickerson.

Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson, and Edgerrin James all blew out their knees. Larry Johnson broke his foot. Earl Campbell and Eddie George went from legendary powerhouses to plodding, replacement-level players. Shaun Alexander broke his foot and became a plodding, replacement-level player. This is what happens when a running back is overworked to the point of having at least 370 carries during the regular season.

The "Curse of 370" was expanded in Pro Football Prospectus 2006 to include seasons with 390 or more carries in the regular season and postseason combined. Research also shows that receptions don't cause a problem, only workload on the ground.

Plenty of running backs get injured without hitting 370 carries in a season, but there is a clear difference. On average, running backs with 300 to 369 carries and no postseason appearance will see their total rushing yardage decline by 15 percent the following year and their yards per carry decline by two percent. The average running back with 370 or more regular-season carries, or 390 including the postseason, will see their rushing yardage decline by 35 percent, and their yards per carry decline by eight percent.
Research in Pro Football Prospectus 2008 suggests that overuse in college does not create a problem for top prospects, but also shows that players chosen after the first round rarely have a successful NFL career after a college season over 330 carries.

 

[Duane]

me too!

This is how a leader talks to his teammates and fires them up.
His excitement and intensity is insane.

We were the more physical team.
When Mike Jenkins is waylaying people... Katy, bar the door.

Outside of Ratliff and Ware, Jenkins may be the best player on this defense.

 

[joseephuss]

Yes, but FO concluded that receptions don't matter, for whatever reason (less pounding, I assume). Here's their summary (note that their data doesn't yet go back to Emmitt's 370+ seasons - he may join Eric Dickerson as their exceptions):

A running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or a loss of effectiveness the following year, unless he is named Eric Dickerson.

Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson, and Edgerrin James all blew out their knees. Larry Johnson broke his foot. Earl Campbell and Eddie George went from legendary powerhouses to plodding, replacement-level players. Shaun Alexander broke his foot and became a plodding, replacement-level player. This is what happens when a running back is overworked to the point of having at least 370 carries during the regular season.

The "Curse of 370" was expanded in Pro Football Prospectus 2006 to include seasons with 390 or more carries in the regular season and postseason combined. Research also shows that receptions don't cause a problem, only workload on the ground.

Plenty of running backs get injured without hitting 370 carries in a season, but there is a clear difference. On average, running backs with 300 to 369 carries and no postseason appearance will see their total rushing yardage decline by 15 percent the following year and their yards per carry decline by two percent. The average running back with 370 or more regular-season carries, or 390 including the postseason, will see their rushing yardage decline by 35 percent, and their yards per carry decline by eight percent.
Research in Pro Football Prospectus 2008 suggests that overuse in college does not create a problem for top prospects, but also shows that players chosen after the first round rarely have a successful NFL career after a college season over 330 carries.

I have read that article before. Good stuff.

I disagree with their opinion that receptions don't matter. Every touch matters to some degree. A reception may not as physically punishing as a running attempt through the tackles, but the player is still getting hit. Perhaps it doesn't matter because most of the guys on that list caught at least 25 or more passes in a season with some getting close to 50. They all added at least 1.5 touches per game through the passing game.

Earl Campbell is the only one who was not used much as a receiver, but I saw few other backs take the pounding he did during his career. Tony Dorsett and Emmitt Smith both had a knack for avoiding the big hits even in a crowd. Earl did not have this talent. He seemed to get hit hard on every single carry. I doubt there are many backs that could take the pounding he did in every game and still produce like he did.

Turner's 6 receptions is way less than the other guys that have rushed the ball over 370 times in a year. And it is not as if he got a lot of playoff touches last year, either. Just 18 carries and 1 reception. I am just a little surprised he is fallen under the curse of 370. Other runners have been over used a lot more than him in the past.