I think it depends on the QB, I think there are some who have been more of a sure thing than others. I had no doubts with QB's like Aikman, Peyton, Luck and as well as some others who have and are still showing they are worth giving up picks to get them. Right now if I could have Luck and knew I would have to give up 2 1st rd picks to get him I would. Granted Cowboys would have to feel very strong about that QB before making that move
Ehh...I mean I see what you're saying. I guess what i'm saying is if I had the 1st overall pick i'd take a shot at a Luck. But it seems like when teams over trade for the 1st overall pick which is what happens it always comes back to bite them. Like if you look back at all of the great 1st overall QB's how many of them were traded? Off the top in recent memory I can think of RGIII who was the 2nd overall pick, Eli Manning and Mike Vick. It seems like the Aikman's, Peyton's and Lucks rarely EVER get traded. If I could trade 2 1st rounders for Luck coming out or a prospect of his caliber I would. But it usually takes more than that and plus it would depend on the pick we'd have.
I just don't see the logical move in doing it. The only way you could justify it is if you're simply a quarterback away but no one is essentially a QB away...not a rookie one anyway lol.
But I wouldn't shed much of a tear trading for a prospect like a Luck. I just think it wouldn't help your franchise out much.
OK who taken after early in the second round has developed into a Franchise QB in the last 10 years. Or for that matter go back 20 years.
Guess what? The number can be counted on the fingers of ONE hand.
Kapernick is not a franchize QB. Might still get there but its doubtful. Wilson seems to be. So far. Outside of him show me a guy taken later then early second round who has made it?
So this BS of developing a QB is just that. The odds are about 20-1 against. The only way it might work was if you took a QB late every year and gave each one 3 years to develope- which means holding a couple of roster slots open for them that you could use on another position.
Well I mean let's be for real here. How many top QB's have ended up being busts in the 1st round? How many QB's have been traded by a team on draft day and have gone on to have great success?
If the question becomes would I rather invest in a 2nd round QB over trading atleast 2 1st rounders for a quarterback? I'd chose the former. I've seen enough Jamarcus Russels, Matt Stafford's, Alex Smith's, Tim Couch's, Joey Harrington's, Sam Bradford's and RGIII's to know that there's a BIG probability of your quarterback not panning out and i'm not risking two or 3 starters for that.
I mean goodness....we're not that far removed from Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder and Jake Locker being 1st round picks.
And i'm far more comfortable in having Kapernick as my quarterback than I am 95% of the league. Its not Kap's fault his offense sucks and the OC is even worse. Kap with the Cowboys would be a completely different animal.