People like to say total yards can be skewed based on garbage time. So I like yards per play. Over the course of 60 plays per game it should be fairly accurate and lessen effect of that 1 80 yard play.
So Dallas is tops in the league on offense at 7.3 yards per play and 7th in defense at 5.2 yards per play allowed. That’s a net of 2.1.
Jets are last in the league at 3.2 yards per play and 13th on defense averaging 5.5 yards per play. That’s a net of -2.3.
so what’s that mean? Well one sports odds person says that if you take Difference in net yards per play and divide by 0.2, that’s a good estimate for the spread.
In this case the difference is 4.4 and divided by 0.2 it’s 22. Account for 3 points for the home team and spread should be around 19.
Now that does not take into account turnovers which obviously have been the greatest undoing for the team, but hopefully this gives a ray of hope for those thinking the season is lost. Even the defense hasn’t been as awful as I would have thought.
You'll want to look at Aikman Efficiency Ratings. Aikman is pinpoint accurate with these rankings. Just like when he was passing the football.
The formula doesn't take into account total yards (which is a good thing). It doesn't take into account W-L. That is the end result.
Look through the history of AER rankings to verify the accuracy. They are the most accurate stats ever in my opinion.
Currently, the Cowboys are the 3rd most efficient team in the league. 2nd offense. 10th Defense.
Aikman Foundation: AER thru Week 5:
http://aikman.com/AikmanEfficiencyR...man-Efficiency-Ratings-2019-As-of-Week-5.aspx
Aikman's Formula:
Adjusted Points (20%) -- Total Points Scored or Allowed minus Points on Returns and Safeties
Turnovers (20%)
Red Zone Efficiency (20%) -- Measured by Percent of Possible Points (see below)
Yards Per Play -- divided into Yards Per Rush (10% of total) and Yards Per Pass Play (10% of total). Yards Per Pass Play includes yards on plays involving sacks.
First Down Achievement -- divided into Total First Downs (10% of total) and 3rd Down Conversion Percentage (10% of total)
Percentage of Possible Points in the Red Zone is figured by taking the number of Red Zone Chances times 7, then dividing it by the number of Points Actually Scored (defined as TDs times 7 plus FGs times 3).