Does any coach punt from the opponent's side more than Garrett?

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Let it go broheem..... we just got beat in real life and you are obsessed with old threads

You are being disrespectful and childish over an internet debate......... not a good look

Posters here have added 100x the content you ever had......learn your place if you are just going to make up numbers and ignore the experts

wow, I guess we should have thrown on all the 4th downs and that would help us win the game....

and a child using the word childish...son, grow up.... and stop kissing arses....its not really becoming....instead learn and speak intelligently and you will get more respect around here. I don't need anyone's support...like you do.....

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Jason Garrett was the guy that was backed up in their own territory against the Commanders, with like 80 yards to go, on the last play of the game and he runs a passing play with a check-down option to Choice, of which Romo throws to, Choice then proceeds to fumble and the Commanders score, ultimately that play defining the victory for the Skins.

Jason Garrett probablt has no idea what he's doing a lot of the time...

OK, this is how things get thrown out of context...

that was a game in DC, and it was with minimal time to go before half time and choice was initially to pass protect...romo was supposed to throw a hail mary and he dumped it off to choice... not sure why but he did and choice instead of going out of bounce or going down and end the half, decided to be a Hero and run through entire Commanders defense and he fumbled....there is a reason choice is no longer in the NFL....

so it wasn't a designed play....it was a really poor execution..... who the heck throws a check down, with few second left on the clock!!!!! that's player stupidity.

 

[Nightman]

wow, I guess we should have thrown on all the 4th downs and that would help us win the game....

and a child using the word childish...son, grow up.... and stop kissing arses....its not really becoming....instead learn and speak intelligently and you will get more respect around here. I don't need anyone's support...like you do.....

Add something constructive or troll away

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

I'm not using your chart except for another piece of data backing my argument

The data has been provided throughout this thread and in numerous studies that are too lengthy to re-post..... you have to do your own research....... but the numbers provided by the experts say it is clearly beneficial to go for it a lot more, especially in their territory

Like I said ...... you only have to succeed one in 5 times to make it worth while.............. a first down at their 35 is worth more than a FG to start with...... almost guaranteed points..... if you give the other team the ball at their 40 they still have to get 2-3 1st downs to get into FG range

wow, you have no idea about statistics do you?

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Huh? If I have the ball on 1st down at the opponent's 40 yard line, it doesn't matter if that's the first play of the drive or the 10th. All those other plays are behind me. You can treat it, from that point forward, as the first play of a drive. Besides which, I've checked the sources for those data, and they are not in fact "beginning of drive." They are "first down field position." (Not that it matters).

If I convert on a 4th down at the opponent's 40 yard line, I have a >50% chance of scoring from that point (all other things being equal, of course).

The plot comes from here: http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2009/01/drive-results.html

And here's the money quote:

"Each graph is based on first down field position. For example, for all 1st downs at a team’s own 35 yard line, offenses go on to score touchdowns 20% of the time. It doesn’t matter how the team got to the 35 yard line with a first down. They could have started the drive there or converted a first down from their own 20."

and if you don't convert which has about a 50% chance...the opponent scores..... you are only looking at half the equation.....

 

[khiladi]

OK, this is how things get thrown out of context...

that was a game in DC, and it was with minimal time to go before half time and choice was initially to pass protect...romo was supposed to throw a hail mary and he dumped it off to choice... not sure why but he did and choice instead of going out of bounce or going down and end the half, decided to be a Hero and run through entire Commanders defense and he fumbled....there is a reason choice is no longer in the NFL....

so it wasn't a designed play....it was a really poor execution..... who the heck throws a check down, with few second left on the clock!!!!! that's player stupidity.

Throw a hail mary, right before the half, 80 yards away when you had a whole half to play instead of just downing it.. Choice was the check-down per the design of the pla... Who the heck throws a hailr mary that can't even reach that far downfield by the best arms in football?

Thrown out of context, by whom?

 

[Nightman]

wow, you have no idea about statistics do you?

was only a business management major at Georgetown but yeah you're right

you are from DC..... I'm sure you have heard of Georgetown....maybe you even went to some of the bars on M St

 

[Nightman]

and if you don't convert which has about a 50% chance...the opponent scores..... you are only looking at half the equation.....

more of the 50% quote out of your butt...... and no the opponent doesn't score for 30-60 more yards....or just like every other drive

first rule...........if you find yourself in a hole- STOP DIGGING

 

[JD_KaPow]

IDK about that

They needed 18 points and at 4thand 3 the expected points were 2.99
If they got a 1st it would go to 5.50 ....... they difference between 3 and 5.5 points wasn't worth getting 0

Being close to a TD is mitigated by the clock

Exactly. The clock is the key parameter here (not the differential in points). You have to consider not just the current drive, but what will happen after. There are four minutes left. Maybe you get the ball back twice, maybe not. If not, you lose, so don't even worry about that scenario. If you do, you're very likely to have very little time (and perhaps no time outs) on that last drive. The odds of scoring a TD under those conditions are miniscule. But the odds of scoring a FG aren't: get yourself to the opponent's 35 and run out the FG unit.

For this reason, there's a big difference between (4 minutes left, down 14) and (4 minutes left, down 10).

Well, I tried to check this out with win probabilities (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/win_prob.cgi) but it wasn't very helpful:

Chance of winning, 4 minutes left, down 17, opponent starts at their 7 (you went for it and failed): 1.47%
Chance of winning, 4 minutes left, down 14, opponent starts at their 25 (you kicked deep): 0.91%
Chance of winning, 4 minutes left, down 10, opponent starts at their 25 (you kicked deep): 1.05%

I could say that makes my point for me (kicking the FG is your worst option), but this is probably driven by lack of data more than anything. What it really says is that you need to score and do a successful onside or you're pretty well screwed. Let's try this:

Chance of winning, 4 minutes left, down 14, you recover the onside kick at your 45: 6.03%
Chance of winning, 4 minutes left, down 10, you recover the onside kick at your 45: 12.32%

You can crunch the math on all this, but to me it says "go for it." And it's certainly not an obviously wrong decision.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Throw a hail mary, right before the half, 80 yards away when you had a whole half to play instead of just downing it.. Choice was the check-down per the design of the pla... Who the heck throws a hailr mary that can't even reach that far downfield by the best arms in football?

Thrown out of context, by whom?

it wasn't 80 yards, the ball was on our 46 initially, then 36. so its about 60 yards. it was 4 seconds left on the clock....... that's how things get thrown out of context....and you want to tell me no one has ever thrown a hail mary in that type of situation? come on.....

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

was only a business management major at Georgetown but yeah you're right

you are from DC..... I'm sure you have heard of Georgetown....maybe you even went to some of the bars on M St

business management....how did you ever get past statistics!!! I am very surprised..... you lack a lot kiddo........ I have a PhD in engineering and an MBA and I am in semi-retirement (my wife kicks me out of the house).....I probably know a little more than you...just maybe ... and I don't drink nor frequent any bar establishments...sounds like you did though which explains a lot about your educational background...

 

[Nightman]

Exactly. The clock is the key parameter here (not the differential in points). You have to consider not just the current drive, but what will happen after. There are four minutes left. Maybe you get the ball back twice, maybe not. If not, you lose, so don't even worry about that scenario. If you do, you're very likely to have very little time (and perhaps no time outs) on that last drive. The odds of scoring a TD under those conditions are miniscule. But the odds of scoring a FG aren't: get yourself to the opponent's 35 and run out the FG unit.

For this reason, there's a big difference between (4 minutes left, down 14) and (4 minutes left, down 10).

Well, I tried to check this out with win probabilities (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/win_prob.cgi) but it wasn't very helpful:

Chance of winning, 4 minutes left, down 17, opponent starts at their 7 (you went for it and failed): 1.47%
Chance of winning, 4 minutes left, down 14, opponent starts at their 25 (you kicked deep): 0.91%
Chance of winning, 4 minutes left, down 10, opponent starts at their 25 (you kicked deep): 1.05%

I could say that makes my point for me (kicking the FG is your worst option), but this is probably driven by lack of data more than anything. What it really says is that you need to score and do a successful onside or you're pretty well screwed. Let's try this:

Chance of winning, 4 minutes left, down 14, you recover the onside kick at your 45: 6.03%
Chance of winning, 4 minutes left, down 10, you recover the onside kick at your 45: 12.32%

You can crunch the math on all this, but to me it says "go for it." And it's certainly not an obviously wrong decision.

If they were at the One then maybe go for it....... it would leave them vulnerable to a safety and free kick....... but not from the 6

an onside kick recovery and 55+ yd FG or Hail Mary are both longshots but I would sign up for either over what happened

 

[Nightman]

business management....how did you ever get past statistics!!! I am very surprised..... you lack a lot kiddo........ I have a PhD in engineering and an MBA and I am in semi-retirement (my wife kicks me out of the house).....I probably know a little more than you...just maybe ... and I don't drink nor frequent any bar establishments...sounds like you did though which explains a lot about your educational background...

Which is you why spout nonsense NOT backed up by any data........ you just go with your gut and your magical 50% number...... you have no credibility and quit calling me son...I am 47 years old and have played and watched more football than you ever will

You haven't backed up one claim you have ever made and was made to look stupid again on the 35 yard line Hail Mary nonsense...... #urneverright

 

[JD_KaPow]

and if you don't convert which has about a 50% chance...the opponent scores..... you are only looking at half the equation.....

Uh, no. The opponent doesn't automatically score when they start at their own 40. And they don't automatically fail to score when you punt to them, either.

It's all laid out here.
https://cowboyszone.com/threads/doe...more-than-garrett.385187/page-12#post-7522910

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Uh, no. The opponent doesn't automatically score when they start at their own 40. And they don't automatically fail to score when you punt to them, either.

It's all laid out here.
https://cowboyszone.com/threads/doe...more-than-garrett.385187/page-12#post-7522910

this is definition of fuzzy math.....

so you score when you convert, but giving the ball to the other team at their 40, doesn't translate to them scoring, how convenient!!!.... and as your statistics, which are biased to begin with show, the other team has 40-45% chance of scoring.... so you are arguing because in your opinion, there is a 10% extra chance for your to score compared to the other team.

given the stats are based on 4th down numbers from teams that have gone for it and the NORMAL approach for most coaches is they don't go for it, the data is quite biased for the situation at that point in the game. the results would be quite different if defenses had to defend 4 downs all the time. the approach to the game would be different. how much time was on the clock? what was the score? what made the coaches go for it on 4th down? as I had mentioned, they were desperate. thus these stats are quite biased and miss out the specific game situation data that led coaches to decision to go for it.

and where did you come up with the stat that if it fails the other team will score about 40-45% of the time....so they get the ball at their 40, so you mean half the time...do they not get one first down? and when they do get first down, they are on our side of the field. between 40- and 50 as you so conveniently are using to make your case....then does the other team go for it? they have a 50%+ chance of scoring if they go for it on 4th down? or is it that only our coaches go for it? lets make this more convenient for your case...

let me ask you, how often would you like to get the ball at your own 40, vs, 20. and what are your chances of scoring points, from your 40, vs. your own 20.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Which is you why spout nonsense NOT backed up by any data........ you just go with your gut and your magical 50% number...... you have no credibility and quit calling me son...I am 47 years old and have played and watched more football than you ever will

You haven't backed up one claim you have ever made and was made to look stupid again on the 35 yard line Hail Mary nonsense...... #urneverright

if you were truly knowledgeable about statistics, sources of the numbers, etc. you would look at your own numbers and it all jumps out at you. but you refuse to look at the whole picture, looking only on one side.... just looking at one side of the equation.........I used YOUR OWN STATS to show you that it fails to reach your conclusion, given even if its slightly less than 50% of the time you fail to convert, that the other team will score more than 50% of the time....using YOUR OWN STATS. so if you score slightly more than 50% of the time (if its 4th and 3 and less, numbers are worse for more yards to go) and fail slightly less than 50% of the time, giving the ball to the other team, they will score on you....so the difference you are looking at is less than 10% chance to score more than the other opponent and 90% of the time it washes out, because both sides score....its simple... you have only looked at YOUR SUCCESS rate, and discounted YOUR FAILURE rate....a good business manager would take into account all costs!!!! didn't they teach you that in Georgetown? or perhaps you spent too much time in the local bars and missed that class!

 

[Zman5]

Jason Garrett was the guy that was backed up in their own territory against the Commanders, with like 80 yards to go, on the last play of the game and he runs a passing play with a check-down option to Choice, of which Romo throws to, Choice then proceeds to fumble and the Commanders score, ultimately that play defining the victory for the Skins.

Jason Garrett probablt has no idea what he's doing a lot of the time...

I think that was the last play of the half and all we had to do was kneel and go in for the half time. If I remember correctly, it was a close game and there was no reason to call a play let alone a dangerous pass play that allowed Deadskins to get a TD before the half.

 

[JD_KaPow]

this is definition of fuzzy math.....

so you score when you convert, but giving the ball to the other team at their 40, doesn't translate to them scoring, how convenient!!!.... and as your statistics, which are biased to begin with show, the other team has 40-45% chance of scoring.... so you are arguing because in your opinion, there is a 10% extra chance for your to score compared to the other team.

given the stats are based on 4th down numbers from teams that have gone for it and the NORMAL approach for most coaches is they don't go for it, the data is quite biased for the situation at that point in the game. the results would be quite different if defenses had to defend 4 downs all the time. the approach to the game would be different. how much time was on the clock? what was the score? what made the coaches go for it on 4th down? as I had mentioned, they were desperate. thus these stats are quite biased and miss out the specific game situation data that led coaches to decision to go for it.

and where did you come up with the stat that if it fails the other team will score about 40-45% of the time....so they get the ball at their 40, so you mean half the time...do they not get one first down? and when they do get first down, they are on our side of the field. between 40- and 50 as you so conveniently are using to make your case....then does the other team go for it? they have a 50%+ chance of scoring if they go for it on 4th down? or is it that only our coaches go for it? lets make this more convenient for your case...

let me ask you, how often would you like to get the ball at your own 40, vs, 20. and what are your chances of scoring points, from your 40, vs. your own 20.

Once again, you've clearly failed to read anything I and others have written. Your last question is answered directly by the post I referenced and the data that has been shared a million times on this thread. Your first and third sentences contradict each other, and your second paragraph ignores what I explained about the data sources long ago. I said I was done with having this discussion with you earlier, and I should have stuck to that. This time I will.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Once again, you've clearly failed to read anything I and others have written. Your last question is answered directly by the post I referenced and the data that has been shared a million times on this thread. Your first and third sentences contradict each other, and your second paragraph ignores what I explained about the data sources long ago. I said I was done with having this discussion with you earlier, and I should have stuck to that. This time I will.

I have read all the data. what you have failed to explain is that you account for more scoring for you SUCCEEDING in 4th down conversions, but haven't accounted for FAILING in 4th down conversions and the other team scoring as a result. and again, the stats are biased, given that based on everyone who is supportive of going for it, assuming the NFL coaches don't NORMALLY go for 4th downs, thus the results are biased because they happen under UNUSUAL circumstances.

assuming those stats are valid, which are missing contextual information and are blended and used by you to support your assumptions. its simple question for you to answer, which you have circularly avoided to answer. If going for it on 4th down, results in 50%+ (slightly) chance of you scoring more...what about the slightly 50%-(slightly less) chance of failing? what happens to you giving up scores as a result? you have continuously argued one side of the equation. or are you assuming you go for it, you score, but the other team doesn't score? which is what you mentioned before, that failure doesn't automatically translate to other team scoring, which is a false assumption.

 

[khiladi]

I think that was the last play of the half and all we had to do was kneel and go in for the half time. If I remember correctly, it was a close game and there was no reason to call a play let alone a dangerous pass play that allowed Deadskins to get a TD before the half.

You are correct. I accidentally wrote end of game instead of half..