Don't Get Cute with the Trade Down

[Teague31]

Don't like all this trade down talk. why pass up a superior player for an inferior one? Carimi and Castonzo may be solid pros but Tyron Smith has all pro potential. Reminds me a lot of the Steven Jackson- Julius Jones debacle.

 

[tm1119]

Don't like all this trade down talk. why pass up a superior player for an inferior one? Carimi and Castonzo may be solid pros but Tyron Smith has all pro potential. Reminds me a lot of the Steven Jackson- Julius Jones debacle.

...and Tyron Smith has just as much if not more bust potential than the other 2. Or Doug Free could continue to improve and we never need Smith at LT. #9 is a hefty price to pay for a RT, 15 + an extra 2nd rounder who could be an instant contributor to our OL, DL or secondary sounds much better though. Im not completely against drafting Smith if several other options are off the board, but I dont see how someone could ignore the possible reward in trading back. People here are a little too positive on Smith's future pro bowl status.

 

[Teague31]

...and Tyron Smith has just as much if not more bust potential than the other 2. Or Doug Free could continue to improve and we never need Smith at LT. #9 is a hefty price to pay for a RT, 15 + an extra 2nd rounder who could be an instant contributor to our OL, DL or secondary sounds much better though. Im not completely against drafting Smith if several other options are off the board, but I dont see how someone could ignore the possible reward in trading back. People here are a little too positive on Smith's future pro bowl status.

I am constantly amazed by this whole "you don't invest heavily for a RT" mentality. This is a passing league. If you can't keep your QB upright, you can't win. A RT is darn near as important as a LT in this day and age.

 

[Hostile]

Don't like all this trade down talk. why pass up a superior player for an inferior one? Carimi and Castonzo may be solid pros but Tyron Smith has all pro potential. Reminds me a lot of the Steven Jackson- Julius Jones debacle.

I agree and for that exact example.

 

[67CowboysFan]

I am constantly amazed by this whole "you don't invest heavily for a RT" mentality. This is a passing league. If you can't keep your QB upright, you can't win. A RT is darn near as important as a LT in this day and age.

I wouldn't have a problem using a first round pick on almost all of the positions. If you need a RT and there is a very good Tackle when your pick comes around why not? Because other teams don't? That argument is not only weak, it is a joke.

 

[tm1119]

I just believe that its a lot easier to hide a less talented o-lineman at RT than any other position. The **** hit the fan last year in terms of our entire offensive line play and Colombo got exposed, but Colombo was a pretty productive RT for a few years. No one was really complaining about him too much before this year. If we get the rest of the line in tact we can get away with not needing as good of a RT in my opinion.

Now, obviously its only a good thing to have a good RT. Im not that stupid to believe that having a good RT isnt a good thing. I just think we have bigger needs on our defense and that RT is easier to fill than other positions. Thats why if 1 of the top 6 athletes on D is available at 9 I would take that player. If theyre all gone though I wouldnt really have a problem with Smith. I was just pointing out that a trade down does indeed have its benefits.

 

[supercowboy8]

Don't like all this trade down talk. why pass up a superior player for an inferior one? Carimi and Castonzo may be solid pros but Tyron Smith has all pro potential. Reminds me a lot of the Steven Jackson- Julius Jones debacle.

I'm not talking about trading out of the 1st. I'm saying trade back just a few spots, pick up a extra 3rd, and still get Smith.

 

[unionjack8]

I'm not talking about trading out of the 1st. I'm saying trade back just a few spots, pick up a extra 3rd, and still get Smith.

i'm not sure that if we trade back past 11 he'll be there. The Vikes and Detroit really need OT help.

 

[supercowboy8]

i'm not sure that if we trade back past 11 he'll be there. The Vikes and Detroit really need OT help.

What if the trade is with Detriot or Minn.

Minn needs more than a LT, they have a starter at LT.

Minn is high on Locker and so is Washington. Minn might want to trade up to get locker.

Detriot is high on Prince and Bowers. If they call and wants to get up to 9 to get either Prince or Bowers.

Don't make the trade if the Lions or Minn say they want Tyron Smith.Teams tell the other teams who they want to trade up for.

 

[ABQcowboyJR]

NE piles up picks and trades back. Worked out pretty well for them.

 

[unionjack8]

What if the trade is with Detriot or Minn.

Minn needs more than a LT, they have a starter at LT.

Minn is high on Locker and so is Washington. Minn might want to trade up to get locker.

Detriot is high on Prince and Bowers. If they call and wants to get up to 9 to get either Prince or Bowers.

Don't make the trade if the Lions or Minn say they want Tyron Smith.Teams tell the other teams who they want to trade up for.

makes sense, they both have multiple needs, just like us i guess but still possible someone else jumps up in front of us. Depends how our board looks i guess, thats why we pay these scouts, time fo them to earn some $$$$$

 

[Teague31]

JJT just stole my thunder.

 

[casmith07]

Agree wholeheartedly, man. I'm all about taking who you want when you want.

 

[Hostile]

NE piles up picks and trades back. Worked out pretty well for them.

Um, give me an example. I think they are getting too cute and blowing it.

 

[ABQcowboyJR]

Um, give me an example. I think they are getting too cute and blowing it.

I was just commenting on their draft style. They are not against trading back and piling picks. They do this atleast once most years. They have a successful franchise that consistently makes post season. That is all that i was alluding to.

 

[Fla Cowpoke]

I was just commenting on their draft style. They are not against trading back and piling picks. They do this atleast once most years. They have a successful franchise that consistently makes post season. That is all that i was alluding to.

NE trades second rounders this year for first rounders next year. Different than just trading down and accumulating picks. Plus they also trade players for draft picks.....instead of overpaying them. Think Deion Branch.

 

[diehard2294]

Don't like all this trade down talk. why pass up a superior player for an inferior one? Carimi and Castonzo may be solid pros but Tyron Smith has all pro potential. Reminds me a lot of the Steven Jackson- Julius Jones debacle.

I agree if Peterson is gone then just sit tight and take T.Smith

 

[laythewood28]

NE piles up picks and trades back. Worked out pretty well for them.

The Patriots can afford to, they put out a superbowl caliber team every year. Dallas not so much.

 

[Shinywalrus]

Using the Julius Jones / Steven Jackson thing is an example, but it's far too small a sample. It's a single, anecdotal event.

You can't just look at the results of trade-downs. You have to look at the various success rates of people drafted at various places, because each of those represents a hypothetical trade-down. You also have to consider that drafts may "slope" differently - that the differential between very high picks in a round and very low picks in the round may be larger or smaller from year to year.

Passing on Tyron Smith to grab Gabe Carimi and (let's say) Will Rackley has nothing to do with Steven Jackson and Julius Jones. Nothing. It has to do with Tyron Smith, Gabe Carimi and Will Rackley and each of their chances of success.

It may not be worth it, and it may be - since it seems to be a fairly benign slope to the quality of players this year (the top 10 or top 5 not being as dramatically different from prior years as we've seen), trading down has a certain additional value to it this year. That, of course, gets arbitraged away by other teams who are more willing to take less consideration to move down than they would have historically.

Still, I hope to God our scouting department and GM staff aren't sitting around saying, "Man, we can't do this, we sure got burned on that Julius Jones thing!"

 

[Shinywalrus]

The Patriots can afford to, they put out a superbowl caliber team every year. Dallas not so much.

Isn't that sort of circular? They can afford to do the things that make them good...because they're good?

At some point, don't you have to assign a LITTLE bit of credit to the success to the fact that they ARE more shrewd in assessing the real value of 2-3rd round picks?