Draft 2012: The Overrated

[jnday]

Great list . I think the Brockers evaluation is spot on .

 

[burmafrd]

Great list . I think the Brockers evaluation is spot on .

yeah, physically he is very interesting and would not surprise me to measure very well at the Combine; but if he could not get it done on LSU's D where other players got a lot of attention then I do not see him doing it in the Pros.

 

[jnday]

yeah, physically he is very interesting and would not surprise me to measure very well at the Combine; but if he could not get it done on LSU's D where other players got a lot of attention then I do not see him doing it in the Pros.

I think any team that drafts him in the first couple of rounds are taking a big gamble . I watched 8or 9 LSU games this year and he is not a player that stands out .

 

[realtick]

I think any team that drafts him in the first couple of rounds are taking a big gamble . I watched 8or 9 LSU games this year and he is not a player that stands out .

I wish Sam Montgomery came out this year.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Blackmon is definitely going to be interesting. I expect the combine to hurt his stock a lot, at least among the interweb gurus, because he's not going to measure or time that well. Some will even be shocked at how average he is.

But he does remind me of TO in one way: He plays extremely pissed off, the way a younger TO used to. Of course he's nowhere near the physical specimen TO was, so he won't be that good. But the anger and aggression and competitiveness he plays with makes him play better than you'd think just based off his size and speed.

 

[jnday]

I wish Sam Montgomery came out this year.

You can tell that he is a ball player .

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I don't think this is a great draft for defensive players period in the first round.

DL
CB
LB

It appears there's a lot of depth in the lower rounds but in round one, it's loaded with defensive players who seem to have big holes in their games.

 

[jnday]

I don't think this is a great draft for defensive players period in the first round.

DL
CB
LB

It appears there's a lot of depth in the lower rounds but in round one, it's loaded with defensive players who seem to have big holes in their games.

There is a lot of truth in this post but many posters can't see it .

 

[MichaelWinicki]

There is a lot of truth in this post but many posters can't see it .

There's a lot of nice offensive players in round 1.

 

[jobberone]

I don't think he's a scrub by any means, but like you said I definitely don't think he's a Top 10 draft pick. He has a good chance of going in the Top 60 or 70 (1-2 rounds), but this combine is going to be huge for him. I think he's gotta be somewhere in the 4.5 (low 4.6 max) range to solidify his status.

The player that comes to mind everytime I watch him is former Oklahoma St. star, Adarius Bowman. They are both very similiar in size and style of play. All of the critiques you gave him are on par with what I see as well. There's some holes to his game but there are elements that he has that can be used right away in the NFL game that will help someone immediately...height/size, ball skills, jumping ability.

http://wikicollegefootball.org/images/3/31/Bowman_injury.jpg

Never considered Adarius. My guess is someone will take a chance on Jeffrey and he'll go in the first somewhere.

 

[Balotelli]

Kuechly is probably as athletic as Brooking, lol, but his insticts are out of this world. Always at the right place at the rigt time. Sick numbers.

 

[Biggems]

i saw enough of burfict in the 3 or 4 games I watched to know he disgusts me as a player. so much hype and so overrated.

conversely, osweiler really impressed me. he makes mistakes, but he plays with moxy, keeps a cool head, isn't afraid to throw his body into the fire, and has a pretty strong arm for such a tall, lanky kid.

 

[JoeCorrado]

Yeah, I really don't understand why Brockers is so highly rated, either

Think 3-4 DE - the guy has the speed and quickness to out finesse any RT in the league, and he has the power to out muscle them as well while getting to the QB. One of his best assets in getting off of a block to make the tackle, and with his long arms, he takes up lots of space to stuff the run.

If you want pressure from a DE, he is a solid choice- and he is still growing physically as well as game knowledge, experience and technique.

He is rated as high as he is because he can instantly fill any spot on the line, regardless of 3-4 or 4-3 and THAT is a rarity. Add his huge upside, and his positional and overall ratings are more common sense than any great leaps.

These guys who create these articles are sometimes less well informed, and less knowledgeable than a layman. Brockers faced double teams as a matter of routine. Don't know what planet this guy has been on?

Brockers will be off the board before pick 20, you can bank on that- and if he lasts to the end of round one, Bill and the Patriots will be dancing and high fiving like they had just won the Super Bowl... and they will certainly not be wrong for believing it.

 

[jterrell]

Interesting list.

Was curious about Josh Norman so looked him up and he was an intern for the Rams in 2010 and 2011. But he has zero historical data to say he can or can not evaluate talent. Cool exercise though.

Anyways let's critique his list.

1. Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon (6-1/215/4.54)
This one is almost a de facto overrated guy. Truth is there was not a dominant WR this year. Blackmon was very, very good but he wasn't Larry Fitzgerald type good. All that said he looks to easily be the best WR prospect. He isn't a great natural athlete but like Fitzgerald he has excellent hands and uses his size very well. He breaks tackles a lot like his former collegiate WR Bryant.

2. LSU DT Michael Brockers (6-5/306/4.95) -
Brockers IMHO is this years Tyron Smith. He is very young and raw but has outstanding upside. His actual performance wasn't as sexy as some other guys but he has 2 years of collegiate play under his belt, not 2 or 3 in a JUCO then 2 in a mjaor college like a lot of SEC guys will. His selection is based upon potential to be sure but of the guy who could be All Pro in 5 years his name is on the short list. Like Smith may play a more conservative position like an NFL 3-4 DE his first season but evolve into a stud over time.

3. Arizona State ILB Vontaze Burfict (6-2/250/4.67) -
Another de facto choice. Never ever got close to producing like the top recruit he was projected to be. I haven't seem him play much as the Sun Devils are hardly must see TV but his stats are definitely meager.

4. South Carolina WR Alshon Jeffery (6-3/229/4.63) -
Jeffery has over 1500 yards receiving in the SEC in 2010. That is saying something. It looks like teams found a way to cover him with press coverage as his stats fell apart but Norman has be wondering what he watched. Jeffery had only 4 catches but had 148 yards and a 78 yard TD against Nebraska in a game his team won 30-13. NFL teams would take bad performances like those every week....
Jeffery is a legit round 2 prospect.

5. Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler (6-7/240/4.83) -
QB critiques are a dime a dozen. Osweiler didn't win enough for me. That's all I got here.

6. Illinois DE/OLB Whitney Mercilus (6-3/265/4.68) -
When a guy gets 16 sacks in a major conference I'd say it is nearly impossible to equal production with talent. Not sure I follow the beef here. Whitney is a non-stop motor guy and those guys tend to excel. He has NFL size and speed if the projected numbers are true. Do not see him projected in the top 10 or 15 by folks so no sure on this one.

7. Ohio State OT Mike Adams (6-7/323/5.28) -
I agree with this one. I do think Adams is a RT only and that means he would be over-drafted if projected to r1. BUT I think he probably goes between bottom 4 picks of r1 to middle of r2 and that is about right.

8. Syracuse DE Chandler Jones (6-5/265/4.78) -
I am never putting down one of on Jones family members as overrated.


9. Michigan State DT Jerel Worthy (6-2/310/5.04) -
Reminds me of Shaun Rogers. That's both good and bad. My questions again is how is he being over-rated? Do people have him far higher than what I see?

10. Oregon RB LaMichael James (5-9/195/4.42) -
I disagree here strongly. James is tough, fast, quick and has good vision. In today's NFL you need that type of explosive back. He isn't being treated to Trent Richardson so shouldn't be over-drafted. Now if he runs a 4.3 at the combine (which I expect) it will be interesting to see what happens to his status.

 

[jnday]

Think 3-4 DE - the guy has the speed and quickness to out finesse any RT in the league, and he has the power to out muscle them as well while getting to the QB. One of his best assets in getting off of a block to make the tackle, and with his long arms, he takes up lots of space to stuff the run.

If you want pressure from a DE, he is a solid choice- and he is still growing physically as well as game knowledge, experience and technique.

He is rated as high as he is because he can instantly fill any spot on the line, regardless of 3-4 or 4-3 and THAT is a rarity. Add his huge upside, and his positional and overall ratings are more common sense than any great leaps.

These guys who create these articles are sometimes less well informed, and less knowledgeable than a layman. Brockers faced double teams as a matter of routine. Don't know what planet this guy has been on?

Brockers will be off the board before pick 20, you can bank on that- and if he lasts to the end of round one, Bill and the Patriots will be dancing and high fiving like they had just won the Super Bowl... and they will certainly not be wrong for believing it.

I think the team that drafts Brockers will be taking a gamble that he will reach his potential instead of drafting him on his current production . I watched many of the LSU games this year and he is not a player that can take over the LOS . He has the tools , if he has the dedication .

 

[revospeed]

Kuechly is probably as athletic as Brooking, lol, but his insticts are out of this world. Always at the right place at the rigt time. Sick numbers.

Way to stereotype.

 

[revospeed]

Every year leading up to the draft, certain prospects seem ticketed for specific teams or to be taken highly due to groupthink, publicity, and name recognition. These predictions may or may not pan out. Usually, they don’t, and that’s what makes the NFL draft so enticing: suspense and unpredictability.

Detailed below are ten players I feel are currently being overrated, overhyped, or overvalued by media members. I’ve done extensive film study on each, and my opinions are not based on statistics, college awards, or conventional wisdom. Presently, I believe these players are receiving too much positive attention in media evaluations and mock drafts.

All 40 times and heights/weights for non-senior prospects are projected.

Overrated:

1. Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon (6-1/215/4.54) - Blackmon has a fair argument to be the first receiver drafted, but the door is more wide open than it appears. He simply isn’t a vertical threat, securing a vast majority of his receptions within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Blackmon made a living dominating smaller, slower, less physical Big 12 cornerbacks thanks to consistent five- and seven-yard cushions at the snap, allowing quick completions and easy conversions on curl routes. Blackmon's catch radius and ability to adjust his body positioning are major pluses, but he is not an elite prospect in the vein of A.J. Green or Julio Jones. Downfield playmaking ability is a necessity for any receiver worth a top-ten pick. I am not overlooking Blackmon's capacity to use the sideline, or his strength at the catch point, but he is a limited receiver from a skill standpoint and hardly a surefire top-five pick.

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/39879/60/draft-2012-the-overrated

The whole schtick about the Big 12 not having anybody that can play defense is a load of crap. Blackmon worked over several good corners the past two years. Prince Amukamara (1st round pick and Consensus All American) Alfonzo Dennard (Potential 1st or 2nd round pick) Aaron Williams (2nd round pick) Jamell Flemming (Potential 3rd round pick) ect... The fact of the matter remains that Blackmon has proven over the past two seasons that he is the type of receiver that can take over a game singlehandedly. There isn't a receiver in the draft class that comes close to him.

 

[jobberone]

Interesting list.

Was curious about Josh Norman so looked him up and he was an intern for the Rams in 2010 and 2011. But he has zero historical data to say he can or can not evaluate talent. Cool exercise though.



4. South Carolina WR Alshon Jeffery (6-3/229/4.63) -
Jeffery has over 1500 yards receiving in the SEC in 2010. That is saying something. It looks like teams found a way to cover him with press coverage as his stats fell apart but Norman has be wondering what he watched. Jeffery had only 4 catches but had 148 yards and a 78 yard TD against Nebraska in a game his team won 30-13. NFL teams would take bad performances like those every week....
Jeffery is a legit round 2 prospect.

Not to mention he got kicked out of the game along with the Neb CB in the second qtr. He was also playing on a bad wheel.

The drop off in his production is easy to understand. Carolina's boneheaded QB was staying out all hours then trying to play hung over. Until he got kicked off the team. Then the replacement QB took sometime getting used to the SEC. He still wasn't as good as Stephen Garcia was the previous year although close by the end of the year. Jeffrey definitely missed Stephen the 'Junior' player.

I think he'll go in the first although not sure I'd take him there. I'd take him for sure in the second. With some NFL coaching and extra strength I think he'll be a pretty good player for a long time. But we all know WRs are risky.

 

[burmafrd]

Think 3-4 DE - the guy has the speed and quickness to out finesse any RT in the league, and he has the power to out muscle them as well while getting to the QB. One of his best assets in getting off of a block to make the tackle, and with his long arms, he takes up lots of space to stuff the run.

If you want pressure from a DE, he is a solid choice- and he is still growing physically as well as game knowledge, experience and technique.

He is rated as high as he is because he can instantly fill any spot on the line, regardless of 3-4 or 4-3 and THAT is a rarity. Add his huge upside, and his positional and overall ratings are more common sense than any great leaps.

These guys who create these articles are sometimes less well informed, and less knowledgeable than a layman. Brockers faced double teams as a matter of routine. Don't know what planet this guy has been on?

Brockers will be off the board before pick 20, you can bank on that- and if he lasts to the end of round one, Bill and the Patriots will be dancing and high fiving like they had just won the Super Bowl... and they will certainly not be wrong for believing it.

watched him in several games and saw nothing that would make me pick him in the first.