ejthedj
Well-Known Member
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Hey Everyone,
I have done this analysis the last few years, and it works pretty well plus it gives you a sense of who we might get. Also, it gives us something to root for during the draft--if people lower down the list go before us, we have more options!
So, here's how it works: I accumulated data from 18 mock drafts (not fans, most from published sources). I did this to get an idea of who will definitely be gone before our pick, who we should cheer for if they go before us, and who our realistic options are. I simply tallied if players went before pick 22 in the mocks. The list gives us an idea that there are about 17 players who will almost certainly be gone before us. That means we need to root for 4 players from the rest of the list to climb up ahead of us. I did the same 18 drafts, but two times--once on April 3rd and now today, April 20th. So it also marks some changes in perceived draft value of players.
Here's the list: 2008—18 mock drafts (4-3)
Certain to be gone: 10
Ryan
Ellis
Long
Long
Dorsey
Gholston
McFadden
McKelvin
Mendenhall
Clady
Almost Certain (95%): 3
Rivers (16)
C. Williams (16)
Harvey (17)
Nearly Certain (80%): 4
Jenkins (15)
Otah (15)
DRC (14)
Kelly (13)—even if it’s not Kelly, we can count on one WR gone before us
Better than Average Chance (60%): 3
D. Jackson (11)
Merling (11)
Stewart (10)
Others Mentioned (50% or less): 16
D. Thomas (8)
Phillips (8)
Talib (7)
Brohm (7)
Sweed (6)
K. Balmer (5)
Connor (3)
Groves (3)
Cason (2)
B. Albert (2)
F. Jones
R. Smith
J. Hardy
C. Campbell (2)
J. Mayo
B. Flowers
Update on April 20, 2007--same 18 mocks
Certain to be gone: 11
Ryan
Ellis
Long
Long
Dorsey
Gholston
McFadden
McKelvin
Clady
C. Williams
Rivers
Almost Certain (95%): 4
Harvey (16)
Mendenhall (16)
DRC (17)
Albert (16)
Nearly Certain (80%): 2
D. Thomas (15)
Otah (15)
Better than Average Chance (60%): 2
Jenkins (13)
Merling (13)
Others Mentioned (50% or less): 13
Sweed (9)
Stewart (9)
Jackson (8)
Mayo (7)
C. Campbell (6)
Talib (4)
Phillips (4)
Brohm (2)
Groves (2)
J. Hardy (2)
Kelly (2)
Balmer
Cason
Basically, we can't hope to get anybody in the first two columns. There is little chance of the people in the third (nearly certain) either. So, look at the bottom two lists of players, pick your favorites, and start cheering. We want to hope that people like Brohm or Campbell or Merling go before us because I can't see us taking them no matter what. If those three would go before us, we'd have our pick of the rest.
This guide gives you a good idea of what we can expect and what we can hope for, all through Cowboy-tinted glasses.
I have done this analysis the last few years, and it works pretty well plus it gives you a sense of who we might get. Also, it gives us something to root for during the draft--if people lower down the list go before us, we have more options!
So, here's how it works: I accumulated data from 18 mock drafts (not fans, most from published sources). I did this to get an idea of who will definitely be gone before our pick, who we should cheer for if they go before us, and who our realistic options are. I simply tallied if players went before pick 22 in the mocks. The list gives us an idea that there are about 17 players who will almost certainly be gone before us. That means we need to root for 4 players from the rest of the list to climb up ahead of us. I did the same 18 drafts, but two times--once on April 3rd and now today, April 20th. So it also marks some changes in perceived draft value of players.
Here's the list: 2008—18 mock drafts (4-3)
Certain to be gone: 10
Ryan
Ellis
Long
Long
Dorsey
Gholston
McFadden
McKelvin
Mendenhall
Clady
Almost Certain (95%): 3
Rivers (16)
C. Williams (16)
Harvey (17)
Nearly Certain (80%): 4
Jenkins (15)
Otah (15)
DRC (14)
Kelly (13)—even if it’s not Kelly, we can count on one WR gone before us
Better than Average Chance (60%): 3
D. Jackson (11)
Merling (11)
Stewart (10)
Others Mentioned (50% or less): 16
D. Thomas (8)
Phillips (8)
Talib (7)
Brohm (7)
Sweed (6)
K. Balmer (5)
Connor (3)
Groves (3)
Cason (2)
B. Albert (2)
F. Jones
R. Smith
J. Hardy
C. Campbell (2)
J. Mayo
B. Flowers
Update on April 20, 2007--same 18 mocks
Certain to be gone: 11
Ryan
Ellis
Long
Long
Dorsey
Gholston
McFadden
McKelvin
Clady
C. Williams
Rivers
Almost Certain (95%): 4
Harvey (16)
Mendenhall (16)
DRC (17)
Albert (16)
Nearly Certain (80%): 2
D. Thomas (15)
Otah (15)
Better than Average Chance (60%): 2
Jenkins (13)
Merling (13)
Others Mentioned (50% or less): 13
Sweed (9)
Stewart (9)
Jackson (8)
Mayo (7)
C. Campbell (6)
Talib (4)
Phillips (4)
Brohm (2)
Groves (2)
J. Hardy (2)
Kelly (2)
Balmer
Cason
Basically, we can't hope to get anybody in the first two columns. There is little chance of the people in the third (nearly certain) either. So, look at the bottom two lists of players, pick your favorites, and start cheering. We want to hope that people like Brohm or Campbell or Merling go before us because I can't see us taking them no matter what. If those three would go before us, we'd have our pick of the rest.
This guide gives you a good idea of what we can expect and what we can hope for, all through Cowboy-tinted glasses.
