This is a well thought out analysis. Although using mock drafts as your basis can skew your results slighty, i think this will come close to being accurate data.
I did a similiar analysis, though not with mock drafts, but with my own belief on who will be selected. I went over several different scenarios of what could happen, and I was able to come up with around 18 players that almost certainly will be drafted before pick 22.
As you have pointed out, anyone else drafted before 22 that is not in that group will push down certain players.
- J. Long
- C. Long
- Dorsey
- Gholston
- McFadden
- Ellis
- Ryan
- McKelvin
- Clady
- Albert
- Rodgers-Cromartie
- Mendenhall
- Harvey
- Rivers
- Stewart
- Otah
- Jenkins
18.Williams
Group 2
Talib
D.Thomas
Merling
Mayo
Sweed
That is 18 that i figure should be drafted before pick 22, players listed as group 2 or anyone else drafted before 22, could push a player in group 1 down to the cowboys