Verdict
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One of the things I have noticed over time is that at certain positions, you generally need to select a player pretty highly in the draft or avoid selecting that position as a general rule. There are obviously exceptions to every rule, but they are pretty good starting places.
Generally, if you don't take QB, OT, DT, DE, Center, early, its probably a pretty significant crap shoot of finding one in the draft, especially after the 3rd round. They are also the "money" positions in free agency. They tend to be pushed up the board in drafts and are often over drafted as a result.
It seems like every year there are guys who come out of nowhere as late round picks, at other positions, like rb, wr, and db. There are a lot of guys who have really set the world on fire from these positions later on in the draft.
Sort of the odd duck positions that don't really fall into these two classes are linebacker, guard and tight end. You seem to get decent productivity out of middle round linebackers (3 and 4) but not so much after that. These seem to be middle round finds as a general rule.
Obviously players drafted highly generally have a higher grade coming out and a better chance of making it in the pros than a lower round player. My point to this isn't about forcing a pick, and taking bpa available all the way through the draft.
But in the later rounds 4-7, maybe we should be targeting the positions where the players seem to have a better chance at sticking around. For every Ratliff that makes it as a 7th round gem, there are dozens of Iveys that can't really do anything at all. When you see the Richard Shermans, the Kam Chancellors and the Antonio Browns of the world outperforming higher drafted players, maybe we should be putting more effort into evaluating and selecting those positions late in the draft..
Generally, if you don't take QB, OT, DT, DE, Center, early, its probably a pretty significant crap shoot of finding one in the draft, especially after the 3rd round. They are also the "money" positions in free agency. They tend to be pushed up the board in drafts and are often over drafted as a result.
It seems like every year there are guys who come out of nowhere as late round picks, at other positions, like rb, wr, and db. There are a lot of guys who have really set the world on fire from these positions later on in the draft.
Sort of the odd duck positions that don't really fall into these two classes are linebacker, guard and tight end. You seem to get decent productivity out of middle round linebackers (3 and 4) but not so much after that. These seem to be middle round finds as a general rule.
Obviously players drafted highly generally have a higher grade coming out and a better chance of making it in the pros than a lower round player. My point to this isn't about forcing a pick, and taking bpa available all the way through the draft.
But in the later rounds 4-7, maybe we should be targeting the positions where the players seem to have a better chance at sticking around. For every Ratliff that makes it as a 7th round gem, there are dozens of Iveys that can't really do anything at all. When you see the Richard Shermans, the Kam Chancellors and the Antonio Browns of the world outperforming higher drafted players, maybe we should be putting more effort into evaluating and selecting those positions late in the draft..
