Draft Strategy Thoughts

[xwalker]

It's not insane at all if the DT is disruptive and collapses the pocket. That sort of player cannot be underrated. The Bengals do not make the super bowl w/o Reader.

Jordon Davis is unlikely to be a Reader type player.

Davis is more likely Dontari Poe at best.

 

[cnuball21]

It's not insane at all if the DT is disruptive and collapses the pocket. That sort of player cannot be underrated. The Bengals do not make the super bowl w/o Reader.

Unfortunately there isn't one of those dudes in the draft this year...

 

[jrumann59]

• BPA
  • I would always have a BPA strategy with a lean to position value and need.
  • i.e. Use need and position value to differential player on the same prospect tier.

• Position Value
  • I always would always look for the premium positions in the 1st round.
  • The Franchise Tag value shows which positions the NFL values the most.
  • Not including QB: WRs, LTs, CBs and Pass Rushers including interior players,
  • Personally, I also consider OC as a top tier position because of limited availability.

• Problems with 'Pure' BPA strategy without position value considerations.
  • With a pure BPA approach, an OG might be the BPA in all rounds.
  • Starting at the top, the best OG often gets drafted after the top 5 OTs.
  • Some team ends up deciding between the top OG or the 6th best OT.
  • The same concept continues after the 1st round.
  • A team could end up drafting an OG in the 2nd every year with a pure BPA approach.

• Draft vs Free Agency
  • OG
  • I would prefer to sign OG-only type players in free agency.
    • An OG costs much less than the equivalent talent WR, etc..
  • If a draft prospect at OG is also a legit option at OC, then it's a different scenario.
  • TE
  • I would look for 1 in free agency.
    • Contracts are better value than WR contracts, etc..
  • If a complete TE is available in the draft, then lack of supply overrides position value.

• Safe Player vs High Risk/Reward Player
  • Zack Martin does not play a premium position, however...
    • He was the closest thing to a guaranteed All-Pro as it gets.
  • Every year there are a few players that have a 'high floor' even in the mid-rounds.
    • i.e. Seem almost certain to become at least an average starter.
    • OG Trai Turner 2014 Draft
      • Started out in draft media rankings as a late round pick.
      • I would have bet $10K that he would become a starter by year 2.
      • The Cowboys tried to trade into the 3rd to draft him.
    • Jason Witten
      • I have have bet more than $10K that he would become a starter.
      • I wanted to trade back into the late 1st to draft him.
      • I lost in when Parcells drafted a nobody player in the 2nd & bypassed Witten.
      • Parcells lucked into Witten in the 3rd.

• When drafting for need goes wrong.
  • If the Cowboys drafted a CB over Parsons.
  • If a team drafts an All Pro, then it does not matter what needs that team had at the time.
  • Parsons would have been the right pick regardless of need.
  • Even if the Cowboys already had Bobby Wagner, Darius Leonard and Fred Warner.

• When over-focusing on position value goes wrong.
  • Micah Parsons was considered an off-ball LB by the draft media.
  • How did the draft media overlook his pass rush ability?
  • Even without using him as a pass rusher, he has transcendent ability as pure LB.
  • Repeat: If a team drafts an All Pro it doesn't matter what position he plays.

good write up. The BPA dogma is annoying. When it should be BPA with caveats. Dallas will not draft a QB, most likely, unless one of the top QBs falls a la Aaron Rodgers, so if the BPA in the 1st round is QB Dallas would be "dumb" to do it.

 

[Verdict]

good write up. The BPA dogma is annoying. When it should be BPA with caveats. Dallas will not draft a QB, most likely, unless one of the top QBs falls a la Aaron Rodgers, so if the BPA in the 1st round is QB Dallas would be "dumb" to do it.

Yeah. Who would want to draft Rodgers when you have Favre. Or better year who would want a Brady/Mahomes/Rodgers when we have Dak. We like our guys, right?

 

[Croomraider]

BPA is always the best strategy! Let's see who falls and snag them up!

 

[DanA]

• BPA
  • I would always have a BPA strategy with a lean to position value and need.
  • i.e. Use need and position value to differential player on the same prospect tier.

• Position Value
  • I always would always look for the premium positions in the 1st round.
  • The Franchise Tag value shows which positions the NFL values the most.
  • Not including QB: WRs, LTs, CBs and Pass Rushers including interior players,
  • Personally, I also consider OC as a top tier position because of limited availability.

• Problems with 'Pure' BPA strategy without position value considerations.
  • With a pure BPA approach, an OG might be the BPA in all rounds.
  • Starting at the top, the best OG often gets drafted after the top 5 OTs.
  • Some team ends up deciding between the top OG or the 6th best OT.
  • The same concept continues after the 1st round.
  • A team could end up drafting an OG in the 2nd every year with a pure BPA approach.

• Draft vs Free Agency
  • OG
  • I would prefer to sign OG-only type players in free agency.
    • An OG costs much less than the equivalent talent WR, etc..
  • If a draft prospect at OG is also a legit option at OC, then it's a different scenario.
  • TE
  • I would look for 1 in free agency.
    • Contracts are better value than WR contracts, etc..
  • If a complete TE is available in the draft, then lack of supply overrides position value.

• Safe Player vs High Risk/Reward Player
  • Zack Martin does not play a premium position, however...
    • He was the closest thing to a guaranteed All-Pro as it gets.
  • Every year there are a few players that have a 'high floor' even in the mid-rounds.
    • i.e. Seem almost certain to become at least an average starter.
    • OG Trai Turner 2014 Draft
      • Started out in draft media rankings as a late round pick.
      • I would have bet $10K that he would become a starter by year 2.
      • The Cowboys tried to trade into the 3rd to draft him.
    • Jason Witten
      • I have have bet more than $10K that he would become a starter.
      • I wanted to trade back into the late 1st to draft him.
      • I lost in when Parcells drafted a nobody player in the 2nd & bypassed Witten.
      • Parcells lucked into Witten in the 3rd.

• When drafting for need goes wrong.
  • If the Cowboys drafted a CB over Parsons.
  • If a team drafts an All Pro, then it does not matter what needs that team had at the time.
  • Parsons would have been the right pick regardless of need.
  • Even if the Cowboys already had Bobby Wagner, Darius Leonard and Fred Warner.

• When over-focusing on position value goes wrong.
  • Micah Parsons was considered an off-ball LB by the draft media.
  • How did the draft media overlook his pass rush ability?
  • Even without using him as a pass rusher, he has transcendent ability as pure LB.
  • Repeat: If a team drafts an All Pro it doesn't matter what position he plays.

• To me, the success rate of O-line players in the 1st round overrides the high cost of positions like CB and WR.

• I also feel like “All-Pro” Zeke was a wasted pick despite his nomination, compare him to the likes of Jalen Ramsey, Ronnie Stanley, or Joey Bosa and he’s a bust. He’s not a 20m per season player like the others.
• I have no problem drafting for need but you’ve got to massage that need in your approach to free agency and draft day trades. The Micah Parsons draft was brilliant not just because he was a better pass rusher than we thought, but also because we had a need at LB, and were able squeeze an extra 3rd round pick out of the draft for basically nothing.

 

[DanA]

Everyone claims Taco was a reach because he didn't work out. He was not a reach. He was slated to go early 20s. I didn't like him because he'd only played at a high level for 1 year.

Gregory was considered top 10. Taking him in the 2nd wasn't a reach. It was a mistake due to obvious personality issues, but not a reach.

Joseph was a reach!!!! However, he could be considered BPA.

The difference in tape between TJ Watt and Taco was glaring to me. Watt was a baller, smart as hell, athleticism and hand use off the charts and we went Taco because we couldn’t see TJ as a hand in the dirt End…he was 6’5 with 34” arms….crazy

 

[CowboyoWales]

BPA is always the best strategy! Let's see who falls and snag them up!

I'd mostly agree, however, as the OP alludes to, it's more nuanced, especially when picking late in the round, in a draft that's not top heavy, but deep, on talent.
This is the year that luckily for us the BPA (or should I say players available) may well include positions of need, when it's close you go with need (especially RD1) as it helps in the short as well as long/medium term.
BPA should be renamed BVA ....(Best Value).
The BPA always seems to get weighted in favor of the shiny piece...when in reality we've got so much more from Zack Martin (ability, cornerstone, leadership, as a Guard never got ridiculous money, and as Jerry would love the dependability to help the CAP as the low contract starting point is eminently restructurable).

 

[xwalker]

The difference in tape between TJ Watt and Taco was glaring to me. Watt was a baller, smart as hell, athleticism and hand use off the charts and we went Taco because we couldn’t see TJ as a hand in the dirt End…he was 6’5 with 34” arms….crazy

The Cowboys successful draft picks are the ones they were 'sold' on when they drafted them.

Taco was an obvious split decision within the organization.
- Scouts wanted Watt and Marinelli wanted Taco.

 

[CowboyoWales]

I don't know whether this should be in the Free Agency thread, but covers draft as well.

With a draft that could yield anything: WR, Edge, O-D-Line....I think we'd want to keep our options (and CAP) open until we know what we draft.

One of our positives within our ultimate need (LG) is that:
a) there are two specialist LG's expected to go late 1st.
b) if they are gone, it's a position that can be plug and played on later rounds (eg-Ed Ingram), it's not a highly technical position.
c) If teams are drafting LG's as BPA in 1st round, I would think they would be shedding existing G's, may not be great, but surely an up grade on McGovern and we've got the available CAP to sign.

I suppose I'm looking at alternative ways around our need (LG), should a can't pass player falls to us at 24.

 

[garyv]

• BPA
  • I would always have a BPA strategy with a lean to position value and need.
  • i.e. Use need and position value to differential player on the same prospect tier.

• Position Value
  • I always would always look for the premium positions in the 1st round.
  • The Franchise Tag value shows which positions the NFL values the most.
  • Not including QB: WRs, LTs, CBs and Pass Rushers including interior players,
  • Personally, I also consider OC as a top tier position because of limited availability.

• Problems with 'Pure' BPA strategy without position value considerations.
  • With a pure BPA approach, an OG might be the BPA in all rounds.
  • Starting at the top, the best OG often gets drafted after the top 5 OTs.
  • Some team ends up deciding between the top OG or the 6th best OT.
  • The same concept continues after the 1st round.
  • A team could end up drafting an OG in the 2nd every year with a pure BPA approach.

• Draft vs Free Agency
  • OG
  • I would prefer to sign OG-only type players in free agency.
    • An OG costs much less than the equivalent talent WR, etc..
  • If a draft prospect at OG is also a legit option at OC, then it's a different scenario.
  • TE
  • I would look for 1 in free agency.
    • Contracts are better value than WR contracts, etc..
  • If a complete TE is available in the draft, then lack of supply overrides position value.

• Safe Player vs High Risk/Reward Player
  • Zack Martin does not play a premium position, however...
    • He was the closest thing to a guaranteed All-Pro as it gets.
  • Every year there are a few players that have a 'high floor' even in the mid-rounds.
    • i.e. Seem almost certain to become at least an average starter.
    • OG Trai Turner 2014 Draft
      • Started out in draft media rankings as a late round pick.
      • I would have bet $10K that he would become a starter by year 2.
      • The Cowboys tried to trade into the 3rd to draft him.
    • Jason Witten
      • I have have bet more than $10K that he would become a starter.
      • I wanted to trade back into the late 1st to draft him.
      • I lost in when Parcells drafted a nobody player in the 2nd & bypassed Witten.
      • Parcells lucked into Witten in the 3rd.

• When drafting for need goes wrong.
  • If the Cowboys drafted a CB over Parsons.
  • If a team drafts an All Pro, then it does not matter what needs that team had at the time.
  • Parsons would have been the right pick regardless of need.
  • Even if the Cowboys already had Bobby Wagner, Darius Leonard and Fred Warner.

• When over-focusing on position value goes wrong.
  • Micah Parsons was considered an off-ball LB by the draft media.
  • How did the draft media overlook his pass rush ability?
  • Even without using him as a pass rusher, he has transcendent ability as pure LB.
  • Repeat: If a team drafts an All Pro it doesn't matter what position he plays.

OL is really what we need to address. Currently our OL with Collins and Williams gone simply is missing pieces. Me personally in our top 3 picks I'm taking 2-OL and at #24 its Kenyon Green or Zion Johnson if both are gone than Linderbaum. With one of their next two picks depending on ranking I like Derrick Kinnard.

We could retool our line with 2-OL

 

[morasp]

Bob Sturm thought they could go offense in the first three rounds. Since the loss of Gregory we've seen them working out guys like Sam Williams.

 

[kiheikiwi]

If possible, I'd look to draft one of the guards at #24. Zion or Green.
At #56 I'd be trying to grab Travis Jones DT Ucon. And I would even package a couple of the 5th rounders to move up a bit.
3rd, 4th and 5th would be best available DE, WR and TE. Grab one of the kickers, and double up on a tackle and call it a day ....
About the best we can hope for.

 

[RS12]

When you are drafting at 24 it depends on who falls and having some luck. Do not reach and give me BPA who is least likely to bust.

 

[Sully]

The Cowboy Front Office has an excellent track record in rd 1, outside of a few poor decisions, they have gotten pro bowl type of talent regardless of the position. Where they have struggled the most is within the middle rounds, especially in rd 2, where they have taken chances on either injured or bad character players.

I really don't take what position they take at 24, as long as they take the best player.

Pump the breaks there with "excellent track record in Rd One:
2021: Micah Parsons --- after one season, A+ but want consistency in coming years
2020: CD Lambs --- Good rookie season but took a step back the following yeat. Now he is #1
2019: Tristen Hill ---- Bust
2018: LVE --- One good season but looking like a 1st rd Bust
2017: Taco Charleton: Complete BUST
2016: Zeke: Has been regression after a few good season. Not take a RB in 1st Rd
2015: Byron Jones: Good Cover CB that didn't create turnovers
2014: Zack Martin: HOF
2013: T Frederick: retired

So to say EXCELLENT is not true. Adequate @ best

 

[kiheikiwi]

Don't forget Hill was the # 52 pick I think ?
So he's a 2nd rounder, not a first. We gave that up foe Cooper I think.