USMarineVet
Well-Known Member
- Messages
- 2,686
- Reaction score
- 2,923
That's crap. There are Hall of Fame RBs without tree trunk thighs, a couple of whom I listed. And I'm not saying that DJ will be one of them, or even Pro Bowl quality or anything else, but nobody knew Emmitt would be the record holder one day and no one knows what kind of careers any of these college players will have in the NFL, including Duke Johnson. You have no clue what kind of ability he has as an NFL back. What we can say is that he's as big as lots of guys who have carried the load for a decade. That he demonstrated good vision in college. That he's got speed and wiggle and catches the ball extremely well.. So who the hell knows? Blair Thomas had perfect size, tremendous speed, college production, passed the eye test with flying colors and everything else. Everybody knew about him too.
Not trying to get into an argument, but speculation and projection are pretty close to being the same thing. You can project how a player will be used, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's going to transpire. Not until he actually gets to camp and they see where he fits best. That makes it speculation until he has an actual role.
With regards to your last sentence, that's your opinion on DJ.. So why would I say it? I absolutely feel that he's a fit for Dallas.
You keep saying he's undersized but yet he's an exact match (stature-wise) to the All-Time leading rusher in NFL history. I'm not saying he's Emmitt. I'm just saying his measurables are the same. He's listed at 207 lbs. That's a bulldog, with quickness and elusiveness and he's far from filling out at his age.
We can agree to disagree but you seem to be trying to impose your predication of what kind of back he is and how he fits in Dallas on me. If you disagree with my evaluation, again, that's fine. I'll respect your opinion just as much as I'll ask you to respect mine. But please don't put words in my mouth.
Time will inevitably tell the story on him if he runs behind a decent line.
Suggestion for a new avatar Rog.. What do you think?
http://i32.***BLOCKED***/albums/d48/USMarineVet/scrambled-toast-crystal-ball.jpg
You argument is simply not valid, so there is no problem.
Speculation many times is simply entertaining notions without grounding, projection in this particular context, is based on professional evaluation of all the evidence available on a given player.
This is not blind speculation based on an arbitrary criteria, it is all of the game tape, measurables and possible upside based on what we actually know about the player not what we wish him to be simply because we like him accordingly.
Emmitt Smith was a RARE talent and played in the NFL primarily in the 90's, the NFL was different and not every 5'9 back had his ability and attributes.
You can not make a valid argument based on a player from another era, with rare ability and lower leg size because there have been thousands of guys ES size that did not do squat, informing you that building an argument from the exception is problematic at its core.
I have put zero words in your mouth, I do disagree with your opinion and apparently you have no problem disagreeing with mine.
I know Dallas are not drafting Duke, they have been explicit on finding another work horse like Murray, this is not a pre-draft smoke screen to draft an undersized complimentary back, they have one tendered in Dunbar.
They have other options in this draft with better size, power and inside running ability to get those "dirty" runs they covet.
Here are two professional evaluations from prominent player evaluators which seem to be the general consensus with only a few variations on the subject.
There is really nothing else to say other than we disagree.
Weaknesses
Average inside runner, where feel and instincts are concerned. Vision fails him at times when running between the tackles. Won't always see initial hole and will mash turbo button, hoping to power through to second level. At times unwilling to do dirty work in pass protection. Looks for cut blocks rather than squaring up and playing with technique and toughness. Tries to run to daylight once in open field rather than just finishing runs. Hampered by injuries in 2014 and broke his ankle in 2013. Medicals will be combed over. Must improve ball security after fumbling six times over last two seasons.
Weaknesses:
Johnson’s weaknesses are the run-of-the-mill weaknesses for a scat back. At 5’9” and 207 pounds, he is too small to be an every-down back in the NFL and durability is a concern after several injuries in college. Johnson won’t be able to consistently grind out the tough yards up the middle of the field, nor does he have much experience pass-blocking. Johnson is a great change-of-pace player and complement to another back, but the fact that he is a role player limits his value in the NFL.
I've noticed you're mysteriously omitted his Strengths from this post. Hmmm...
Have a bowl of Lucky Charms. They're magically delicious!
What the heck. I'll say it one last time even though I've clearly stated it 3 times already.
I'm in no way comparing DJ to Emmitt. For the 4th and final time, I'm merely stating that he has the measurables of Emmitt Smith. Measurables that YOU clearly stated are insufficient to be a workhorse back.
You are speculating, or projecting, (since that is the word you like to use) that he will not be able to carry the load based on what evaluators say. JaMarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf were projected to be can't miss QBs. How did that turn out? You will never know what you have until you fit the player into your system and hand him the ball. The story won't be written until he plays out his career. Again, time will tell. But it will be through his actions and not your projections that will write the words on the page.
Sorry but was is crap is your perspective on Duke Johnson, sorry.
Duke Johnson is not in the same category of Emmitt Smith, he does not have the same attributes this this rare talent.
Duke has some good qualities as a player but is projected by the majority of scouts and evaluators, based on the college level play and evidence to be a rotational back at the next level.
Of course no one knows what any player will be with 100% certitude but probabilities are that Duke will be an effective back if used in the right system but probably will not be a featured work horse back.
Just as you claim I do not know, neither do you, so we go to the projections and college resume.
Duke is not a work horse back no matter how you slice it and is not a strong inside runner.
Further, Dallas is not interested in this type of back, they have said they desire a work horse like Murray, a strong and big back that excels inside.
Just say you like the player and his attributes but comparisons to backs back in the 80s and 90's or references rare and once in decade type of talent does nothing for your argument.
Duke is a solid complimentary back that has some great attributes that will never carry the load in a ball control offense, he will never be the work horse and 3 down back in today's NFL.
You, and others, discount DJ immediately as being too small, which is BS. NFL history is littered with RBs his size and smaller who carried the mail week in and week out. As I said previously, I'm not saying Duke will be another one of them. But arguing that he can't based strictly on size or build is complete hooey. It's equally ridiculous for you to say I can't compare DJ to this back or that back because he played in a different era or was a "one in a decade type of talent." This is kind of my point. Since the dawn of the NFL, there have been 5-9, 210 RBs who have had long, very successful careers as feature players, some of whom with busts in Canton, who the "experts" projected as too small, too slow or lacking the ability to be anything in the League but a change of pace and were subsequent steals somewhere beyond the first round.
You must have missed the part where I said I wouldn't want Johnson carrying the ball 350 times a season, but that I would like to see him touch it 15-23 times a game in space created by the Dallas OL, a wheel route or a screen, splitting 20 or so more touches with the other guys on the roster, that I'd like to see some explosion in the backfield instead of just another "power" back without home run wiggle and speed. I realize that a lot of people want that kind of bell cow instead of a couple guys sharing the load, but if that's the route you choose, I think you're leaving a lot of yards and points in the backfield. Evidently this is what Red wants, and I think that's too bad. I was kind of hoping we'd improve the defense so we can stop protecting it and be more aggressive on O. But, hey, if I knew so much I'd be on the sideline instead of my couch, eh?
Off topic--ish: I think a lot of Chip Kelly's offensive success in the NFL is owed to putting backs like McCoy and Sproles in space and letting them make DBs look silly, and if he's expecting the same game out of Murray and Mathews, he's going to be really disappointed.
Wow, this is really simple, the last time.
You are attempting to ground your argument for Duke Johnson on the proposition that a RB with similar size from another era of the NFL and with different ability and physical structure in terms of lower body, was successful at this size, therefore, so Duke can be also.
The problem with your proposition is that it is false contextually speaking.
Emmmit was a RARE athlete even during his era which is much different from today's game. There are thousands of guys his size that could not carry the load and did not have his type of success nor ability. This simply proves the game was different in another era and even in that specific era, Emmitt was special.
Further, these measurables are undersized for a 3 down, work horse back in OUR ERA, note the context, our era of football.
That is not to say there could not be a freak of nature that defies these odds in the modern era at that size but probabilities are not in favor of such.
The point is using measurables from the 90's on an exceptional player at that does not satisfy as a proper ground for a back in today's NFL in terms of a work horse.
All draft evaluators make projections but they are based on the case evidence, players can shatter these in some circumstances either way but probabilities are based on the evidence not a fairy tale story.
First, I am arguing that he is too small for a work horse in today's NFL AND that he lacks the inside running ability necessary for a ball control offense.
Using an exceptional player from a different era of the NFL to ground an argument for a back in today's landscape to have potential success as a work horse back in this era is propositionally false and pure poppycock.
You do not build valid arguments on false propositions and thus using invalid arguments supported by rare exceptions to the norm.
That is the point of contention in this thread and those are two of his critical weaknesses regardless of your opinion.
If you are arguing that Duke would be a great, part-time complimentary back, then we agree on the player in that regard.
At least you are honest about Dallas wanting the feature work horse back, sheesh!
Further, you are 100% on Chip, Murray does not fit his type of offense, crazy he let shady go!
I'm not going to repeat myself any further so at this point I'm simply going to ask you to redirect yourself back to my original post.
If you do so, you will find that at no time did I create any imaginations stating that Duke Johnson was Emmit-like or that he would fit in as a serviceable workhorse back for the Cowboys. You, Sir, have created this fictitious scenario.
I simply responded by saying that none of us know what he will truly become for the team that drafts him. Not you, not me and certainly not those who have evaluated, speculated on, or projected him to be. Only his performance in the NFL will tell that tale.
If, by chance, he IS drafted by the Cowboys, the coaching staff will dictate where he plays according to his skill set, the team's current makeup, and how he and the team's makeup evolves over the course of his career.
But make no mistake. You are the one who threw these opinions into the mix. I merely retorted with uncertainty over your allegations. I will not commit either way as I do not know how his career will unfold.
I see DJ as an excellent option if we can scoop him up in the 3rd. I think he will do well in whatever role he is placed in. This is my opinion and I believe I'm entitled to it. If I made bold allegations with regards to how he would be used or how his career is going to pan out, then I would welcome your criticism and be happy to engage you in a heated debate. But I've done no such thing. You've chosen to respond with your premonitions as to what he is and what he will become. To that, I have no response. At least not an intelligent or responsible one. I see him as what he is now; and not who or what he will become. Judging from what I've seen of the player, I think he will do well in the NFL. He's bested 3 formidable running backs in the NFL in his 3 short years at Miami. This is not what I think. This is what I KNOW. How he translates to the NFL is now up to him, but I have the arrow pointing up.
Justin Forsett is 5'8" - 198. He was the work horse for Baltimore last year. Granted, it was only for one year, but he still did it.
Johnsons measurables are pretty good.
Duke Johnson: 4.42 40 (4.33 best), 18 reps of 225, 435 squat, 301 power clean, 355 bench press, 36.5 vertical
https://www.canesinsight.com/threads/76613-UM-Weight-Room-Results
I need to point you to your own posts after your initial post and in response to my posts.
Rogerthat12 said: ↑ Jerry mentioned today they are looking for an every down back, not a scat back or 3rd down option.
I like Duke but he is simply too small and not an every down back.
And Jerry would never give misinformation about who the Cowboys are going to pick right before the draft, would he? LOL
Rogerthat12 said: ↑
I will remind you of this after the draft, no way are they drafting a part time back, they will draft a 3 down back to be sure.
I'm giving the guy some props because he was outstanding at Miami and gives the board something to consider. It's unlikely the Cowboys will draft him. About a 32/1 chance. But if it makes you feel better reminding me if we don't select him, go ahead. LOL.. I can take it.
But who's to say at this point that he's not a 3 down back? No one. None of us know what kind of back he will develop into. Not at this point. That's pure speculation.
First, your original post has nothing to do with the arguments YOU created by playing contrarian to my posts in this thread, this contradicts your first false proposition in this reply that I somehow created this argument!
Rogerthat12 said: ↑
Jerry mentioned today they are looking for an every down back, not a scat back or 3rd down option.
I like Duke but he is simply too small and not an every down back.
And Jerry would never give misinformation about who the Cowboys are going to pick right before the draft, would he? LOL
Rogerthat12 said: ↑
Jerry mentioned today they are looking for an every down back, not a scat back or 3rd down option.
I like Duke but he is simply too small and not an every down back.
Also, Duke too small? Emmitt is 5'9.. Duke is 5'9. As far was weight.. I don't remember Emmitt's playing weight but Duke is at 207 at 21 years old. That's pretty husky for a guy his height.
But who's to say at this point that he's not a 3 down back? No one. None of us know what kind of back he will develop into. Not at this point. That's pure speculation.
With regards to your last sentence, that's your opinion on DJ.. So why would I say it? I absolutely feel that he's a fit for Dallas.
You keep saying he's undersized but yet he's an exact match (stature-wise) to the All-Time leading rusher in NFL history. I'm not saying he's Emmitt. I'm just saying his measurables are the same. He's listed at 207 lbs. That's a bulldog, with quickness and elusiveness and he's far from filling out at his age.
I'm merely stating that he has the measurables of Emmitt Smith. Measurables that YOU clearly stated are insufficient to be a workhorse back.
Now lets examine your replies to my original post. You claim Jerry is just giving misinformation about wanting a 3 down work horse in the draft, questioning if this is true?
Second, you question Duke being too small, using Emmitt Smith to indicate that he could be a work horse because clearly Emmitt was no scat back or committee RB right?
Hence, by implication of your replies, Jerry is just pretending they want a work horse back and Duke with a similar frame to Emmitt, could be that work horse because lets face it, Emmitt was a work horse.
Then, you imply based on his measurables as compared to the work horse RB Emmitt Smith and that he can fill out like a bull dog, that he could be a work horse back in today's NFL.
You sir, are guilty of premature miscalculation and guilty of contradiction.
I simply reduced your argument to absurdity.
Most of us know it is a fact, stated by Garrett, Jerry and the front office that they desire to be a ball control offense, explicitly stating they want a work horse like Murray who can get those dirty runs by running inside.
Second, your proposition to your Emmitt argument is contextually false because it is built on an exception and from another era.
Third, your argument is invalid, because Duke Johnson as a general consensus, lacks the size, power and ability to be a work horse, inside, every down runner in today's NFL as you state above.
Fourth, I never argued Duke has no ability, or lacks college success and would not be a good fit in Dallas as a complimentary back, but certainly will not be a feature back in our ball control offense.
The only reason Duke is going to the NFL is based on his projection, including what round with respect to his probable ability on the next level, why draft at all if projections do not matter.
Exceptions can occur which was noted but when projected draft selections for a team stating they want a big work horse back like the Cowboys have just stated they desire, do you pick a 5'9 207 back when there are better options?
Further, Duke is weak at inside running, poor vision, small with injury history.
Thank you for emphasizing and validating everything I've just said. You've saved me the hassle of having to do so. I appreciate that.