Duke Johnson - 3rd Round Option

[Rogerthat12]

http://i32.***BLOCKED***/albums/d48/USMarineVet/jcnva.jpg

By the way, I'm sexier than you in this pic.

That's it. Game over. I win. Thank you for playing.

It was fun but you lose:

Contradiction

Invalid Argument

False proposition

We will revisit this after the draft, it will be fun!

 

[USMarineVet]

Sure thing...

But it won't be until he's had a sizable body of work over the course of the next few years until we'll be able to assess his fit and production in an NFL system.

 

[Rogerthat12]

Sure thing...

But it won't be until he's had a sizable body of work over the course of the next few years until we'll be able to assess his fit and production in an NFL system.

On that we agree!

 

[VACowboy]

First, I am arguing that he is too small for a work horse in today's NFL AND that he lacks the inside running ability necessary for a ball control offense.

You obviously didn't read my post. If you had you know that 1) I'm not advocating drafting Duke Johnson and feeding him the ball like DeMarco Murray, that 2) I'd like to see the Cowboys strive for more than dirty yards, and, maybe or maybe not 3) I think Duke Johnson splitting carries with DMC and Ryan Williams can be at least as effective as and give the offense a more explosive element than Romo handing the ball to TJ Yeldon 25 times a game. You don't have to play conservative offense to control the ball.

Using an exceptional player from a different era of the NFL to ground an argument for a back in today's landscape to have potential success as a work horse back in this era is propositionally false and pure poppycock.

That's totally your opinion, and that's cool. But...

You do not build valid arguments on false propositions and thus using invalid arguments supported by rare exceptions to the norm.

...I'd be interested to know how many carries or yards or whatever it takes for you to consider a player to be a "work horse," because I never said every 5-9, 210 pound running back coming in to the league had that capability. I argued that saying Duke Johnson can't be an every down player simply because of his size is wrong. LeSean McCoy. Ray Rice. Jamaal Charles. Justin Forsett. These guys play in today's NFL. Two of them are under 200 pounds. They were also among the top 10 NFL rushers in 2014. Would it surprise you to know that the average size of RBs was less in 2013 than it was when Emmitt played? How about the fact that the weight of RBs preferred by the people who choose them for a living today (2013) is higher by FIVE whole pounds than it was in 1970? It's actually been all over the place since then, from 210 to a low of 206 in the 80's to a high of 225 in 1998, 218 in 2006 and 215 in 2013.

These facts say to me that there isn't a magical target size that determines the quality or quantity of a running back's carries, but rather a lot of factors like vision, quickness, speed, strength and toughness. And none of that, including size, has changed appreciably in 45 years. Like almost everything else in the League, the concept of the ideal RB fluctuates, but really not very much.

I want to reiterate that I am NOT saying Duke Johnson is the next Emmitt Smith or LeSean McCoy or anybody else. I am taking exception to the idea that Duke Johnson can't be an every down back simply because of his size, and pointing out players from all eras of modern football to demonstrate the point. For discussion's sake I would also like to restate my position that I am fully in favor of acquiring the best talent we can and tailoring our playbooks to fit that talent. The only possible Emmitt Smith I see in this draft is Todd Gurley, and I think most people think like I do that he'll be long gone by #27. So I'd rather draft a guy with home run ability and take a two-back approach than select a guy with more power but who is much less likely to make big plays.

That is the point of contention in this thread and those are two of his critical weaknesses regardless of your opinion.

Ah, ok. So your opinion is the only one that counts. I see how this works now. Yes, I know you can quote "experts" who disagree with me, and mebbe they have watched more video than I have and get paid to give their opinions, but when it comes down to it it's just that, another opinion, and everybody has one. A ton of these professionals were screaming for the Cowboys to take Tony Mandarich instead of Troy back in the day. The brain trust in Green Bay surmised that he was better than Derrick Thomas and both Barry and Deion Sanders. How many teams passed on Tom Brady, Aaron Rogers and Russell Wilson? Randy Moss, anyone? It happens every single year in almost every single round, so pardon me if I make up my own mind.

If you are arguing that Duke would be a great, part-time complimentary back, then we agree on the player in that regard.

I don't think I know any more than anyone else on this board, but I don't talk about players I haven't seen play a lot, usually at least once in person. I'm a Virginia alum. I have no fondness for Miami and no particular love for Duke Johnson. But I have seen him play a lot over multiple years, and he looks like more than a "complimentary" back to me. Guess that all depends on your definition of "complimentary."

 

[Rogerthat12]

You obviously didn't read my post. If you had you know that 1) I'm not advocating drafting Duke Johnson and feeding him the ball like DeMarco Murray, that 2) I'd like to see the Cowboys strive for more than dirty yards, and, maybe or maybe not 3) I think Duke Johnson splitting carries with DMC and Ryan Williams can be at least as effective as and give the offense a more explosive element than Romo handing the ball to TJ Yeldon 25 times a game. You don't have to play conservative offense to control the ball.



That's totally your opinion, and that's cool. But...



...I'd be interested to know how many carries or yards or whatever it takes for you to consider a player to be a "work horse," because I never said every 5-9, 210 pound running back coming in to the league had that capability. I argued that saying Duke Johnson can't be an every down player simply because of his size is wrong. LeSean McCoy. Ray Rice. Jamaal Charles. Justin Forsett. These guys play in today's NFL. Two of them are under 200 pounds. They were also among the top 10 NFL rushers in 2014. Would it surprise you to know that the average size of RBs was less in 2013 than it was when Emmitt played? How about the fact that the weight of RBs preferred by the people who choose them for a living today (2013) is higher by FIVE whole pounds than it was in 1970? It's actually been all over the place since then, from 210 to a low of 206 in the 80's to a high of 225 in 1998, 218 in 2006 and 215 in 2013.

These facts say to me that there isn't a magical target size that determines the quality or quantity of a running back's carries, but rather a lot of factors like vision, quickness, speed, strength and toughness. And none of that, including size, has changed appreciably in 45 years. Like almost everything else in the League, the concept of the ideal RB fluctuates, but really not very much.

I want to reiterate that I am NOT saying Duke Johnson is the next Emmitt Smith or LeSean McCoy or anybody else. I am taking exception to the idea that Duke Johnson can't be an every down back simply because of his size, and pointing out players from all eras of modern football to demonstrate the point. For discussion's sake I would also like to restate my position that I am fully in favor of acquiring the best talent we can and tailoring our playbooks to fit that talent. The only possible Emmitt Smith I see in this draft is Todd Gurley, and I think most people think like I do that he'll be long gone by #27. So I'd rather draft a guy with home run ability and take a two-back approach than select a guy with more power but who is much less likely to make big plays.



Ah, ok. So your opinion is the only one that counts. I see how this works now. Yes, I know you can quote "experts" who disagree with me, and mebbe they have watched more video than I have and get paid to give their opinions, but when it comes down to it it's just that, another opinion, and everybody has one. A ton of these professionals were screaming for the Cowboys to take Tony Mandarich instead of Troy back in the day. The brain trust in Green Bay surmised that he was better than Derrick Thomas and both Barry and Deion Sanders. How many teams passed on Tom Brady, Aaron Rogers and Russell Wilson? Randy Moss, anyone? It happens every single year in almost every single round, so pardon me if I make up my own mind.



I don't think I know any more than anyone else on this board, but I don't talk about players I haven't seen play a lot, usually at least once in person. I'm a Virginia alum. I have no fondness for Miami and no particular love for Duke Johnson. But I have seen him play a lot over multiple years, and he looks like more than a "complimentary" back to me. Guess that all depends on your definition of "complimentary."

This is a tired argument at this point and will be the last of discussion on the matter from me.

We essentially agree that Duke has value as a committee back, he has valuable traits but not as work horse like Murray.

Due to his size and ability, he lacks the power to run inside and get those dirty yards, he is a better fit in a committee approach with limited snaps on the next level.

I have argued that he lacks the size, power and inside running ability, all three, simply not one feature all over the pages of these exchanges.

Just because there are a few undersized backs in the current NFL does not support an argument for Duke as a work horse back, Charles and others also have inside running ability and power which Duke does not at that level.

Again, you are comparing different skills sets based on size alone, these other backs have other traits that assist them and perhaps better offensive fits.

The critical distinction that most "forum draft experts" fail to realize is that even though everyone has an opinion, it does not make them all right or informed.

Having an informed opinion certainly takes into consideration the professionals, pro scouts, coaches and college tape of the given players actual performances.

All draft choices are a projection, they go by round or undrafted based on probable projection on the next level. Why have a draft if projections do not matter? Why have rounds?

Further, you do not argue from the exceptions, there will always exceptions, misevaluations or other factors that may have one player outperform or under perform from their projection.

However, considering the amount of players drafted each and every year, that is simply not the rule overall.

Most of the anti-expert jargon spewed on these boards are from fans who have little understanding of player evaluation, what to look for and when they look, they have an untrained eye in terms of evaluating ability on the next level.

It is fine to claim to have your own opinion, just some of us like to be informed before we come to an opinion.

It is funny how most of the informed draft experts have pretty solid consensus on Duke Johnson and his projection at the NFL level.

I have watched Duke play and reviewed a decent amount of game tape, I tend to agree with most of the experts on the subject.

Everyone comes to conclusions, the question is do they correspond to the actual evidence given and are they probable based on that information.

There is never 100% certitude what any player will be, it is all probabilities, the draft process is based on player evaluation of probability on the next level.

Choose to believe what you want but I have applied my eyes and mind to the subject and my opinion concurs with the experts on Duke Johnson.

 

[VACowboy]

Choose to believe what you want but I have applied my eyes and mind to the subject and my opinion concurs with the experts on Duke Johnson.

http://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/201...hnson-most-talented-running-back-in-the-draft

Post Line of Scrimmage
This is where you'll see the running back show off his power and leg drive by pushing the pile. Or show off the speed to out run angles by linebackers. You'll also see backs set up defenders with a move, sometimes layered moves if they're special. Post line of scrimmage, Duke is special.

34% of Johnson's yards came after contact. He had nice holes at times, but Miami was 50th in adjusted line yards in the country. Duke creates on his own, and that's what you have to do. Once every 4 touches Johnson broke a tackle. I'm interested to see how that stacks up against the other runners in the class because it sounds mighty impressive now.

Below is a run where I mean "layered moves." Johnson is setting up the 1st man in space, already thinking of what he's going to do next. This is what great backs do. There's no dancing here.

There is a split amongst draft evaluators about whether Johnson is a feature back or scatback in the NFL. He possesses measurables similar to Frank Gore, but also to Gio Bernard. A slippery tackle-breaker with exceptional pass-catching ability but underrated inside running chops, we believe Johnson warrants a chance to be a lead NFL runner as opposed to a change-up guy.

Johnson routinely runs through arm tackles in the hole, while also displaying the aggressiveness to finish runs with authority. His willingness to take on tacklers at the end of runs is uncommon for a back that weighs fewer than 200 pounds. Although slamming Johnson between the tackles against loaded boxes isn't an ideal tactic, his toughness, competitive zeal and power make him a legitimate threat as a workhorse runner in a pro-style offense.

Some backs are speed guys, others rely on power. Duke Johnson has both in his bag of tricks. At 5’9″ and 207 lbs., skeptics might say the Miami back is too undersized to be effective in the big leagues. I would beg to differ. Duke is a violent competitor who will fight for every inch ahead of him, and you will not see many guys (regardless of size) who will run as tough as he does. Bringing this kid down is no easy feat by any means, Johnson is so good at shrugging of tacklers by keeping his feet churning and utilizing his deadly stiff-arm. However, do not be mistaken. As much as he would love to run through a defender, he has no problem running by them either.

The U product is explosive in between the tackles and around the corner once he puts his foot in the dirt and decides where he wants to go. He is not the fastest back out there, but he might just be the quickest. He is shifty and slippery when given open space, possessing the ability to start and stop so suddenly. Simply put, he is a nightmare one-on-one in the open field. Another admirable quality is his great patience in the backfield behind his lineman. He has a great sense of waiting for things to develop before attacking the line of scrimmage. His vision is also tremendous and allows him to find cutback lanes as a one-cut style runner. A back like Johnson excels in a zone-blocking system where he can pick his way, find a cutback hole, and then hit the hole with “one-cut.” Below exhibits how Johnson is the total package: he is patient, trusts his vision, utilizes two jump-cuts, and he is off to the races. Miami’s all-time leading rusher is also a very reliable pass catcher. He was used often in the passing game in college and can be split out as another receiver.

Johnson runs bigger than his size and he has a complete game as a receiver, blocker, return specialist, and interior runner. The Miami runner’s style is well within the spectrum of Chris Johnson and Clinton Portis. He’s a mashup of these two successful NFL talents, with a dash of Charles added to the mix.

The question will be how close is his talent to that of these three backs? If Johnson’s athleticism makes him capable of executing a wide variety of plays that NFL coaches would often mete to different backs in a committee, then he’ll be a feature back, because the vision, balance, and smarts are all there.

 

[cmoney23]

I love Duke Johhnson in this draft. He is also my pet cat.

 

[Idgit]

Guy's got good vision, sets up blocks well, good speed in the open field. Looks a little bit like Warrick Dunn did coming out of college to me.

I'd like him as a change of pace back, but he doesn't really fit the bill for what we're in the market for right now.

 

[VACowboy]

Guy's got good vision, sets up blocks well, good speed in the open field. Looks a little bit like Warrick Dunn did coming out of college to me.

I'd like him as a change of pace back, but he doesn't really fit the bill for what we're in the market for right now.

I know. I am resigned. I'll shaddep now.

 

[locked&loaded]

lol at the argument that occurred over the last two pages.

 

[Brooksey]

Wow, this is really simple, the last time.

You are attempting to ground your argument for Duke Johnson on the proposition that a RB with similar size from another era of the NFL and with different ability and physical structure in terms of lower body, was successful at this size, therefore, so Duke can be also.

The problem with your proposition is that it is false contextually speaking.

Emmmit was a RARE athlete even during his era which is much different from today's game. There are thousands of guys his size that could not carry the load and did not have his type of success nor ability. This simply proves the game was different in another era and even in that specific era, Emmitt was special.

Further, these measurables are undersized for a 3 down, work horse back in OUR ERA, note the context, our era of football.

That is not to say there could not be a freak of nature that defies these odds in the modern era at that size but probabilities are not in favor of such.

The point is using measurables from the 90's on an exceptional player at that does not satisfy as a proper ground for a back in today's NFL in terms of a work horse.

All draft evaluators make projections but they are based on the case evidence, players can shatter these in some circumstances either way but probabilities are based on the evidence not a fairy tale story.

5'9 210 is not to small to be a 3 down back, especially behind this offensive line.

Now 5'7 180...that's another story.

 

[Rogerthat12]

5'9 210 is not to small to be a 3 down back, especially behind this offensive line.

Now 5'7 180...that's another story.

It really depends on the backs other traits, some backs this size lack the power to run inside and are thus outside runners.

What you want with this line is a powerful inside runner who gets down hill and punishes defenses similar to Murray.