Early look at the NFC Conference

[gjkoeppen]

Nonsense. Disqualifies? Maybe in your dreams.

Just look at the record of how many teams that lost the Super Bowl and the next year didn't make the playoffs.
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[gjkoeppen]

We'll see how the coaching change goes before labeling the Cowboys as serious contenders.

I've been fairly quite on McCarthy but I'm going to wait and see what he does before proclaiming what a great signing he was. The last 2 seasons in Green Bay were not good People here say Prescott isn't like Rodgers who can win games by himself but McCarthy had Rodgers and they didn't do very good and McCarthy got fired after 12 games before the 2018 season was over. Now I hope he turns things around here but like I said, I'm going to wait and see before saying the Cowboys are a shoe in for the playoffs.
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[Flamma]

That's the one thing that disqualifies the 49ers from being the favorite in my opinion. The SB loss hangover seems to be a very real thing.

Historically SB losers have done ok. Win or lose it's hard to get back to the SB. I think only 15 or 16 times did any team string more than 1 SB together, and 6 of those times it was the loser that did it. But most of the time the loser has at least returned to the playoffs.

 

[Flamma]

Just look at the record of how many teams that lost the Super Bowl and the next year didn't make the playoffs.
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6 times they returned to the SB. A total of 34 times they either made the playoffs or returned to the SB. I could be off by 1 or 2, give or take.

 

[Ranched]

We'll see how the coaching change goes before labeling the Cowboys as serious contenders.

 

[TheSkaven]

I believe that the NFC is truly up for grabs this year. With the new format, only one team will get a BYE week this year and there will be 7 playoff teams, so which I hate by the way but it is what it is.

I'd rank them this way:

1. Cowboys
2. Saints
3. Eagles
4. Vikings
5. Seahawks
6. Buccaneers
7. 49ers
8. Packers
9. Cardinals
10. Rams
11. Falcons
12. Commanders
13. Giants
14. Bears
15. Lions
16. Panthers

Yeah, I really do think that the Cowboys are the best team in the NFC, but you could make a case for any of the teams in the top 5 there.

The playoff seeds should look something like:

(1) Cowboys
(2) Saints
(3) Vikings
(4) Seahawks
(5) Eagles
(6) Buccaneers
(7) 49ers or Packers

Think about it - if you don't get that first round bye now, and there's only one, you could be a 13-3 #2 seed and have to face the defending NFC champions in the wildcard round. That sucks, no two ways about it.

 

[jterrell]

The facts are that half the playoff field gets overturned every season. Now the field has increased to 7 teams, with just the #1 seed getting the bye. We cannot predict injuries, but here are the most contending teams in the conference:

-Eagles-with better health that have as much talented as any team. Secondary is still a question mark.
-Cowboys-it's all about improving their defense and special teams.
-Saints-probably the most talented roster in the entire league, one of the favorites to win the conference
-Bucs-Brady/Gronk should help, but still have issues on defense.
-Falcons-they gave the top teams fits at the end of the season, fixed pass rush, dark horse contender
-Packers-did very little to improve their roster, Rodgers still there makes them a contender
-Bears-they have everything but a QB. Could Foles turn this team into a contender?
-Vikings-they made sweeping changes throughout their roster, probably take a step back this season
-49ers-favorite to win, but Super Bowl losers tend to take a step back. They are the hunted,
-Seahawks-even not the most talented roster, they are consistent every year, solid playoff contender
-Rams-kind of like the Vikings, made sweeping changes, probably will set them back for this year
-Cardinals-this is another dark horse contender, if they fix their OL, could be dangerous

For my take I'll use a Vegas odds site:

https://mybookie.ag/sportsbook/nfl/nfc/

San Fran: Excellent Coaches both sides of the ball and arguably the best defense in the league. Losing Buckner hurts but adding Kinlaw assuages much of that loss.
Negs- 1st place schedule, larger target, Only 2 draft picks first 200 choices and targeted immediate losses in Buckner and E Sanders at positions where rookies often need time. FA was mostly about treading water.

New Orleans: Brees is still making great pre-snap reads and they are so tough at home. Added veterans like E Sanders and Malcolm Jenkins from competitors. Good coaching and in win at all costs mode. Targeted draftees that could help early with their limited ammo. Very talented roster.
Negs- Very aging roster who only had 1 pick in top 70 and 4 overall. Road performances can be a struggle. Brees is a whiz on quick read, short pass stuff but he's losing arm strength and doesn't present as many challenges down the field. NO defense has been spotty at best historically.

Tampa Bay: Best WR corps in football and you add Brady and Gronk in a city where you can practice football year round. Draft offered a starting OT in Wirfs and a day 1 player in safety Antoine Winfield, Jr. Team brings excitement and ratcheted up expectations. Young defense was bolstered with veteran FA signings the past couple seasons. Team is built to win it all. Not facing a 1st place schedule like many contenders.
Negs: Brady is just really really old. Having seen Joe Montana in Kansas City this is what that feels like. Brady has targets far better than what he did in NE but he loses BB. TB has to learn to win and fast. Teams seldom go from no where to SB champs in 1 season and that is the task here given they haven't even made the playoffs since 2007.

Dallas Cowboys: Arguably, best offense in football gets a SB winning Head Coach. Arguably best draft of any NFC team much less contender. Team with 30th best WR corps in 2018 could now be top 3. Analytics darling who under-performed by almost 3 game last season. 2nd place schedule has been the key to winning the NFCE in recent past where 1 game has decided it fairly often. ST coaching hire and attention promises much better 2020 for 30th best ST unit.
Negs: Contract situation at QB never good news. Defense has average at best talent everywhere but LB and that group massively under-performed in 2019. With a new staff in place not having a full off-season is a negative. Tough divisional foe might be even more talented on paper. Lost elite cover guy in Byron Jones and it's best pure pass rusher in Quinn. Likely soemwhat dependent on guys with suspension histories for it's RDE pass rush.

Phil Eagles: If you forget health and age Eagles likely have the best roster in football. Added very talented pieces in Hargrave and Slay. Philly has an elite level defense and lots of hard won experience. The ceiling for the Eagles is absolutely Super Bowl.
Negs: They rate below a few others based on their floor. Lots of age on the roster and it is VERY top heavy. Depth has come back to bite them in recent seasons and they seemed to double down adding high talent and salaries in Hargrave and Slay. Draft provided one immediate player in WR Jalen Raegor but with only two top 100 selections using 53 on a really raw developmental QB seems strange. Much more so when you have your future tied to a franchise QB that has 108M in guarantees. Team pretty dependent on guys with iffy health histories.

Seattle: Elite QB and good defense is generally the framework for a championship level team. Consistently good coaching. One of the leagues; best home field advantages. Team has won a lot and is no stranger to big games but it is also hungry after revamping on the fly and coming up short a few years in a row.
Negs: Very tough overall division and probably not an elite roster top to bottom. Russ doesn't have the same kind of weapons some other top QBs do. Early draft grades suggest one of worst returns. Slight reaches and few guys graded top 50 in this class. Russ magic is real but also sees the QB take some abuse.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Just look at the record of how many teams that lost the Super Bowl and the next year didn't make the playoffs.
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Unless it was all of them, then it hardly disqualifies them. And SF is a team on the rise and they have gotten stronger this offseason.

 

[Flamma]

You can take out the Saints, Eagles, 49ers, Rams, Seahawks, Vikings, & Greenbay. They paid thier QBs so they have no chance. Must be true, I heard it in the Zone

Some people may think this. But for many of us it's not just the fact they got paid, but how much of the cap they are taking up after getting paid. Let's look at the teams you've mentioned.

Brees takes up 11.9%
Wentz is at 9.3%
Garopopopolous or whatever his name is takes up 13.4%
Cousins is at 10.6% and Rodgers is around the same.

Teams have won in the past with those numbers. Every one of them are well within the range to win with Cousins being borderline.

 

[gjkoeppen]

Unless it was all of them, then it hardly disqualifies them. And SF is a team on the rise and they have gotten stronger this offseason.

So if it turns out that they don't make the playoffs then what? Having a Super Bowl hangover wouldn't have gotten to be such a popular saying if it didn't happen often enough.
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[Flamma]

I believe we'll get the first round bye and then lose to the 9-7 Rams.

 

[KJJ]

The Cowboys are clearly one of the top 7 teams in the NFC. It would be a huge disappointment if they didn't make the playoffs. Even bigger than last year. But they will and they should win in postseason, possibly (if not probably) several games.

On paper we’re clearly one of the top 7 teams in the NFC and it was the same heading into last season. Unfortunately what we see on paper seldom translates on the field during the regular season. You would have to go back a ways to find an off-season where we all expected the Cowboys to have a good season and they did. I’m not so sure we’re better at this very moment than we were last year. Offensively we may be better with the addition of Lamb but there’s still a lot of questions about the defense. The loss of Quinn could loom large, he led the team in sacks last season. McCoy and Poe are on the downside of their careers. It’s not like they were gangbusters for the Panthers last season.

The Cowboys will be McCoy’s third team in three seasons. We lost our top pass rusher and our top corner in free agency. It’s going to come down to how much we get out of these young defensive players we drafted. Another concern is a new HC having to implement their system during a virtual offseason. No OTA’s or mini camps. It’s going to be very difficult for a new coach to prepare a team virtually. I’m going to keep my expectations to a minimum until we see what we have in pads on the field whenever that happens. The biggest mistake fans make with the Cowboys is getting their expectations too high.

 

[Cowboyny]

For my take I'll use a Vegas odds site:

https://mybookie.ag/sportsbook/nfl/nfc/

San Fran: Excellent Coaches both sides of the ball and arguably the best defense in the league. Losing Buckner hurts but adding Kinlaw assuages much of that loss.
Negs- 1st place schedule, larger target, Only 2 draft picks first 200 choices and targeted immediate losses in Buckner and E Sanders at positions where rookies often need time. FA was mostly about treading water.

New Orleans: Brees is still making great pre-snap reads and they are so tough at home. Added veterans like E Sanders and Malcolm Jenkins from competitors. Good coaching and in win at all costs mode. Targeted draftees that could help early with their limited ammo. Very talented roster.
Negs- Very aging roster who only had 1 pick in top 70 and 4 overall. Road performances can be a struggle. Brees is a whiz on quick read, short pass stuff but he's losing arm strength and doesn't present as many challenges down the field. NO defense has been spotty at best historically.

Tampa Bay: Best WR corps in football and you add Brady and Gronk in a city where you can practice football year round. Draft offered a starting OT in Wirfs and a day 1 player in safety Antoine Winfield, Jr. Team brings excitement and ratcheted up expectations. Young defense was bolstered with veteran FA signings the past couple seasons. Team is built to win it all. Not facing a 1st place schedule like many contenders.
Negs: Brady is just really really old. Having seen Joe Montana in Kansas City this is what that feels like. Brady has targets far better than what he did in NE but he loses BB. TB has to learn to win and fast. Teams seldom go from no where to SB champs in 1 season and that is the task here given they haven't even made the playoffs since 2007.

Dallas Cowboys: Arguably, best offense in football gets a SB winning Head Coach. Arguably best draft of any NFC team much less contender. Team with 30th best WR corps in 2018 could now be top 3. Analytics darling who under-performed by almost 3 game last season. 2nd place schedule has been the key to winning the NFCE in recent past where 1 game has decided it fairly often. ST coaching hire and attention promises much better 2020 for 30th best ST unit.
Negs: Contract situation at QB never good news. Defense has average at best talent everywhere but LB and that group massively under-performed in 2019. With a new staff in place not having a full off-season is a negative. Tough divisional foe might be even more talented on paper. Lost elite cover guy in Byron Jones and it's best pure pass rusher in Quinn. Likely soemwhat dependent on guys with suspension histories for it's RDE pass rush.

Phil Eagles: If you forget health and age Eagles likely have the best roster in football. Added very talented pieces in Hargrave and Slay. Philly has an elite level defense and lots of hard won experience. The ceiling for the Eagles is absolutely Super Bowl.
Negs: They rate below a few others based on their floor. Lots of age on the roster and it is VERY top heavy. Depth has come back to bite them in recent seasons and they seemed to double down adding high talent and salaries in Hargrave and Slay. Draft provided one immediate player in WR Jalen Raegor but with only two top 100 selections using 53 on a really raw developmental QB seems strange. Much more so when you have your future tied to a franchise QB that has 108M in guarantees. Team pretty dependent on guys with iffy health histories.

Seattle: Elite QB and good defense is generally the framework for a championship level team. Consistently good coaching. One of the leagues; best home field advantages. Team has won a lot and is no stranger to big games but it is also hungry after revamping on the fly and coming up short a few years in a row.
Negs: Very tough overall division and probably not an elite roster top to bottom. Russ doesn't have the same kind of weapons some other top QBs do. Early draft grades suggest one of worst returns. Slight reaches and few guys graded top 50 in this class. Russ magic is real but also sees the QB take some abuse.

Excellent response. Here is my question for you: 50% turnover happens every year for the teams who make the playoff in each conference, now there is another spot, which teams fail to repeat and which teams take their spots:

Last year's field was 49ers, Packers, Saints, Eagles, Seahawks, Vikings

 

[TexasHillbilly]

IMO

This whole season is about Kansas City vs. Baltimore. Whoever wins the playoff game between them will probably beat the nfc representative by at least 7.

in the back of my mind I wonder if Belichick knows this and it is the reason he didn't panic and sign a known qb.

That's what everybody thought last year about the Ravens but the Tit-ans took out both the Pats and the Ravens. I blame the ravens loss on the qb. He was out of it all day.

 

[jterrell]

Some people may think this. But for many of us it's not just the fact they got paid, but how much of the cap they are taking up after getting paid. Let's look at the teams you've mentioned.

Brees takes up 11.9%
Wentz is at 9.3%
Garopopopolous or whatever his name is takes up 13.4%
Cousins is at 10.6% and Rodgers is around the same.

Teams have won in the past with those numbers. Every one of them are well within the range to win with Cousins being borderline.

It makes zero difference.
You can either pay the QB now or defer his money in later caps.
If you choose to push out the QB you can then decide whether to pay or eat others contracts on a yearly basis.

The real issue is draft picks.
If you have enough and draft well you will have a very manageable cap.
If you fail you will need to hit free agency which is expensive.

Sometimes stats reflect will not situation.
Teams who eat large cap numbers at QB often do so intentionally.
Generally in a case where a guy isn't being extended and thus is not the long term answer.
See Matt Stafford last year, Joe Flacco in 2017 and many others.
Teams intentionally eat big cap hits most often when they don't expect to be competing for titles.

In 2020 Dak's 31.4m is the top cap hit.
But that number is unlikely to remain there and fin fact he will likely fairly cheap by franchise QB standards for 2 seasons then you extend him in year 3 or 4 to reduce his cap hits again.

BUT if you decide 4 years is it. Then he would have a massive cap outlay in mostly GTD money in year 3
A team eating that and not having any real SB expectation is common.

In 2016 when the Cowboys went 13-3 they did so with the 5th highest QB cap hit and the guy making the vast majority of that money didn't even play.

The truth is it is hard to win a SB regardless of salary so 30 teams are going to look like they are doing it wrong EVERY YEAR.

 

[jterrell]

Excellent response. Here is my question for you: 50% turnover happens every year for the teams who make the playoff in each conference, now there is another spot, which teams fail to repeat and which teams take their spots:

Last year's field was 49ers, Packers, Saints, Eagles, Seahawks, Vikings

whew.. that's tough.
my best guesses ignoring Vegas

Fallers:
Pack --They already crapped on Rodgers so good luck.
Eagles --I know this a homer Dallas call but without a quality back up QB they do not make 2 of the last 3 playoffs. Aging roster. Hated their draft for 2020 return.

Risers:
Dallas --Barely missed and improved ST, coaching.
Tampa Bay --Tom gets them in the playoffs if not as far as people think.
Chicago --Gets enough at QB this year to squeak in.

With the 7th team this year I am cheating and saying only 2 drop out.
Seedings for WAG fun:
1. NO
2. SF
3. DAL
4. MIN
5. SEA
6. TB
7. CHI

Can DAL beat Brady in Dallas? Whew.....



p.s. I cheated my initial list and flipped SEA/TB to get that match up.

 

[Flamma]

In 2020 Dak's 31.4m is the top cap hit.
But that number is unlikely to remain there and fin fact he will likely fairly cheap by franchise QB standards for 2 seasons then you extend him in year 3 or 4 to reduce his cap hits again.

If they give Dak a 4 year deal, and remember, it's not an extension, it's a new deal. If it's a 4 year deal 35M per he will be taking up around 15-17% of the cap for at least the next 3 years. Then they can extend him and lower that cap hit. But over the next 3 years I don't see the cap hit being under 15% of the cap.

 

[Cowboyny]

whew.. that's tough.
my best guesses ignoring Vegas

Fallers:
Pack --They already crapped on Rodgers so good luck.
Eagles --I know this a homer Dallas call but without a quality back up QB they do not make 2 of the last 3 playoffs. Aging roster. Hated their draft for 2020 return.

Risers:
Dallas --Barely missed and improved ST, coaching.
Tampa Bay --Tom gets them in the playoffs if not as far as people think.
Chicago --Gets enough at QB this year to squeak in.

With the 7th team this year I am cheating and saying only 2 drop out.
Seedings for WAG fun:
1. NO
2. SF
3. DAL
4. MIN
5. SEA
6. TB
7. CHI

Can DAL beat Brady in Dallas? Whew.....



p.s. I cheated my initial list and flipped SEA/TB to get that match up.

I think both Dallas and Philly make the postseason this yr, see a drop-off in the NFC North with both the Packers/Vikings. Chicago is a good surprise team, mine is Arizona:

1-New Orleans
2-Seattle
3-Dallas
4-Green Bay
5-Tampa Bay
6-Philly
7-Arizona

 

[jterrell]

If they give Dak a 4 year deal, and remember, it's not an extension, it's a new deal. If it's a 4 year deal 35M per he will be taking up around 15-17% of the cap for at least the next 3 years. Then they can extend him and lower that cap hit. But over the next 3 years I don't see the cap hit being under 15% of the cap.

It doesn't really work that way.
On a 4 year deal with no carrying over form previous deals the year 1 cap it generally small.

Examples:

4 year 35AVV, 140T, 108M GTD.
SB of 40M
year 1. Salary of 7M.
year 2. 26m
year 3 32m
year 4. 32m

year 1. cap hit is 17m --this is pretty standard across the league
year 2. cap hit is 36m --UNLESS they flip his salary to restructure bonus.
Then it goes
year 2 RB of 21M, base of 5M.--cap hit is now 7+10+5= 22M

year 3 is the tricky part.
If they think he is the guy they can either restructure with added years or eat the massive year 3 and 4 salaries.
Likely they extend him going in to year 3. Add 3 years to the 2 remaining and get to flipping money again.
If they don't they eat the massive year 3 contract then cut him post June year 4 to spread off his cap hits.

They regain the 32M in year 4 while eating lots of dead money but spread over 2 years.

Also keep in mind teams are generally rolling over large sums each year. So basically the cap is say 220 but they bring another 12M.
The QB's cap % can be divided by 232 in a year where they need to eat his salary thus lowering his actual cap %.

Teams really good at cap mgmt can either get lucky with an elite QB on a rookie deal --See Pat, Russ, Dak. Or they can balance books by drafting well thus providing cheap iinternal solutions and allowing vets to get paid elsewhere thus bringing in even more draft capital in comp picks.

 

[jterrell]

I think both Dallas and Philly make the postseason this yr, see a drop-off in the NFC North with both the Packers/Vikings. Chicago is a good surprise team, mine is Arizona:

1-New Orleans
2-Seattle
3-Dallas
4-Green Bay
5-Tampa Bay
6-Philly
7-Arizona

Def could see Arizona sneak in.
Great draft and exciting young QB with very good QB tutor in KK.
I considered them but think the TB overall roster is just better this year.

I def have lower expectations for GB.
I don't see AR playing nicely nor Love being ready for a couple seasons.
They really have a sad WR corps in GB.

I have a hard time seeing SF fall all the way out with that defense and coaching and receiving weapons.


But all in all these are all teams I think will be in top 10 in NFC unless weird injuries or such occur.