ESPN Insider: Eagles not Cowboys NFCE Favorite

[YosemiteSam]

This is just the media trying to get clicks. Ignore it.

• OddsShark - Cowboys are the favorite to win the NFCE.
• VegasInsider - Cowboys are 12/1 odds to win Superbowl 50. The Eagles are 25/1
• 247Sports - Cowboys are the NFCE favorites to win Superbowl 50.

Don't feed the trolls.

 

[Nav22]

This opinion is based on the laughably long odds that Sam Bradford will 1) stay healthy all season, 2) Bradford will IMMEDIATELY start playing at the "high level" he played at in 2013 before blowing out his knee in 2014, and 3) there will be zero learning curve for Bradford as he transitions to a new team and new offense.

On the other hand, we all know that a speedy, up-tempo offense in which the QB is running to the LOS the moment a play ends is JUST THE TICKET for an immobile QB coming off a torn ACL!

 

[bonafidebanter]

The Iggles will be battling for last place in the division. Knock it off ESPN.

 

[landroverking]

Surprised they didn't pick the Eagles to win another Super Bowl. Oh wait they haven't won the first one yet!

 

[ActualCowboysFan]

so dallas is an underdog? ok. gotcha.

Bradford is the answer in philly, but that is ONLY because they couldn't trade him to go up and get mariotta...please

Yes. That's a true statement. It must be because it's been echoed by every Eagles fan out there.

 

[PhillyCowboysFan]

Could happen.

It could. We also could win the Super Bowl. We will see!

 

[links18]

Meh, this is good for us. I hope to see more articles like this.

 

[Craig]

Everyone is out to get the Cowboys!!!!

 

[coult44]

I thought we would have to deal with being favorites this year. So glad we don't. Everyone out there is giving our guys reasons to have and play with big chips.

 

[ufcrules1]

I don't buy the thesis of the article. It clear to me that the Cowboys, on paper, on the clearly superior team.

Having said that, the 3 headed monster of Murray / Matthews / Sproles is pretty darn good.

Agreed, on paper we are there better team but the recipe to our success last year was clearly our run game. Our backs are now jokes, if our backfield stays that way and we have to rely more on Romo, that could weaken us big time.

 

[Staubacher]

Love any analysis that portrays Bradford as a lethal weapon and Romo as a guy who you need to keep the football away from.

 

[xvendettax914]

Love any analysis that portrays Bradford as a lethal weapon and Romo as a guy who you need to keep the football away from.

This. Also who came into last season singing the tune of Demarco Murray for 1800? He was as big of a question mark as the backs we have now. It's not logical, in my opinion, to write these backs off especially randle, who has capitalized on his opportunities for the most part. Keep faith in the line and let them do what they do, might be surprised.

 

[jobberone]

Opinions by the SWAG method abound this time of year and are all over the place. Two teams from each conference generally don't make the playoffs the next year. One or two of the odds on favorites do make the conference finals but generally one. It's a crap shoot.

Most of the money is on the Boys to win the East and have a good chance of playing in the CC game. Philly isn't one but you never know. Right now I think I'd put the Giants behind the Boys.

But I'm using the SWAG method as well so I don't take my guess any more important than anyone else.

 

[locked&loaded]

I think most Cowboys fans think the giants will be better than the eagles this year.

 

[DandyDon52]

Sam Bradford is a vast improvement at quarterback

Bradford's injury woes seemed to have caused many to forget just how superb he has played at times during his NFL career. In 2013 (his last season under center in St. Louis), Bradford ranked sixth in the league in vertical yards per attempt (a gauge of passing production on passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and fifth in stretch vertical yards per attempt (a production measurement for aerials thrown 20 or more yards downfield).

Keep in mind that Bradford posted these superb downfield totals while throwing to a pedestrian wide receiver corps that included Tavon Austin, Austin Pettis,Chris Givens and Brian Quick to go along with a tight end tandem of Jared Cookand Lance Kendricks. The Eagles' pass-catchers are every bit as good as this group and arguably even better, so Bradford should be able to replicate his top-level production here.

Bradford should also provide a significant upgrade in the bad decision rate (BDR) area. BDR is a statistic that tracks how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team. Upper-tier passers will end the season with a BDR of one percent or less. Average quarterbacks will post a BDR between one to two percent, while mediocre field generals will rack up a BDR of two percent or higher.

Bradford did a superb job in BDR in 2013 (0.7 percent) and had a solid showing in 2012 (1.7 percent). As long as he stays anywhere near either of these levels, it will be much better than the BDR rates posted last season by Nick Foles or Mark Sanchez, who both posted a 2.6 percent BDR in 2014. This should help to cut down the Eagles league-high 21 interceptions last season.

The makings of the best rushing attack in the NFL
The ground game is the key element in Kelly's offense, and the metrics show the Eagles could field one of the top rushing attacks in the league this year.

It starts with blocking. Last season the Eagles fared quite well in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric. GBR measures how often an offense gives its ball carriers good blocking (very roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt) and the Eagles' 40.5 percent mark here ranked third.

That Philadelphia was able to do this despite using seven different offensive line combinations last season speaks volumes for just how well Kelly's system can keep the ball moving on the ground even in less-than-perfect conditions. Better health here alone could put the Eagles into contention for the top GBR spot.

Philadelphia won't lack for running backs who can make the most of quality blocking. DeMarco Murray's 8.9-yard good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) total ranked tied for 11th, but more importantly, he did this on a league-leading 160 rushing plays with good blocking. It shows Murray is capable of posting quality production over the course of an entire season.

Add to that Ryan Mathews, whose 9.9 GBYPA would have ranked tied for second had he posted enough carries to be listed as a qualifier, and Darren Sproles (11.0 GBYPA last season) and the Eagles have the caliber of talent that can direct this team to the league lead in rushing yards.


The makings of the best rushing attack in the NFL
The ground game is the key element in Kelly's offense, and the metrics show the Eagles could field one of the top rushing attacks in the league this year.

It starts with blocking. Last season the Eagles fared quite well in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric. GBR measures how often an offense gives its ball carriers good blocking (very roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt) and the Eagles' 40.5 percent mark here ranked third.

That Philadelphia was able to do this despite using seven different offensive line combinations last season speaks volumes for just how well Kelly's system can keep the ball moving on the ground even in less-than-perfect conditions. Better health here alone could put the Eagles into contention for the top GBR spot.

Philadelphia won't lack for running backs who can make the most of quality blocking. DeMarco Murray's 8.9-yard good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) total ranked tied for 11th, but more importantly, he did this on a league-leading 160 rushing plays with good blocking. It shows Murray is capable of posting quality production over the course of an entire season.

Add to that Ryan Mathews, whose 9.9 GBYPA would have ranked tied for second had he posted enough carries to be listed as a qualifier, and Darren Sproles (11.0 GBYPA last season) and the Eagles have the caliber of talent that can direct this team to the league lead in rushing yards.


Pass defense should be much improved

...


Dallas will not be able to lean on the rushing game as much this season

The Cowboys' prowess in running the ball helped them lead the league in time of possession (32 minutes, 50 seconds per game) and rank next to last in pass attempts (476). This ability had the triple positive side effect of wearing opposing defenses down, protecting their own defense and limiting the number of times Tony Romo could get hit or potentially hurt his team with risky throws.

Two items are likely to cause that formula to not be quite as successful this season.

The first is the personnel changes at running back. With Murray now in Philadelphia, the Cowboys' backfield consists of Darren McFadden, Joseph Randle, Lance Dunbar and Ryan Williams.

McFadden is coming off of a season where he played 16 games for the first time in his career but he also tallied a meager 6.9 GBYPA that ranked tied for 36th in that category. Sub-par production is not an anomaly for McFadden, as he ranks next to last in yards per carry over the past three seasons (3.3).

If McFadden can't shoulder the burden, the Cowboys will call on Randle, Dunbar and Williams, a trio that has a combined 243 career rushing attempts, to take this ground game to the heights Murray took it to last year. It's possible Dallas will find another running back between now and the beginning of the season, but as things stand today, they don't have any backs who have a proven history of top-quality production on a high volume of carries.

Compounding that issue is item two, which is a Cowboys pass defense that will be greatly tested by a very difficult slate of wide receiver matchups. Pass-catchers on this list include Odell Beckham Jr. and DeSean Jackson (two games each) along with Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, Jarvis Landry,DeVante Parker, Kelvin Benjamin, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Brandon Marshall and Sammy Watkins.

Add in tough tight end matchups against Seattle (Jimmy Graham) and New England (Rob Gronkowski) and it looks all but certain Dallas may end up in more shootouts this season than it was last year.

These two issues will not bode well for the Cowboys leaning on the ground game as much as they did in 2014 and will help close the gap for the Eagles.

Bottom line

Kelly's system has been successful thus far with less-than-perfect fits in many personnel areas, especially at quarterback. As long as the Eagles keep Bradford healthy (they ranked first in ESPN Stats & Information's pass protection metric in 2013), they will finally be able to fully implement Kelly's program. That will pay off with Philadelphia's second NFC East title in three years.

_________
the part about the cowboys is ok, and the eagles culd have a good run game but if bradford limping now, he should not try to play at start of season.
maybe later in season, but really should take the season off so that his knee will heal up good.
if he goes to soon, he could tear it again.

They should just go with sanchez and tebow and run a lot.

Now why they would say philly will win the east I dont get that, but it is a good thing. Dallas is better off not being the favorite.

 

[Doc50]

Agreed, on paper we are there better team but the recipe to our success last year was clearly our run game. Our backs are now jokes, if our backfield stays that way and we have to rely more on Romo, that could weaken us big time.

The jokes will stop when the yards start piling up.

 

[ActualCowboysFan]

Last year Joyner used his fancy stats to prove that the Cowboys would win 5 games. I wonder who he picked to take the division?

 

[Swanny]

I asked my softball team who they would rather have at QB and all 10 guys including myself said they would rather have Foles over Bradford. None of us are "experts" though like the writer of this article

 

[Oh_Canada]

I actually prefer the Cowboys as an underdog, so keep it up ESPukeN.

 

[Aven8]

I think people might be sleeping a little too much on the skins and Gmen. The skins reloaded there Dline and brought in the top guard in the draft, with the addition of Cally, who has been successful at every stop he's made in the NFL. Morris is no chump. They also have nice WR group, if they can finally settle in at QB.

While the Gmen have a talented WR core, don't overlook bringing back Spagnuolo.