ESPN KC Joyner Chat Wrap... 4 Romo blurbs

[WoodysGirl]

KC Joyner: Good afternoon! Let's get this thing rolling!


Jim (Pullman, WA): Regarding Philip Rivers and the blitz: under his "splits" on ESPN.com there is a category of passing stats called versus the blitz. These stats say he had QB ratin of 105, 10 TD, 2 int versus the blitz last year. How come these numbers do not jive with your observations on how he did versus the blitz?

KC Joyner: Jim, the metrics in my article were for a five game stretch late in the season.


Dee (Greenville, NC): Once again I don't understand your Philip Rivers assessment. How in the world can you justify calling Rivers overrated and then call Romo underrated in the same article when both lost their opening playoff games and both went to the Pro Bowl when Rivers finished 14-2 in a tougher conference with a tougher division? You really don't like Rivers do you?

KC Joyner: Dee, look at it this way. Rivers starts out OK, then does really well for a period of about 6-7 weeks, and then does poorly for most of the rest of the year. Romo does well for about the same amount of time and then goes south. Rivers is said to be a great QB and is Pro Bowl player while Romo is thrown under the bus as a failure. That's what doesn't make sense to me about how they are compared.


Matt (Little Rock): Vince Young was notably absent from the latest overrated list. As the 30th ranked passer and possessing a horrible completion percentage, I would think his reputation as the Second Coming qualifies him to LEAD the list.

KC Joyner: Matt, I didn't see Young as being overrated because a lot of people are predicting a sophomore slump for Young and the Titans.


Matt (Buffalo, NY): You wrote about JP Losman's deep ball in your QB article. Did you see any progress in his short/intermediate metrics as the season went on?

KC Joyner: Losman's short/medium metrics were rather shaky, especially his bad decision percentages. The Bills really just need to let him chuck it downfield more often.


Scott (Newbury Park, CA): Hey KC! What can you tell me about Troy Williamson's alledged eye problem? Was this real? If the problem has been corrected, can he now become the star the Vikings drafted him to be?

KC Joyner: Williamson's eye/production issue was something I decided to take a look at in Scientific Football 2007. Williamson did terrible on deep passes but he did very well on crossing routes. He could produce on some plays while he was running and catching but not on deep ones. I'm not sold that the eye issue was the only reason his deep numbers were abysmal.


Corey Webster: (Albany, New York): The Giants seem to have faith in me that I will come back and play well in the new defensive system. Did my metrics prove any of this from last year?

KC Joyner: Your metrics last year weren't that good, either in success percentage or YPA. I see Webster as being one bad season away from being declared a bust.


Mike (Boise): I'm rollin' with Nolan!!!! What impact do you see Vernon Davis having in Alex Smith's development? Is he going to be able to open up the deep game for Lelie and Jason Hill?

KC Joyner: Davis went through some rookie blues last year. He didn't seem entirely in synch with the offense and looked lost at times. He's got some things to prove this year.


Mikey(Bethlaham Park,NY): KC, I am really impreesed with the metrics for JP Losman for last season? Those numbers should only get better? Maybe he will start earning some more respect from the other sports writers one of these days? Hey, Numbers dont lie! Right KC.

KC Joyner: Mikey, if only Losman didn't have to throw short and medium passes, he'd be the best QB in the league.


JOHN (RICHMOND, VA) : What has Kevin Gilbride done in the off season to keep Eli Manning from throwing off his backfoot? I saw too many hail mary 3rd down throws made like that last year. Are there any plans whatsoever to bring in some competent replacement if he can not correct this issue?

KC Joyner: John, I'm a bit lost as to whether you mean a competent replacement for Eli or for Gilbride!


Ben (Atlanta): KC, obviously we Falcon fans are bracing ourselves for a long season with Harrington at the helm. I do remember that he had a pretty decent stretch with the Dolphins last season, were his metrics respectable?

KC Joyner: Ben, Harrington did well at times but his overall metrics were really bad. Low success percentage, low YPA, mediocre bad decision percentage. And all of that despite the Dolphins doing everything they could to tailor the system around him. It could be a long year for the Falcons in 2007.


Dee (Greenville, NC): I'm curious to see what factors into your formula for giving QB's a Blitz rating? I hope you didn't forget to factor in the Oline's ability to pick up the blitz, the time the QB actually has to get rid of the ball, and the ability of the receivers to recognize and hot route to adjust to blitz.

KC Joyner: Dee, when it came to the blitz, I tracked simply whether or not the defense blitzed. Some QBs get jittery even if a blitz is picked up. I got some sense of that from Rivers last year. Let me clearly state that I think Rivers will make some improvements this year. I just am not ready to anoint him the next great QB based on half a season's worth of good games on his part.


Jim (Pullman, WA): KC: the season isn't only 5 games. Over the course of the ENTIRE season, Rivers stats versus the blitz (according to ESPN/Stats Inc splits) are better than Tom Bradys.

KC Joyner: Jim, I don't know how else to say this. When the Chargers visited Kansas City, the Chiefs started blitzing Rivers early and often and it rattled him. That trend continued for weeks. Someone found a weakness in his game and he still hasn't corrected it. Maybe he will this year but I want to see it happen, not just assume that it will or ignore that it is an issue.


Scott (Newbury Park, CA): "if only Losman didn't have to throw short and medium passes, he'd be the best QB in the league" Heh!!! Yeah, and then he'd be getting blitzed and pinned every time he dropped back 3 steps or more! Its amazing what a good (and motivated, i.e. NOT McGahee) running game can do for short and medium passing accuracy! For his sake, I hope Lynch is the answer...

KC Joyner: You do know the question was rhetorical, right Scott?!


Justin (Queens, NY): Finally some respect for Pennington! People don't seem to realize you don't need a canon for an arm to win football games. Do you think his metrics improve this year (another removed from surgery)? Thanks KC.

KC Joyner: Justin, just an FYI that I ran a more complete study of Pennington's route metrics in Scientific Football 2007. By the way, I just got word that SF 2007 will start shipping out next week. Check out thefootballscientist.com for more details (only website plug of the chat!).


Dan (CT): Would you want Pennington in any non-West Coast offense?

KC Joyner: Dan, even with his success on the longer routes, I probably still wouldn't want Pennington in a vertically based attack like, say, the Raiders.


Nick (Orlando): KC - in light of your most recent article, can you tell us who your top five QBs were from last year, according to your metrics?

KC Joyner: Nick, I would say that the three best QBs from a metrics standpoint last year were: Romo, Brady and McNabb. After that it starts to get a bit crowded.


Brian (san diego): KC, for some reason "experts" and bunco fans everywhere are predicting Jay Cutler's numbers to take off. Last time I checked he went 2-3 in the five games he started, one of which was the last game of the year at home against the 49ers that would have sent them to the playoffs. And you say Rivers is inconsistent?

KC Joyner: Brian, I couldn't agree with you more on Cutler. His metrics weren't even as good as Plummer's last year. My scout eye did like some of what I saw from Cutler last year but he isn't a cinch to be a great QB just yet either. I just wish people would make QBs prove their performance before getting their bandwagons going.


Big D (Dunedin, FL): Hey KC, how do you think Fast Willie is going to do under the new offense going on in Pittsburgh?

KC Joyner: Big D, I am really excited about what the Steelers are going to be able to do this year offensively. I like their young receivers and even though I've been tough on Roethlisberger in the past, he seems to be doing everything he needs to in order to get back to being a great QB. Parker will only benefit from all of that.


Travis(WI): Really???? No Manning or Palmer in the top 3...that's hard to believe. Especially Manning!

KC Joyner: Peyton's metrics weren't quite as good as usual last year. That's not to say he had a bad year, as I was actually more impressed with him in 2006 than I was in any other season. There was less talent around him and he still found a way to make it work.


Majeed (SD): KC, How come no one has picked up Culpepper yet? Is his career finished?

KC Joyner: Majeed, the word that I have heard is that Culpepper's knee might not be back to full strength yet. That could be why teams are shying away from him.


Dan (Minneapolis): Since you studied Peyton's metrics, how does the loss of Glenn affect him and the offense in general. Peyton isn't the most mobile guy around and that is his blindside.

KC Joyner: Glenn was one of the best pass blockers in the NFL in 2007. If memory serves me correct, he only allowed three sacks and only 1 one of those was an individual effort sack. Left tackles of that caliber are hard to come by and the Colts are in a really tough spot with Glenn being out of the lineup.


Ian (Boston MA): How can you call Tony Romo underrated? All I heard for 6 straight weeks on ESPN was how great Romo is. However, I completely agree with you about Bulger!

KC Joyner: Ian, if you heard all of the pro-Romo PR early on, how could you miss all of the anti-Romo PR later? After the week 17 game against Detroit and the playoff FG snap fumble, the entire world seemed to give up on Romo. That's why he's on the underrated list.


Big D (Dunedin, FL): KC one more thing, I know that Big Ben has only had one year of playing since the accident and it was a horrible one, but do you think he is feeling better and more aware this year? Do you think he is ready to return to the pre-accident Ben?

KC Joyner: Big D, I think he'll be a bit different than the pre-accident Ben. He'll still throw the ball downfield but I am betting that his bad decision percentages will drop under Arians.


Jarrod, Baltimore: KC, Im having a heated debate with some of my Ravens friends about Steve McNair. I stated that i felt that towards the end of the year he seemed like an old QB? Do you agree? And also how did his metrics fair overall last year. Thanks and have a great day

KC Joyner: Jarrod, McNair's metrics were an improvement over the Boller/Wright combination the year before, but there was one concern: McNair had a lot of near interceptions. If those near picks turn into picks this year, the Ravens could be in a tough spot.


PaulieP (Scottsdale): Shouldn't Romo be on the same "prove something first" bandwagon? 1 average-good year does not a career make.

KC Joyner: Yes he should. The difference is that very few people are giving him the benefit of the doubt that they are giving Rivers.


Sam ( San Diego, Ca): Well I guess you will be eating your words once Rivers starts tearing up the field this year

KC Joyner: Sam, if Rivers does well this year, I'll be sure to write a "Philip Rivers is as great as advertised" article.


Sean (Boulder, CO): Yo KC! How much improvement do you see from young QB's Leinart and Cutler?

KC Joyner: I see a lot of improvement out of Leinart due to what should be a better O line. I'm not as sold on Cutler in large part because his WR corps is quite shaky.


Broad Street Brian (Late but from Philly): Man, so hard at work i almost missed the chat! Hey K.C. How come you did have Leftwich listed on the overated list? Do you just think he's not that good?

KC Joyner: Glad you could make it Brian! I didn't include Leftwich on any of the lists because he had mediocre metrics and got benched last year. It's hard to be overrated or underrated when that happens.


Randy (WYOMING): Must be a bad question or your just tired of the Wyoming guy! I feel that LT and SJack are the only for sure RBs this season. Who do you like based on auction value after these two?

KC Joyner: Randy, I'd give you that those two are the only sure things. Next on my list would be Gore.


Bo (Honlulu, HI): Howzit KC, With the signing of Donovan Darius, Mike Huff is probably going to be playing more as the nickel cornerback this year? Does his skills match with his new role? What do the metrics say?

KC Joyner: Bo, Huff's direct coverage metrics were better than his deep assist metrics, so I would expect Huff to do much better at CB than he did at S last year.


B (Minneapolis): Why would Phillip Rivers even need to "tear up the field" this year? Any coach would be stupid to not run 75% of the offense through Tomlinson. The Rivers sensitivity needs to end it's driving me insane. Every week people crying about you pointing out his very real statistical declines in certain situations. That doesn't even mean you think he's bad. LIGHTEN UP PEOPLE.

KC Joyner: B has a word for the Philip Rivers fan club!


Bryant(Philly): KC out of these 3 teams who has the best record at the end of the season....Cleveland, Detroit, or Miami?

KC Joyner: I have them all at about the 6 win mark but if I had to pick the one with the best chance to improve on that, it would be Detroit.


Dustin (Dayton, OH): Are you drinking the Ravens Kool-Aid? I just don't think they are as good as there 13-3 record. The Bengals and Steelers will better....

KC Joyner: Dustin, I am certainly not drinking the Ravens Kool-Aid. I've got them going 10-6 this year.


Tiff (California): B has to be sick of hearing how ANYONE likes their QB situation, let alone Philip Rivers, considering what they have up in Minnesota.

KC Joyner: I only posted this because it made me laugh!


Dan (Minneapolis): What do you have on Greg Jennings? I thought he looked like he had some potential until he got hurt.

KC Joyner: Dan, Jennings really only did well against poor competition. His YPA was near the bottom of the league. He's got a long ways to go to prove himself.


Bo (Honlulu, HI): KC, my friend and I are arguing about the Raiders record at the end of the year. He's the pessimist and predicting only 4 wins, I'm the optimist and am predicting an 8-8 season, what do you have them at?

KC Joyner: Bo, I've got the Raiders going 7-9. Their defense is Super Bowl caliber and their offense will improve to being at least average by year's end.


Jason Chicago: Is Chris Hope a really good safety? I know he plays next to a terrible safety in Lamont Thompson but how do his metrics compare between 2005 playing next to an all time great in Polamalu and a bum in 2006 like Thompson

KC Joyner: Jason, Hope was a very good safety last year, at least from a coverage perspective. Hope's issue in Pittsburgh was that he had to play coverage safety. In Tennessee he was moved to run safety and that is a better fit for his skill set.


Mike, Cologne: Which teams will have the worst seasons?

KC Joyner: I really don't have a good feel about Cleveland this year. New offensive system, QB controversy, incredibly tough early schedule. And their locker room was flooded with sewage recently. None of these are good omens for 2007.


Dag (DC): KC, I don't know what you are watching, but everyone is still in love with Romo. He makes the pro bowl, judges miss universe, and basically gets a free pass for everything. Stick to the objective numbers as opposed to subjective reporting on someone's reputation.

KC Joyner: Dag, let me put it in other terms. Romo is barely drawing any attention in fantasy leagues. If that doesn't say that the average fan thinks he's not very good, I don't know what does.


B (Minneapolis): It wouldn't be a typical week if people didn't harass you about Philip Rivers AND... Ed Reed. So here's an Ed Reed question. How much of his decline last year (which I do not dispute) do you think MAY have been due to the coaches TELLING him to gamble more due to misplaced overconfidence in Rolle? Any? Or is that a reach?

KC Joyner: Good point on Reed, B. Rolle's troubles were a contributing factor in Reed's decline.


brent(montana): YO K.C- whats with all the cry babys today-my god

KC Joyner: Brent, I don't know. I call a couple of quarterbacks overrated and the negative feedback is palpable!


John San Francisco, CA: What were the metrics like for Mark Roman and Keith Lewis last year? I'm not sold on Roman at all, but Lewis doesn't seem to be the man when it comes to coverage even if he energizes the D by bringin' the lumber.

KC Joyner: John, Lewis had terrific coverage metrics last year. I actually don't know why the 49ers brought in Michael Lewis. Roman metrics were exactly average.


Goose (Chicago): Tony Romo drawing little attention in fantasy leagues? Well, could you pass that message along to the ESPN bigwhigs? It would be nice not to see a segment on Tony Romo on every Sunday NFL Countdown. If it was up to them, Canton would be working on Romo's bust ofr his induction.

KC Joyner: Goose, all I can say is in the mock leagues I've seen so far, Romo is barely on the radar screens of most fans.


Big D (Dunedin, FL): Yo KC I'm back with a question for ya. So far I am loving the way Tomlin is handling the team, it sounds like he knows what he's doing. Do you think it's possible for him to lead us all the way right now, or should I be more patient with him? I'm sure he can in a couple of years but what about ASAP?

KC Joyner: D, it's a transition year for Pittsburgh this year. Let's not put Super Bowl expectations on a first year head coach now!


Dan (Minneapolis): Vin Jackson - Worth the hype? And please, don't use the name "Ph1..P R...rs" again or I'll go nuts and punch my boss. Refer to him as qb if it is necessary

KC Joyner: Dan, let's not resort to violence! I'm done with the "QB" for today. As far as Jackson goes, he played well last year but a lot of his numbers were put up against subpar competition. I'm still a bit leery of him at this point.


T(Miami): I guess, in a roundabout way, I am trying to ask how much of a role the players coaching, system, teamates, etc... play in to your evaluations?

KC Joyner: T, my take on any intangible is that it should equate to on-field performance before being given much credence.


Mike (Boise): The Niners have a successful season if...

KC Joyner: their offensive line and secondary stay healthy. They are a division contender if that happens.


Chris Montgomery, AL: KC what are your thoughts on the seahawks this year. It seems to me that the football media has pretty much swept them under the rug this off-season. Do you think they have a legitimate chance at the super bowl?

KC Joyner: Chris, the Seahawks have more than enough talent to get back to the Super Bowl. Their issues are more can they stay healthy and can they play up to that talent level on a consistent basis.


Big D (Dunedin, FL): Haha, I know I was just saying, you never know. NFL is sooooo unpredictable sometimes. I didn't mean to put the expectations on him, I was just asking what you think haha. O and what are we going to do with Timmons?? We have Harrison filling in for Porter already..

KC Joyner: D, I'm a Seminoles backer, so I like the Timmons pickup. Harrison is good but the Steelers could depth now that Porter is gone.


Wesley (Casper, WY): KC...I'm on your side most of the time, but I don't think it's completely fair to talk about Cutler and Rivers like they're in the same situation. Rivers got to sit for 2 years behind Drew "King of the Saints Renaissance" Brees. Cutler was thrown in the fire 11 games into his first season after enduring the tutelage of Jake "Left Hand from the Shadow of my Own End Zone" Plummer. Not exactly the same set of circumstances.

KC Joyner: Wesley, those are very good points!


Ian (Boston, MA): I understand the hype about the 49ers, they have had a great off-season. But why are the Cardinals receiving all the hype? What have they done? Their offensive line is still questionable, Edge hasn't had a successful season since he left the Colts, and their D is equivalent to the Rams. Why are the Rams always projected behind them in 3rd or 4th in the division?

KC Joyner: The Cards are getting a lot of attention because people have a faith in Whisenhunt and Grimm. The Rams are projected for 3rd and 4th because of their really weak defense.


Ben (Los Angeles): I don't mean to sound bitter that you're not addressing my questions (i don't mean to interrupt your dialogue with Big D), but could you please briefly address the fantasy potential in Norwood as well as Peyton without Tarik Glenn?

KC Joyner: Ben, just an FYI that I often don't see some questions because only so many of them can show up on the screen at one time. I like Norwood's fantasy potential a lot, especially with Dunn's recent injury. Peyton with Glenn could drop behind Palmer in my eyes as #1fantasy QB.


Peter TN: Who do you think is the most likely of the TN receivers to break out and have a good year? Is moulds worth the roster spot? Won't he just hinder the playing time of the new rookies?

KC Joyner: I'm glad someone brought up the Moulds signing. He's a perfect fit in Tennessee. They need a receiver of his skill set and leadership. As far as the rest of the Tennessee WRs go, I'm not sold on any of them just yet.


Joseph (Buffalo NY): You heard it here first, Buffalo is going to make the playoffs and be the saints of 2007....

KC Joyner: The Saints, eh? I'm not quite sold on that but I do have the Bills at 9-7. Well, the home front is calling so I've got to hit the road. Hope to see everyone next week!

 

[CrazyCowboy]

Leave Moxie alone--he looked very good today in practice

 

[BigDFan5]

thanks WG!

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Dag (DC): KC, I don't know what you are watching, but everyone is still in love with Romo. He makes the pro bowl, judges miss universe, and basically gets a free pass for everything.

Dag = Dan and Gibbs

 

[percyhoward]

Mikey(Bethlaham Park,NY): KC, I am really impreesed with the metrics for JP Losman for last season? Those numbers should only get better? Maybe he will start earning some more respect from the other sports writers one of these days? Hey, Numbers dont lie! Right KC.

KC Joyner: Mikey, if only Losman didn't have to throw short and medium passes, he'd be the best QB in the league.

:laugh2:

JOHN (RICHMOND, VA) : What has Kevin Gilbride done in the off season to keep Eli Manning from throwing off his backfoot? I saw too many hail mary 3rd down throws made like that last year. Are there any plans whatsoever to bring in some competent replacement if he can not correct this issue?

KC Joyner: John, I'm a bit lost as to whether you mean a competent replacement for Eli or for Gilbride!

:laugh1:

He should do stand-up.

 

[dal0789]

KC Joyner: Ian, if you heard all of the pro-Romo PR early on, how could you miss all of the anti-Romo PR later? After the week 17 game against Detroit and the playoff FG snap fumble, the entire world seemed to give up on Romo. That's why he's on the underrated list.

Romo didnt do that bad that game agianst the lions

 

[DanTanna]

Mike, Cologne: Which teams will have the worst seasons?

KC Joyner: I really don't have a good feel about Cleveland this year. New offensive system, QB controversy, incredibly tough early schedule. And their locker room was flooded with sewage recently. None of these are good omens for 2007.

Come on last place! We should be printing up McFadden's contract NOW! No hold out.