ESPN Power Index: 2024 projection, Super chances (Cowboys rank 4th, behind 49ers, Chiefs and Lions)

[Hawkeye0202]

My goodness........talking about wide-margin, this projection vs Cowboy fans (LOL)

• Is our talent level much better than Cowboy fans wanna believe?
• Is it possible the lack of free agent signings ( participation) won't have as much neg impact as many believe?

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...-projections-super-bowl-chances-playoff-draft

NFL Football Power Index: 2024 projections, Super Bowl chances​

The San Francisco 49ers might have lost Super Bowl LVIII to the Kansas City Chiefs, but they enter 2024 as the best team in football and favorites to win Super Bowl LIX, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). The 49ers' edge in quality over the Baltimore Ravens and Chiefs is narrow, but because San Francisco plays in the weaker NFC, its championship chances (16%) are notably higher than any other club's.

The Football Power Index is our ratings and projection model for NFL teams. In the preseason, the model's overall predictive ratings are based primarily on win totals from ESPN BET in conjunction with each team's schedule -- along with factors such as the strength difference between a team's starting and backup quarterback and a revamped special teams rating based primarily on new predictive kicker ratings. We use these team ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, creating our projections.

During the season, ratings evolve based on how teams perform on offense, defense and special teams -- along with quarterback performance and changes. In addition to updated ratings, game predictions are also affected by home-field advantage and rest differentials.

Let's dive into the 2024 season.........

 

[Fastpitch Dad]

My goodness........talking about wide-margin, this projection vs Cowboy fans (LOL)

• Is our talent level much better than Cowboy fans wanna believe?
• Is it possible the lack of free agent signings ( participation) won't have as much neg impact as many believe?

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...-projections-super-bowl-chances-playoff-draft

NFL Football Power Index: 2024 projections, Super Bowl chances​

The San Francisco 49ers might have lost Super Bowl LVIII to the Kansas City Chiefs, but they enter 2024 as the best team in football and favorites to win Super Bowl LIX, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). The 49ers' edge in quality over the Baltimore Ravens and Chiefs is narrow, but because San Francisco plays in the weaker NFC, its championship chances (16%) are notably higher than any other club's.

The Football Power Index is our ratings and projection model for NFL teams. In the preseason, the model's overall predictive ratings are based primarily on win totals from ESPN BET in conjunction with each team's schedule -- along with factors such as the strength difference between a team's starting and backup quarterback and a revamped special teams rating based primarily on new predictive kicker ratings. We use these team ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, creating our projections.

During the season, ratings evolve based on how teams perform on offense, defense and special teams -- along with quarterback performance and changes. In addition to updated ratings, game predictions are also affected by home-field advantage and rest differentials.

Let's dive into the 2024 season.........

They can use all their fancy "indexes' that they can come up with, but the Cowboys as of right now sure do not pass the eye test for me. We have to have a whole lotta things go our way to end up being that good. I don't see it, but I hope I'm wrong.

Thanks as always for sharing articles!

 

[Hawkeye0202]

They can use all their fancy "indexes' that they can come up with, but the Cowboys as of right now sure do not pass the eye test for me. We have to have a whole lotta things go our way to end up being that good. I don't see it, but I hope I'm wrong.

Thanks as always for sharing articles!

Keep in mind, that I think this uses regular season stats/factors and if we are being honest, we were damn good DURING THE REGULAR SEASON.

 

[big dog cowboy]

• Is our talent level much better than Cowboy fans wanna believe?
• Is it possible the lack of free agent signings ( participation) won't have as much neg impact as many believe?

Yes
Yes

 

[JBS]

We are better than a lot of people in here want to admit

Free agency won’t have a negative impact to the extent many believe.

We are not the 4th best team in the nfl. We are closer to 7 or 8. ESPN is clueless - Vegas odds are a bit more accurate.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

We are better than a lot of people in here want to admit

Free agency won’t have a negative impact to the extent many believe.

We are not the 4th best team in the nfl. We are closer to 6 or 7. ESPN is clueless - Vegas odds are a bit more accurate.

Agree

 

[Cowboys5217]

We are better than a lot of people in here want to admit

Free agency won’t have a negative impact to the extent many believe.

We are not the 4th best team in the nfl. We are closer to 7 or 8. ESPN is clueless - Vegas odds are a bit more accurate.

A lot of you have somehow convinced yourselves that this year is different, just like any other of the last 28 years. It isn't.

Any season of the JonesBoys being in charge is doomed to failure. With no change at GM expect no change in the status quo.

Our biggest problems last year were running the ball and stopping the run. Neither are was given much attention. If anything, they have regressed in both areas with a lack of Free Agency activity. It will have a negative impact as soon as that first game against Cleveland.

Lots of whistling past a very familiar graveyard.

 

[12+88=7]

On BloggingtheBoys they had an article rating NFL rosters from PFF and Dallas was 9th.

SF, Detroit, and Philadelphia were ahead of Dallas in the NFC. Philadelphia was 8th.

Outside entities always believe Dallas is better than what the fanbase thinks.

 

[Blitzen]

My goodness........talking about wide-margin, this projection vs Cowboy fans (LOL)

• Is our talent level much better than Cowboy fans wanna believe?
• Is it possible the lack of free agent signings ( participation) won't have as much neg impact as many believe?

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...-projections-super-bowl-chances-playoff-draft

NFL Football Power Index: 2024 projections, Super Bowl chances​

The San Francisco 49ers might have lost Super Bowl LVIII to the Kansas City Chiefs, but they enter 2024 as the best team in football and favorites to win Super Bowl LIX, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). The 49ers' edge in quality over the Baltimore Ravens and Chiefs is narrow, but because San Francisco plays in the weaker NFC, its championship chances (16%) are notably higher than any other club's.

The Football Power Index is our ratings and projection model for NFL teams. In the preseason, the model's overall predictive ratings are based primarily on win totals from ESPN BET in conjunction with each team's schedule -- along with factors such as the strength difference between a team's starting and backup quarterback and a revamped special teams rating based primarily on new predictive kicker ratings. We use these team ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, creating our projections.

During the season, ratings evolve based on how teams perform on offense, defense and special teams -- along with quarterback performance and changes. In addition to updated ratings, game predictions are also affected by home-field advantage and rest differentials.

Let's dive into the 2024 season.........

The 2023 one had the Jets, Chargers, and Bengals ahead of the Ravens who were the 10th ranked team. Browns were 17th, Steelers 19th, Packers 25, Bucs 30, and Texans 32. Predicting the future season entirely based on regular season success (even recent)-seems laughable. We won’t have a good idea where the team is compared to the rest of the league till late November.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

Outside entities always believe Dallas is better than what the fanbase thinks.

This is true.....100%

 

[JBS]

A lot of you have somehow convinced yourselves that this year is different, just like any other of the last 28 years. It isn't.

Any season of the JonesBoys being in charge is doomed to failure. With no change at GM expect no change in the status quo.

Our biggest problems last year were running the ball and stopping the run. Neither are was given much attention. If anything, they have regressed in both areas with a lack of Free Agency activity. It will have a negative impact as soon as that first game against Cleveland.

Lots of whistling past a very familiar graveyard.

Grouping me in w the wrong people. This team has no chance to do anything this season. Not sure what you have misconstrued here.

 

[Risen Star]

4th? We are hugely overrated.

 

[SultanOfSix]

They always overrate the team. So when they fail to live up to their expectations, the haters can either mock them or say I told you so. And then they’re like “did we overrate them?”

 

[Streifenkarl]

Keep in mind, that I think this uses regular season stats/factors and if we are being honest, we were damn good DURING THE REGULAR SEASON.

Yes we were. Doesn't mean anything though.

 

[Vtwin]

They've been picked as top SB contenders each of the last three pre-seasons.

And here we are.

 

[fivetwos]

The Cowboys are a very good team, and as long as the rest of the league agrees to not attack the middle of our defense with the run, we have a real chance.

 

[Carson]

They've been picked as top SB contenders each of the last three pre-seasons.

And here we are.

They were 6th last year, 9th the year before that and 11th before that. So that seems around what it should be

 

[Vtwin]

They were 6th last year, 9th the year before that and 11th before that. So that seems around what it should be

My bad.
I was more referencing the entirety of all the expert prognostications and not just this one.

I did put about as much stock in those as I do this one.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

They can use all their fancy "indexes' that they can come up with, but the Cowboys as of right now sure do not pass the eye test for me. We have to have a whole lotta things go our way to end up being that good. I don't see it, but I hope I'm wrong.

Thanks as always for sharing articles!

Eye test? They haven’t even played a game yet what eye test should they be passing lol?

 

[Flamma]

• Is our talent level much better than Cowboy fans wanna believe?
• Is it possible the lack of free agent signings ( participation) won't have as much neg impact as many believe?

Even if the answer to those two questions is yes, not having a negative impact doesn't make it positive. They did nothing to get better results, so don't expect better results.