Final 53 prediction by Cowboys Wire

[davey999]

Hunter Luepke and Rico Dowdle? Yikes

 

[_sturt_]

Pretty good attempt.
What do they have wrong???

Final Roster Prediction Article

1a. Malik Davis is the #2 going into camp by default. He also happens to be the back that most replicates Pollard, which in the case of an injury, is valuable. While none of the RB candidates can feel secure, of the group, he has a leg-up (weak pun intended) on his competition... a veteran UDFA whose playing time he's already exceeded by quite a bit, and a late round rookie whose likelihood of securing a roster slot probably has more to-do with whether Turpin has a disappointing camp while he enjoys a glowing one.

1b. UDFA Hunter Luepke is miscast here. If he makes the final roster, he makes it over a 4th TE making it... McKeon or Fant. Whoever it is, seems certain he's going to be more of an H-back than a pure TE or FB.

That said, I believe history suggests that highest paid UDFAs tend to make the final roster. Per OverTheCap.com, ours are Luepke (180k), Tyrus Wheat (180k), and Earl Bostick (200k).

1c. Put me in the silly camp if you want, but I'm among those who still believe the #2 back isn't yet signed... so, you're gonna have the same three as last season, except last season's #1 is getting about 30-40% of the carries, while Pollard gets 60-70% assuming perfect health for both (which has been an irrefutable issue, of course, and which should give Davis and Vaughn some hope to see the field).


2. I'm skeptical on Matt Waletzko. As far as I've been able to discern, the entirety of the confidence in him has rested on a single mention by McC in an early OTA presser where he said one positive thing. One. That feels to me like DC beat writers overreaching. To the contrary, this and Josh Ball's situation 12 months ago are almost exactly the same. Until we actually have some stronger evidence than one positive remark in early OTAs, vis-a-vis by virtue of preseason games performance, I'm leaving Waletzko in the same pool with all the others who might be could be but aren't yet serious threats to make the 53.

And. Of those in that pool, don't sleep on the fact that the UDFA they wanted most (by virtue of bonus) was Bostick. He's got stiff competition, and maybe they see him more as a long-term development solution. But I believe someone said that Bostick and Richards both had 5th round grades by scouts... can't recall for certain if it was specified that those were Cowboys' scouts cited, but I think so.


3. I'd label Dante Fowler's status as something more tenuous than "Pretty Sure He Makes It." He really could be in a dog fight (potential $2m cap savings) with competition from a highest-paid UDFA Wheat, and also possibly from someone they've listed here as a "Pretty Sure He Makes It' LB, the "Sack King" of the HBCUs, Isaiah Land. Land may be a little light to be considered an "edge," but any of the three that make it will earn that as a consequence of their pass rushing. While Fowler might have some Dan Quinn affection going for him, I'd call it "Pretty Sure He Makes It... As Long As... His Camp Is A Full Notch Ahead of Wheat and Land."


4. Devin Harper will make the 53 as a special teams-first LB, unless Land would prove to be a special teams option.


5. If they keep a 6th CB at all (probably, but less than certain), Kelvin Joseph is going to have to fight Nahshon Wright for that, as well as Eric Scott who must continue to prove that the optimism coming out of OTAs was justified. The practice squad will get one, and maybe two of those.

 

[Kingofholland]

I was surprised they had RJ as a cut. I thought he would be the starter if Pollard went down.

Will be fun to see how it shakes out!

Yeah I think he'll get every opportunity to win it and unless he struggles in practice or the preseason. I think at the moment it's his job to lose. Doesn't mean others have greater upside.

 

[Carson]

Yeah I think he'll get every opportunity to win it and unless he struggles in practice or the preseason. I think at the moment it's his job to lose. Doesn't mean others have greater upside.

I like what RJ offers opposite of TP / Davis / Deuce.

I feel like he is more of a road grader big body type who we hand it to in the 4th quarter.

I like keeping him around.

He brings two Super Bowl rings, Gilmore brings 1 and Cooks has been to the dance. So lots of vets.

 

[jazzcat22]

Not bad at all. I have some slight differences. Of course it will change every week, as players have good or bad practices.

 

[stilltheguru]

Nothing is wrong until preseason starts. But if Joseph doesn't show out vs 2nd and 3rd stringers I'd cut him no matter what.

 

[_sturt_]

I was surprised they had RJ as a cut.

25 year old Ronald Jones (17 carries) could not beat out a 30 year old RB (McKinnon, 72 carries) for the #3 slot on the KC depth chart last season.

And, to my knowledge, he doesn't even have the excuse of having some injury slowing him down.

I look at him as the quintessential "Let's take a flier on him" signing.

 

[Stash]

The only thing I have an issue with is this:

“Something tells me Dowdle makes the most of his final opportunity and realize the potential he’s had masked by a litany of injuries.”

Something tells me, no.

I’ll take Malik Davis or an outside running back over Dowdle. His time has run out.

 

[Kingofholland]

I like what RJ offers opposite of TP / Davis / Deuce.

I feel like he is more of a road grader big body type who we hand it to in the 4th quarter.

I like keeping him around.

He brings two Super Bowl rings, Gilmore brings 1 and Cooks has been to the dance. So lots of vets.

Yes very different kind of runner compared to the other guys. The Cowboys targeted him fairly early in the offseason so he's here for a reason. Lot of people are discounting him because he didn't play much for the Chiefs. No guarantee he makes the team but think it's his job to lose.

 

[Pass2Run]

I think Rojo makes the team. Still hoping JMC makes it. I don't think he'll survive on our PS.

 

[Bigtex67]

Supposedly he has it figured out now.

Not a shot at you Big Dog!

We hear this about almost every fringe player each year!

....figured it out....best shape of his life.......rinse and repeat......

 

[BlindFaith]

25 year old Ronald Jones (17 carries) could not beat out a 30 year old RB (McKinnon, 72 carries) for the #3 slot on the KC depth chart last season.

And, to my knowledge, he doesn't even have the excuse of having some injury slowing him down.

I look at him as the quintessential "Let's take a flier on him" signing.

Thats just not true.

He had an incentive laden deal with KC. Potential to make 5 mil. They went with the younger, cheaper guys and kept RJ on the bench to save money. Thats why he wanted to be traded.

He is very similar to Pollard. Not as quick, but a great receiver and has breakaway speed. Similar in size. He has produced in this league. Plus hes coming home to Texas.

He and Davis will be in a dog fight for #2. Davis also plays special teams.

#1 Pollard
#2 RJ
#3 Davis

#4 RB/#4 TE Hunter

 

[_sturt_]

Thats just not true.

He had an incentive laden deal with KC. Potential to make 5 mil. They went with the younger, cheaper guys and kept RJ on the bench to save money.

Well, no it is true, though kudos to you for looking into that aspect.

He did have an incentive laden deal. He did have the potential to make $5m.

But no... for reasons you'd have to have investigated more closely to have discovered, they did not "keep him on the bench to save money." See the part about "NLTBE" below, please.

(And you're to be forgiven for not looking into it deeper... not something you'd be inclined to do, I'm sure, since you have the conclusion you prefer to embrace.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2022...ing-back-ronald-jones-is-better-than-expected

(Apologies for the image pixelation, but it's the best I could do. Encourage visiting the link.)

So, no. The original assertion is spot-on. It is correct to understand RJ's stay in KC as terribly disappointing, and cause for believing he's got some provin' to do in Oxnard if he's going to be a significant threat for #2 or even #3 on the depth chart.

Not impossible. But there are better bets.

 

[DuncanIso]

25 year old Ronald Jones (17 carries) could not beat out a 30 year old RB (McKinnon, 72 carries) for the #3 slot on the KC depth chart last season.

And, to my knowledge, he doesn't even have the excuse of having some injury slowing him down.

I look at him as the quintessential "Let's take a flier on him" signing.

RJones has more rushing TDs than Tony.

 

[BlindFaith]

Well, no it is true, though kudos to you for looking into that aspect.

He did have an incentive laden deal. He did have the potential to make $5m.

But no... for reasons you'd have to have investigated more closely to have discovered, they did not "keep him on the bench to save money." See the part about "NLTBE" below, please.

(And you're to be forgiven for not looking into it deeper... not something you'd be inclined to do, I'm sure, since you have the conclusion you prefer to embrace.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2022...ing-back-ronald-jones-is-better-than-expected

(Apologies for the image pixelation, but it's the best I could do. Encourage visiting the link.)

So, no. The original assertion is spot-on. It is correct to understand RJ's stay in KC as terribly disappointing, and cause for believing he's got some provin' to do in Oxnard if he's going to be a significant threat for #2 or even #3 on the depth chart.

Not impossible. But there are better bets.

NLTBE incentives are related to how you can manipulate the cap.

If he played and hit those numbers, he still would have gotten the full 5mil and that 3.5 would hit this years cap instead of last years.

They gave him no chance to earn those incentives. He wanted to be traded.

 

[_sturt_]

and that 3.5 would hit this years cap instead of last years.

Exactly.

Same thing said differently, he was never going to make more than a few hundred thousand dollars more than the 30 year-old, yet the 30 year-old got about 4x as many carries.

That lipstick ain't doin your pig much good, my friend.

 

[quickccc]

1a. Malik Davis is the #2 going into camp by default. He also happens to be the back that most replicates Pollard, which in the case of an injury, is valuable. While none of the RB candidates can feel secure, of the group, he has a leg-up (weak pun intended) on his competition... a veteran UDFA whose playing time he's already exceeded by quite a bit, and a late round rookie whose likelihood of securing a roster slot probably has more to-do with whether Turpin has a disappointing camp while he enjoys a glowing one.

1b. UDFA Hunter Luepke is miscast here. If he makes the final roster, he makes it over a 4th TE making it... McKeon or Fant. Whoever it is, seems certain he's going to be more of an H-back than a pure TE or FB.

That said, I believe history suggests that highest paid UDFAs tend to make the final roster. Per OverTheCap.com, ours are Luepke (180k), Tyrus Wheat (180k), and Earl Bostick (200k).

1c. Put me in the silly camp if you want, but I'm among those who still believe the #2 back isn't yet signed... so, you're gonna have the same three as last season, except last season's #1 is getting about 30-40% of the carries, while Pollard gets 60-70% assuming perfect health for both (which has been an irrefutable issue, of course, and which should give Davis and Vaughn some hope to see the field).

Thanks for Sharing ,, you make a lot of good points.

Watch closely who is getting the reps in this entire summer among the RBs , .. i’ve seen Deuce and Malik thus far so early, has anyone yet seen
or heard off from vet Ronald Jones ? Stay tuned.

- Malik Davis is the actual returning vet, Deuce and Ronald and even Hunter are newcomers

- Why did the Cowboys feel they had to sign Ron Jones before the OTA’s, instead of waiting on the remaining street vet FAs that still remain on the street ?

- If Cowboys did not sign Jones at the time, would he still be on the street ..right now ?

- Coaches will very closely monitor how the RBs develop and respond to pressure game situations- that includes how they grade in the preseason games. (and yes, this is exactly why you still need preseason game)

- Especially now with the concern and uncertainty of rookie TE Luke Schoonmaker, i highly doubt we only keep 3 TE’s and so much is expected
with the blocking of TEs, i don’t see us cutting loose vet McKeon as the 4th TE, for the sake of Hunter Lupeke whose blocking is still questionable.

- One of the three backs of Davis, Jones, Deuce or Hunter are not gonna make it. Rico has talent but his durability just is not reliable.
That’s now been proven.
And I’d hate to cut someone that could’ve better helped us but we’re stuck with IR’ like Rico.

 

[quickccc]

2. I'm skeptical on Matt Waletzko. As far as I've been able to discern, the entirety of the confidence in him has rested on a single mention by McC in an early OTA presser where he said one positive thing. One. That feels to me like DC beat writers overreaching. To the contrary, this and Josh Ball's situation 12 months ago are almost exactly the same. Until we actually have some stronger evidence than one positive remark in early OTAs, vis-a-vis by virtue of preseason games performance, I'm leaving Waletzko in the same pool with all the others who might be could be but aren't yet serious threats to make the 53.

And. Of those in that pool, don't sleep on the fact that the UDFA they wanted most (by virtue of bonus) was Bostick. He's got stiff competition, and maybe they see him more as a long-term development solution. But I believe someone said that Bostick and Richards both had 5th round grades by scouts... can't recall for certain if it was specified that those were Cowboys' scouts cited, but I think so.


3. I'd label Dante Fowler's status as something more tenuous than "Pretty Sure He Makes It." He really could be in a dog fight (potential $2m cap savings) with competition from a highest-paid UDFA Wheat, and also possibly from someone they've listed here as a "Pretty Sure He Makes It' LB, the "Sack King" of the HBCUs, Isaiah Land. Land may be a little light to be considered an "edge," but any of the three that make it will earn that as a consequence of their pass rushing. While Fowler might have some Dan Quinn affection going for him, I'd call it "Pretty Sure He Makes It... As Long As... His Camp Is A Full Notch Ahead of Wheat and Land."


4. Devin Harper will make the 53 as a special teams-first LB, unless Land would prove to be a special teams option.


5. If they keep a 6th CB at all (probably, but less than certain), Kelvin Joseph is going to have to fight Nahshon Wright for that, as well as Eric Scott who must continue to prove that the optimism coming out of OTAs was justified. The practice squad will get one, and maybe two of those.

- By Default, Matt Wally seems to be the backup swing man behind Tyler who will swing outside to OT in event of a Tyron injury.
Now who plays “ backup OG “ when Tyler moves outside is still in question.

- Matt Wally is gonna have to show me his Iron man side and that means him staying healthy and not missing any practices cux he is hurting ailing
or under the weather.
2nd he is gonna have to perform this summer (vs the Parsons, Dlaws, Armstrongs, Williams and Fowlers)
Here’s looking at developing types like Richards or even a Bostic if Wally gets injured and out again.

- While mentioning Harper and Land,.. could there be a chance those two could beat out current disappointment Jabril Cox ?
Of course this harps upon what kind of camp Cox has.. he has to show vast improvement and response.

 

[quickccc]

1a. Malik Davis is the #2 going into camp by default. He also happens to be the back that most replicates Pollard, which in the case of an injury, is valuable. While none of the RB candidates can feel secure, of the group, he has a leg-up (weak pun intended) on his competition... a veteran UDFA whose playing time he's already exceeded by quite a bit, and a late round rookie whose likelihood of securing a roster slot probably has more to-do with whether Turpin has a disappointing camp while he enjoys a glowing one.

5. If they keep a 6th CB at all (probably, but less than certain), Kelvin Joseph is going to have to fight Nahshon Wright for that, as well as Eric Scott who must continue to prove that the optimism coming out of OTAs was justified. The practice squad will get one, and maybe two of those.

Joseph is a better special teams player than Wright ... whose gonna have to masssively show up big in both camp and preseason if he is gonna beat out KJ.
And even then Wright is gonna have to also show up big in special teams as well.

Even with a good camp, its a numbers crunch game with so many viable CBs this year that now includes rookie Eric Scott who club is apparently very high on.
I don't feel club feels the same about Wright anymore.

Turpin could disappoint at WR ,and he'd still make the team easily.
If Goodwin has such roster insurance, why would the Pro Bowler Turpin be any less ?
He's a prolific returner, and currently there is no one present to challenge him in that area, while providing promising dual role as a WR or RB ?

 

[BlindFaith]

Exactly.

Same thing said differently, he was never going to make more than a few hundred thousand dollars more than the 30 year-old, yet the 30 year-old got about 4x as many carries.

That lipstick ain't doin your pig much good, my friend.

That 30 year old was getting paid regardless. So why pay him and Jones? Bottom line is that they got a younger, cheaper guy in Pecheco and Jones was basically an insurance plan.
So they stashed him on the bench.
Im not saying Jones is an all pro. Just that his time in KC was far, far less about his talent and more about saving money.