Final trade down mock 5/3

[tm1119]

I think this draft is setup perfectly for us to trade back if Donald/Barr are not on the board at 16. For the sake of this mock I will say OBJ is still on the board which creates a minor bidding war between SF and Car for his services. Eventually Carolina feels the pressure of getting Cam a weapon and we end up with their 1st (28), 3rd (92), and 4th (128) for our 1st (16) and 7th (229)

#28- Timmy Jernigan DT FSU- I think the coaching staff really likes this player and he becomes a great value once still on the board after a sizable trade down, much like Frederick last year. Jernigan will bring a presence to the middle of our line that has been lacked for a while now. He is a mean and nasty player with the strength to dominate the LOS. He is also a better athlete than given credit for and is capable of creating a fair amount of pressure himself. Melton + Jernigan could be a scary tandem for a while in Dallas.

#47- Scott Crichton DE Oregon St- Crichton may not be the sexy pick as the undersized super quick DE, but Crichton posses a strong and well built frame and an excellent motor to go with an already developed set of pass rush moves. In my opinion he's one of the safest D lineman in this draft because he already posses an NFL body and and shows a strong understanding of the game and his position.

#78- Billy Turner OG/OT North Dakota St- Most everybody's favorite o line prospect so no need to say a whole lot here. Big with long arms, quick feet, strong frame, and has position flexibility. Only thing not to like about him is the level of competition he faced.

#92- Jordan Tripp OLB Montana- Another small school guy with a lot of potential. Tripp looks to be an ideal WIL linebacker once fully developed. He's a good athlete with range and a high motor to play sideline to sideline. All the tools are there with this kid, if patient he could pay off huge in 1-2 years.

#119- Kevin Norwood WR Alabama- Norwood has good size at 6'2 200 lbs and surprised a lot of people at the combine with how athletic he is. I see him as a classic case of a bad system fit that never showcased his talents as a vertical threat at Bama. I think he's an underrated player who could turn into a gem down the line.

#128- Ross Cockrell CB Duke- Cockrell is a very underrated player in this draft and an ideal fit as a zone CB capable of breaking on the ball and making plays (12 int's at Duke). At 6' 190 with 4.46 speed he posses all of the tools to be an outside CB in Marinelli's scheme. Provides good young depth for us going forward.

#158- Gabe Ikard C/G Oklahoma- We have 0 depth on the interior line. Ikard is an ideal fit as a zone blocking C, but is also capable of playing G. Ton of experience in a tough conference and is widely considered one of the better "RKG" in all of college football. If he continues to add strength he could develop into a useful player on the o line.

**Trade 2 7th's for a mid 6th**
#198- Morgan Breslin DE/Nickle Pass rusher USC- Undersized pass rusher, but he has a pretty impressive burst and plays with his hair on fire on every play. JUCO transfer who started at DE for Monte at USC in 2012 racking up 13 sacks and 19.5 TFL. Got hurt his senior year so his stock is down, but if he recovers with no lingering affects he could be a very useful situational pass rusher for us.

Comp Rounds
James Franklin QB Mizzu- Athletic developmental QB
Chris Whaley DT Texas- Melton 2.0?
James Wilder Jr RB FSU- Freaking huge RB, worth a shot.

 

[Macnalty]

I think this draft is setup perfectly for us to trade back if Donald/Barr are not on the board at 16. For the sake of this mock I will say OBJ is still on the board which creates a minor bidding war between SF and Car for his services. Eventually Carolina feels the pressure of getting Cam a weapon and we end up with their 1st (28), 3rd (92), and 4th (128) for our 1st (16) and 7th (229)

#28- Timmy Jernigan DT FSU- I think the coaching staff really likes this player and he becomes a great value once still on the board after a sizable trade down, much like Frederick last year. Jernigan will bring a presence to the middle of our line that has been lacked for a while now. He is a mean and nasty player with the strength to dominate the LOS. He is also a better athlete than given credit for and is capable of creating a fair amount of pressure himself. Melton + Jernigan could be a scary tandem for a while in Dallas.

#47- Scott Crichton DE Oregon St- Crichton may not be the sexy pick as the undersized super quick DE, but Crichton posses a strong and well built frame and an excellent motor to go with an already developed set of pass rush moves. In my opinion he's one of the safest D lineman in this draft because he already posses an NFL body and and shows a strong understanding of the game and his position.

#78- Billy Turner OG/OT North Dakota St- Most everybody's favorite o line prospect so no need to say a whole lot here. Big with long arms, quick feet, strong frame, and has position flexibility. Only thing not to like about him is the level of competition he faced.

#92- Jordan Tripp OLB Montana- Another small school guy with a lot of potential. Tripp looks to be an ideal WIL linebacker once fully developed. He's a good athlete with range and a high motor to play sideline to sideline. All the tools are there with this kid, if patient he could pay off huge in 1-2 years.

#119- Kevin Norwood WR Alabama- Norwood has good size at 6'2 200 lbs and surprised a lot of people at the combine with how athletic he is. I see him as a classic case of a bad system fit that never showcased his talents as a vertical threat at Bama. I think he's an underrated player who could turn into a gem down the line.

#128- Ross Cockrell CB Duke- Cockrell is a very underrated player in this draft and an ideal fit as a zone CB capable of breaking on the ball and making plays (12 int's at Duke). At 6' 190 with 4.46 speed he posses all of the tools to be an outside CB in Marinelli's scheme. Provides good young depth for us going forward.

#158- Gabe Ikard C/G Oklahoma- We have 0 depth on the interior line. Ikard is an ideal fit as a zone blocking C, but is also capable of playing G. Ton of experience in a tough conference and is widely considered one of the better "RKG" in all of college football. If he continues to add strength he could develop into a useful player on the o line.

**Trade 2 7th's for a mid 6th**
#198- Morgan Breslin DE/Nickle Pass rusher USC- Undersized pass rusher, but he has a pretty impressive burst and plays with his hair on fire on every play. JUCO transfer who started at DE for Monte at USC in 2012 racking up 13 sacks and 19.5 TFL. Got hurt his senior year so his stock is down, but if he recovers with no lingering affects he could be a very useful situational pass rusher for us.

Comp Rounds
James Franklin QB Mizzu- Athletic developmental QB
Chris Whaley DT Texas- Melton 2.0?
James Wilder Jr RB FSU- Freaking huge RB, worth a shot.

That would be a great draft you leave my course after the 5th rd, but I am totally on board with your first five picks, Norwood is going to be a very good receiver in the NFL, about rd 6 I am hoping Aaron Colvin is available and in the 7th I am taking on some risk with high ceiling players like the big WR Washington, DT Larry Webster, DE Ben Gardner, OT Cornelius Lucas and hoping the OT Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, OT, McGill falls through the cracks.

 

[Tobal]

I really like your draft. The top 4 are fantastic, I like Norwood and Cockrell pretty well. I've been mocking Bodine instead of Ikard in that area as interior backup and depth. The Wilder pick is probably the only one I don't like, but at that point I'd be drinking with Jerry anyway.

 

[tm1119]

I really like your draft. The top 4 are fantastic, I like Norwood and Cockrell pretty well. I've been mocking Bodine instead of Ikard in that area as interior backup and depth. The Wilder pick is probably the only one I don't like, but at that point I'd be drinking with Jerry anyway.

I thought of Bodine there as well. We definitely wouldn't have a problem with strength with him. Any suggestions on late round RB's if not Wilder then? I haven't done much research at that position and can see us taking a flier on 1 with a 7th/comp pick

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I think that would be a pretty solid effort.

 

[AKATheRake]

Solid yet non spectacular.

 

[Alexander]

One thing about Crichton-- he had to go back to Indianapolis for medical recheck for repeated stingers in his neck. He passed, but it is something to put in the back of your mind. If there is one area we need a reliable choice at from this draft, it is from defensive end as much as any other. I like him a lot, but that pushes him down my board just due to the risk involved.

 

[9darter]

Very good.

 

[dallasdave]

nice draft

 

[tm1119]

One thing about Crichton-- he had to go back to Indianapolis for medical recheck for repeated stingers in his neck. He passed, but it is something to put in the back of your mind. If there is one area we need a reliable choice at from this draft, it is from defensive end as much as any other. I like him a lot, but that pushes him down my board just due to the risk involved.

Good info, didn't know that. DE is hard to predict in this draft. Hard to believe who is really rising and who isn't. I'd much rather get Lawrence or Attoachu in the 2nd, but I'm not sure how realistic that is at this point.

 

[Tobal]

One thing about Crichton-- he had to go back to Indianapolis for medical recheck for repeated stingers in his neck. He passed, but it is something to put in the back of your mind. If there is one area we need a reliable choice at from this draft, it is from defensive end as much as any other. I like him a lot, but that pushes him down my board just due to the risk involved.

Thanks for that info, I considered him a really safe solid pick. That changes the perception some and I wonder if that's why we see Lawrence and Smith being talked about in the late first early 2nd areas more than Crichton now.

 

[Tobal]

I thought of Bodine there as well. We definitely wouldn't have a problem with strength with him. Any suggestions on late round RB's if not Wilder then? I haven't done much research at that position and can see us taking a flier on 1 with a 7th/comp pick

I haven't really either, the only two that I can think of that are a little bigger would be the Smith kid from Syracuse and Andrews from Western Kentucky. I think they are a little faster than Wilder and have better vision. None of those guys are gonna get to the edge, and I don't think they'd beat out our current guys. I think I'd probably go the undrafted FA at RB if I don't take one in the 1st 4 rounds or so..

 

[jterrell]

Solid draft and one that passes the smell test.
On the negative side it is very likely there is only one day 1 starter. Jernigan at the 1T
But long-term that draft should hold up quite nicely.

Turner is an interesting prospect but the board overrates him. His leaner, not very strong lower body needs to be addressed. If he is a hard gainer there he could be more Arkin than Larry Allen(small school prospects).
His strength and explosion numbers are pretty poor in the lower body.

My favorite selection: Scott Crichton. Think he is a safe pick and long-term rotational guy who steadily earns more minutes at both DE spots.

My least favorite selection: Billy Turner. Not a bad pick mind you but I like the other picks better and think Turner has the lowest ceiling versus where he is drafted. Rather go OG than OT and more game ready now since interior depth is non-existent but we have 4 quality OTs.

I do think another drop makes sense.
It LOOKS like 16 will offer CB/TE/FS/1T/LB options.
Not exactly ideal positionally so a trade chart equal value drop makes lots of sense.
I'd consider two drops and go to the mid 30's if I got plus value on the 2nd trade as teams target a QB late first.
That is what makes my mocks fit need/value the best.
I don't mean some dumper of a draft where skip the top 150 picks but one where we load up between 35 and 100.

 

[xwalker]

Solid draft and one that passes the smell test.
Turner is an interesting prospect but the board overrates him. His leaner, not very strong lower body needs to be addressed. If he is a hard gainer there he could be more Arkin than Larry Allen(small school prospects).
His strength and explosion numbers are pretty poor in the lower body.
I can't find an OT at his weight or higher that a better combination of vert and broad jump.

 

[tm1119]

Are you saying that you agree that Turner has serious strength questions?

 

[jazzcat22]

Pretty sold draft, I would take it.
1st four picks would make it a great draft by itself. The trade value is pretty much the way I see it too. Was looking at something similar few weeks ago.
Not that familiar with Norwood or Cockrell, and somewhat heard Ikard. But I like the picks, at least as far as positions.

I don't think we can get a 6th for 2 7th's, but going DE there will be good, if they can get into the 6th somehow.

For the comp picks, I would rather not get a QB here, unless you think he can be stashed on the PS. Do you really think one could beat out Weeden or Hanie, who really knows. I would rather get Millard at FB. The other players, DT & RB yes. If not a DT, then even a DB or LB or OL will be fine. Then go QB high next year.

 

[xwalker]

Are you saying that you agree that Turner has serious strength questions?

No.

This was jterrell's quote:

His strength and explosion numbers are pretty poor in the lower body.

This was my reply:

I can't find an OT at his weight or higher that had a better combination of vert and broad jump.

 

[jterrell]

your post did something odd but I think the last line is yours....

If so, that could be true, didn't check every guy's height and weight and the numbers aren;t bad as they look when taken in context.

I didn't so that's my bad. They are bad numbers overall lol, but at 315 pounds they are well above average.


I will stand by the questions about his strengh though.
Weaknesses
Needs to improve his core strength and fortify his base. Plays too tall and narrow-based -- pad level fluctuates. Does not explode on contact. Footwork and technique need refinement. Carries his hands low. Tends to overextend and bend at the waist. Average contact balance and body control. Slides off blocks. Struggles to clear his feet as a puller. Inconsistent connecting and sustaining on the second level.

 

[xwalker]

your post did something odd but I think the last line is yours....

If so, that could be true, didn't check every guy's height and weight and the numbers aren;t bad as they look when taken in context.

I didn't so that's my bad. They are bad numbers overall lol, but at 315 pounds they are well above average.


I will stand by the questions about his strengh though.
Weaknesses
Needs to improve his core strength and fortify his base. Plays too tall and narrow-based -- pad level fluctuates. Does not explode on contact. Footwork and technique need refinement. Carries his hands low. Tends to overextend and bend at the waist. Average contact balance and body control. Slides off blocks. Struggles to clear his feet as a puller. Inconsistent connecting and sustaining on the second level.

I just re-watched his game against K-State. I love watching this guy play.

I don't see any lack of power or strength.

His build might cause somebody to get the impression that he plays too tall, but it's really not much of an issue if it's an issue at all. He just has longer legs that are a little thinner than normal in the calf area.

Does not explode on contact.

This is completely wrong. He explodes into contact better than most OLinemen.

He reminds me of the Safety Roy Williams in how he can explode into somebody in a very short area. This does cause him to occasionally "slide" off of a block if he doesn't hit the defender square when he explodes into him.

He is incredibly light on his feet with terrific body control in the open field.

I don't see any waist bending.

I don't know where that analysis came from, but it's one of the worst that I've seen for any player.

He is raw from technique perspective, but I doubt his coaches tried to change anything when he was already dominating people.

 

[jterrell]

I just re-watched his game against K-State. I love watching this guy play.

I don't see any lack of power or strength.

His build might cause somebody to get the impression that he plays too tall, but it's really not much of an issue if it's an issue at all. He just has longer legs that are a little thinner than normal in the calf area.


This is completely wrong. He explodes into contact better than most OLinemen.

He reminds me of the Safety Roy Williams in how he can explode into somebody in a very short area. This does cause him to occasionally "slide" off of a block if he doesn't hit the defender square when he explodes into him.

He is incredibly light on his feet with terrific body control in the open field.

I don't see any waist bending.

I don't know where that analysis came from, but it's one of the worst that I've seen for any player.

He is raw from technique perspective, but I doubt his coaches tried to change anything when he was already dominating people.

Came from NFL.com combine profile.
As a sanity check I just watched the entire 15 minute draftbreakdown.com clip of his KST game.
I have to largely agree with the NFL.com analyst.
Not sure how you could watch that tape and not think he played high.
He did show pop so I'd grant that gladly. --but he is 315 versus guys in the 260s or less on many of those plays.
But he also looks thin in the butt and legs for that weight.
He is not real thick in that lower body.

On a lot of the running plays he is part of a double on guys.. which seems odd considering he has to be their best athlete on offense by a mile.

Compare him to JuWuan James playing RT for Tennessee versus a much better Oregon team. (Antonio Richardson is at LT)
http://draftbreakdown.com/video/jawuan-james-vs-oregon-2013/
James plays much lower. And looks much thicker in the lower body.
Turner does look more athletic and quicker but I think James is the better prospect because he is what he is, a RT.
Turner has to develop a lot IMHO.

If you want a LT to develop over 3 years Turner might be your guy.