That’s all possible. But you are completely ignoring the other side of the ledger. If Dak wants $40M per year and the Cowboys have decided that’s too much to pay Dak, then tagging him with exclusive tag gets you : One year at $37ish and most likely a 3rd round pick from Dak’s departure the next season in free agency. If the Cowboys tag Dak with non-exclusive tag, it is very plausible that the Cowboys could lose Dak’s services for THIS season, but save the $37M and get two first round picks as compensation. You may think that is a horrible idea, but that’s merely opinion. I can see the benefits of both paths. A third possibility would be that Dak has overplayed his hand and it might actually drive Dak’s price down. If Dak really WANTS to be a Cowboy, then it takes away the threat of leverage from Dak. Being the Dallas Cowboys QB carries endorsement possibilities that few other teams can compete with. Thats just part of the other side of the coin.