Five Thirty Eight on drafts and statistics

[pancakeman]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-hard-to-tell-how-good-nfl-teams-are-at-the-draft/

Kind of interesting look at how well the NFL drafts in the aggregate.

 

[texbumthelife]

Wow that's actually very cool. Thanks for the post. I honestly had no idea the % for linebackers was that heavily first round loaded.

 

[YosemiteSam]

So, about 25% of RBs drafted in the first round turn all pro?

Sounds like a decent reason to draft a RB in the first round.

 

[Common Sense]

Since 1990, drafting a QB in the first round means there's about a 90% chance that the player will never be an All-Pro. Ouch.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

Looks like sweet spot for QB is 6th round

 

[Common Sense]

Looks like sweet spot for QB is 6th round

That has to be Brady and Hasselbeck and no one else, right?

It's not really that useful of a graph, if you think about it. If it's saying 6% of 6th round QBs since 1990 have been named All-Pro, and we know there are only two, then it just means there have only been 33 or so QBs taken in that round since then. Had some of the 7th round QBs been taken a few spots earlier, that bump wouldn't look so sharp.

 

[pancakeman]

Wow that's actually very cool. Thanks for the post. I honestly had no idea the % for linebackers was that heavily first round loaded.

You're welcome.

They address the position thing with what I thought was a very interesting interpretation:

Linebackers and offensive linemen, for example, are among the positions most likely to see first-rounders named to an All-Pro team, and they’re also among the most difficult positions to judge statistically.8 It’s possible that teams find it easier to assess the potential of players at those positions, making it more likely that they’ll draft players who go on to become stars. But it’s also possible that players with good pedigrees and name recognition are being given preferential treatment when awards are granted, in the absence of meaningful performance data (like what exists for offensive skill players) to challenge our perceptions.

In other words, some of this might just be "I can rank the RBs [for example] by total yardage and have a clear idea of likely good candidates for my All-Pro vote. But for LBs I have to rely on who I think of as good players. Like those guys who got drafted high in previous years."
They link to another 538 post that goes into more detail on this issue.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-hard-to-tell-how-good-nfl-teams-are-at-the-draft/

Kind of interesting look at how well the NFL drafts in the aggregate.

So, according to this, our draft should go:

1st. Myles Jack
2nd. Karl Joseph
3rd. Paul Perkins
4th. Kenny Lawler and KaiVarae Russell

 

[JoeyBoy718]

So, about 25% of RBs drafted in the first round turn all pro?

Sounds like a decent reason to draft a RB in the first round.

Did you miss the part where it's the 2nd lowest out of all the positional groups?

 

[JoeyBoy718]

So basically "project" QBs after the 2nd round are a joke. Go big or go home.

 

[YosemiteSam]

Did you miss the part where it's the 2nd lowest out of all the positional groups?

Did you see where QBs were the lowest? Why in hell would anyone want to draft a QB in the first round!?!?!!!!

 

[Irvin88_4life]

That has to be Brady and Hasselbeck and no one else, right?

It's not really that useful of a graph, if you think about it. If it's saying 6% of 6th round QBs since 1990 have been named All-Pro, and we know there are only two, then it just means there have only been 33 or so QBs taken in that round since then. Had some of the 7th round QBs been taken a few spots earlier, that bump wouldn't look so sharp.

Ya I know just being funny seeing QBs percentage in first round isn't just a little higher and no other rounds had any.

 

[YosemiteSam]

So basically "project" QBs after the 2nd round are a joke. Go big or go home.

Cost vs Chance of Return, the 6th round is where you want to draft your QBs!

 

[YosemiteSam]

Oh btw since I'm sure this will be missed on many. These numbers are highly skewed. A team on the field will have only 1QB and 1 RB (I don't count trash positions like FB), but the higher success rating is on positions that can have 3-5 players on the field at the same time. This skews the graph based on chance of success. You have a much higher rate of all-pro success when you can draft for 5 different positions that count as one.

 

[ConceptCoop]

Oh btw since I'm sure this will be missed on many. These numbers are highly skewed. A team on the field will have only 1QB and 1 RB (I don't count trash positions like FB), but the higher success rating is on positions that can have 3-5 players on the field at the same time. This skews the graph based on chance of success. You have a much higher rate of all-pro success when you can draft for 5 different positions that count as one.

I think you're mistaken. Just because this study lumped the DBs together, doesn't mean the All-Pro team does. There are 2 safety spots and 2 CB spots. And sure, twice as many corners make the All-Pro team, but there are way more than twice as many corners drafted.

And RB actually has 2 slots on the All-Pro team. That's likely the easiest spot to be named All-Pro, based on that. Teams start one, but the All-Pro team names 2.

 

[YosemiteSam]

I think you're mistaken. Just because this study lumped the DBs together, doesn't mean the All-Pro team does. There are 2 safety spots and 2 CB spots. And sure, twice as many corners make the All-Pro team, but there are way more than twice as many corners drafted.

Math, learn how it works! Tell me something. How many DB positions in the NFL as a whole throughout the entire league? How many QB positions? How many RB positions? OL/DL? I wonder if that projects to how many players are drafted at each position....

Whoops. Yan Can Cook, Sam can do math!

 

[Common Sense]

The number of All-Pros at each position varies from year to year. In 2012, there were 5 All-Pro RBs and 4 All-Pro CBs.

You're not going to get much value out of this graph if you're actually trying to determine which players at a particular position in each round have the highest chance of success.

 

[ConceptCoop]

Math, learn how it works! Tell me something. How many DB positions in the NFL as a whole throughout the entire league? How many QB positions? How many RB positions? OL/DL? I wonder if that projects to how many players are drafted at each position....

Whoops. Yan Can Cook, Sam can do math!

I'm an analyst by trade. This is what I do for a living. You're mistaken. The starter:All-Pro ratio is 1:1 for every position but RB.

Perhaps you don't see significance in the metric, but that doesn't make it "highly skewed."

 

[Jake0]

5th round for RBs... work a deal to get a 5th rounder and get Keith Marshall. If he's healthy pretty sure he'll add a notch to that graph for 5th round rbs playing for us.

 

[ConceptCoop]

The number of All-Pros at each position varies from year to year. In 2012, there were 5 All-Pro RBs and 4 All-Pro CBs.

You're not going to get much value out of this graph if you're actually trying to determine which players at a particular position in each round have the highest chance of success.

Different media outlets have different All-Pro selections. That's likely what you're seeing. But the All-Pro line-up does not vary by year.