masomenos
Less is more
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A lot of people have started talking about how we need to find Flo's eventual replacement fairly soon, as soon as this draft. With Adams' contract up after this year and considering his age and somewhat inconsistent play recently it's no surprise that people are starting to talk about finding the guy who will take over for him. Some have prematurely tabbed Pat McQuistan as that guy, but as a 7th round pick who has shown very little it's really more wishful thinking than anything. One of the popular solutions to finding the next LT has been to draft a tackle like Alan Barbre in the 3rd or 4th round this year, but would he really be the best solution?
The most important thing for a LT is for him to be good in pass protection, as they protect the QBs (or at least right handed QBs) blind side. Here is a breakdown of how the OT prospects faired in pass protection over the past two years:
2005/2006 QB Pressures Allowed
1. Levi Brown - 0
2t. Alan Barbre - 1
2t. Joe Staley - 1
4. Doug Free - 2
5t. James Marten - 3
5t. Marshall Yanda - 3
7t. Tala Esera - 5
7t. Mike Otto - 5
9. Joe Thomas - 5.5 (only .5 in 2006)
10. Tony Ugoh - 10
2005/2006 Sacks Allowed
1. Mike Otto - 1
2. Alan Barbre - 2.5
3. James Marten - 3
4. Tony Ugoh - 2.5
5t. Levi Brown - 4
5t. Tala Esera - 4
7. Joe Thomas - 4.5 (only .5 in 2006)
8. Joe Staley - 5
9. Marshall Yanda - 5.5
10. Doug Free - 9
It's worth noting that Barbre, Brown and Marten are the only players in the top half of each category and that Barbre is the only one in the top 3. Marten also has a fairly poor block success of 81% and shows very little in the run game. Brown is also a little below average in terms of his block success rate but shows much better success in run blocking while Barbre is average or better at everything, but did play at a smaller school.
I won't spend too much time talking about Joe Thomas because he will definitely be gone. All of the other players seem to be pretty fair game, although it's almost certain that Brown will be gone too. When taking a players agility times into consideration the top 5 pass blockers are (excluding Thomas):
1. Alan Barbre (Rd 3-4)
2. Levi Brown (Rd 1)
3. Joe Staley (Rd 1)
4. James Marten (Rd 3)
5. Mike Otto (Rd 4)
While pass blocking is essential for a LT, to be successful in the league they also have to be proficient in run blocking as well. Again, excluding Thomas, the top 5 run blockers (based on down field blocks, td resulting blocks, etc) are:
1. Joe Staley (Rd 1)
2. Mike Otto (Rd 4)
3. Levi Brown (Rd 1)
4. Alan Barbre (Rd 3-4)
5. James Marten (Rd 3)
And in terms of overall rankings, when adding in success rates, small school modifiers, etc, the rankings would be:
1. Joe Staley (Rd 1)
2. Alan Barbre (Rd 3-4)
3. Levi Brown (Rd 1)
4. Mike Otto (Rd 4)
Now these rankings only go to 4 because after Mike Otto the scores drop significantly and the potential of finding a starter who grades worse than Otto would be very difficult. There are a few people on the board who have talked about Staley in the first but I believe it would be a very "un-sexy" pick and not one that fans would be too thrilled about. However, in terms of replacing Flozell then Staley may be our best option. Barbre and Brown are both just a level below Staley though and would be fine choices, although if Brown is available we still may be better off waiting and trying to grab Barbre later on. Mike Otto is another level below Barbre and Brown and has serious issues with his overall strength (20 reps) but does have the frame to get bigger and under an NFL weight program could get significantly stronger but he would definitely be more of a project than the other options.
Another interesting thing to consider is that of the 32 starting LTs in the NFL 50% of them were chosen in the first round, 70% in the first two rounds and 83% on the first day. I bring this up because it shows that expecting to draft a late round developmental player and expecting them to eventually become the starter is not a very solid strategy. Also, of the LTs chosen to the Pro Bowl in the past 5 years 67% were first round picks and 27% were second round picks. So to draft a LT prospect any later than Rd 2 and expecting them to really develop into something special is also a little foolish.
The most important thing for a LT is for him to be good in pass protection, as they protect the QBs (or at least right handed QBs) blind side. Here is a breakdown of how the OT prospects faired in pass protection over the past two years:
2005/2006 QB Pressures Allowed
1. Levi Brown - 0
2t. Alan Barbre - 1
2t. Joe Staley - 1
4. Doug Free - 2
5t. James Marten - 3
5t. Marshall Yanda - 3
7t. Tala Esera - 5
7t. Mike Otto - 5
9. Joe Thomas - 5.5 (only .5 in 2006)
10. Tony Ugoh - 10
2005/2006 Sacks Allowed
1. Mike Otto - 1
2. Alan Barbre - 2.5
3. James Marten - 3
4. Tony Ugoh - 2.5
5t. Levi Brown - 4
5t. Tala Esera - 4
7. Joe Thomas - 4.5 (only .5 in 2006)
8. Joe Staley - 5
9. Marshall Yanda - 5.5
10. Doug Free - 9
It's worth noting that Barbre, Brown and Marten are the only players in the top half of each category and that Barbre is the only one in the top 3. Marten also has a fairly poor block success of 81% and shows very little in the run game. Brown is also a little below average in terms of his block success rate but shows much better success in run blocking while Barbre is average or better at everything, but did play at a smaller school.
I won't spend too much time talking about Joe Thomas because he will definitely be gone. All of the other players seem to be pretty fair game, although it's almost certain that Brown will be gone too. When taking a players agility times into consideration the top 5 pass blockers are (excluding Thomas):
1. Alan Barbre (Rd 3-4)
2. Levi Brown (Rd 1)
3. Joe Staley (Rd 1)
4. James Marten (Rd 3)
5. Mike Otto (Rd 4)
While pass blocking is essential for a LT, to be successful in the league they also have to be proficient in run blocking as well. Again, excluding Thomas, the top 5 run blockers (based on down field blocks, td resulting blocks, etc) are:
1. Joe Staley (Rd 1)
2. Mike Otto (Rd 4)
3. Levi Brown (Rd 1)
4. Alan Barbre (Rd 3-4)
5. James Marten (Rd 3)
And in terms of overall rankings, when adding in success rates, small school modifiers, etc, the rankings would be:
1. Joe Staley (Rd 1)
2. Alan Barbre (Rd 3-4)
3. Levi Brown (Rd 1)
4. Mike Otto (Rd 4)
Now these rankings only go to 4 because after Mike Otto the scores drop significantly and the potential of finding a starter who grades worse than Otto would be very difficult. There are a few people on the board who have talked about Staley in the first but I believe it would be a very "un-sexy" pick and not one that fans would be too thrilled about. However, in terms of replacing Flozell then Staley may be our best option. Barbre and Brown are both just a level below Staley though and would be fine choices, although if Brown is available we still may be better off waiting and trying to grab Barbre later on. Mike Otto is another level below Barbre and Brown and has serious issues with his overall strength (20 reps) but does have the frame to get bigger and under an NFL weight program could get significantly stronger but he would definitely be more of a project than the other options.
Another interesting thing to consider is that of the 32 starting LTs in the NFL 50% of them were chosen in the first round, 70% in the first two rounds and 83% on the first day. I bring this up because it shows that expecting to draft a late round developmental player and expecting them to eventually become the starter is not a very solid strategy. Also, of the LTs chosen to the Pro Bowl in the past 5 years 67% were first round picks and 27% were second round picks. So to draft a LT prospect any later than Rd 2 and expecting them to really develop into something special is also a little foolish.
