Flozell's Replacement

[fanfromvirginia]

A lot of people have started talking about how we need to find Flo's eventual replacement fairly soon, as soon as this draft. With Adams' contract up after this year and considering his age and somewhat inconsistent play recently it's no surprise that people are starting to talk about finding the guy who will take over for him. Some have prematurely tabbed Pat McQuistan as that guy, but as a 7th round pick who has shown very little it's really more wishful thinking than anything. One of the popular solutions to finding the next LT has been to draft a tackle like Alan Barbre in the 3rd or 4th round this year, but would he really be the best solution?

The most important thing for a LT is for him to be good in pass protection, as they protect the QBs (or at least right handed QBs) blind side. Here is a breakdown of how the OT prospects faired in pass protection over the past two years:

2005/2006 QB Pressures Allowed
1. Levi Brown - 0
2t. Alan Barbre - 1
2t. Joe Staley - 1
4. Doug Free - 2
5t. James Marten - 3
5t. Marshall Yanda - 3
7t. Tala Esera - 5
7t. Mike Otto - 5
9. Joe Thomas - 5.5 (only .5 in 2006)
10. Tony Ugoh - 10

2005/2006 Sacks Allowed
1. Mike Otto - 1
2. Alan Barbre - 2.5
3. James Marten - 3
4. Tony Ugoh - 2.5
5t. Levi Brown - 4
5t. Tala Esera - 4
7. Joe Thomas - 4.5 (only .5 in 2006)
8. Joe Staley - 5
9. Marshall Yanda - 5.5
10. Doug Free - 9

It's worth noting that Barbre, Brown and Marten are the only players in the top half of each category and that Barbre is the only one in the top 3. Marten also has a fairly poor block success of 81% and shows very little in the run game. Brown is also a little below average in terms of his block success rate but shows much better success in run blocking while Barbre is average or better at everything, but did play at a smaller school.

I won't spend too much time talking about Joe Thomas because he will definitely be gone. All of the other players seem to be pretty fair game, although it's almost certain that Brown will be gone too. When taking a players agility times into consideration the top 5 pass blockers are (excluding Thomas):

1. Alan Barbre (Rd 3-4)
2. Levi Brown (Rd 1)
3. Joe Staley (Rd 1)
4. James Marten (Rd 3)
5. Mike Otto (Rd 4)

While pass blocking is essential for a LT, to be successful in the league they also have to be proficient in run blocking as well. Again, excluding Thomas, the top 5 run blockers (based on down field blocks, td resulting blocks, etc) are:

1. Joe Staley (Rd 1)
2. Mike Otto (Rd 4)
3. Levi Brown (Rd 1)
4. Alan Barbre (Rd 3-4)
5. James Marten (Rd 3)

And in terms of overall rankings, when adding in success rates, small school modifiers, etc, the rankings would be:

1. Joe Staley (Rd 1)
2. Alan Barbre (Rd 3-4)
3. Levi Brown (Rd 1)
4. Mike Otto (Rd 4)

Now these rankings only go to 4 because after Mike Otto the scores drop significantly and the potential of finding a starter who grades worse than Otto would be very difficult. There are a few people on the board who have talked about Staley in the first but I believe it would be a very "un-sexy" pick and not one that fans would be too thrilled about. However, in terms of replacing Flozell then Staley may be our best option. Barbre and Brown are both just a level below Staley though and would be fine choices, although if Brown is available we still may be better off waiting and trying to grab Barbre later on. Mike Otto is another level below Barbre and Brown and has serious issues with his overall strength (20 reps) but does have the frame to get bigger and under an NFL weight program could get significantly stronger but he would definitely be more of a project than the other options.

Another interesting thing to consider is that of the 32 starting LTs in the NFL 50% of them were chosen in the first round, 70% in the first two rounds and 83% on the first day. I bring this up because it shows that expecting to draft a late round developmental player and expecting them to eventually become the starter is not a very solid strategy. Also, of the LTs chosen to the Pro Bowl in the past 5 years 67% were first round picks and 27% were second round picks. So to draft a LT prospect any later than Rd 2 and expecting them to really develop into something special is also a little foolish.

Very good work. Interesting read. I'd be happy if we were to get Barbre in the third.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

Exactly.


If someone were to say, "The tackle we're going to draft THIS year in the 7th round is going to replace Adams"... I'd say they were crocked but considering McQ has already gone through one training, looked good, made the team, was here all season, and will be here through the offseason and another training camp, I'd say the kid's chances of being better than your average 7th rounder have shot-up tremendously.

Certainly "better than your average 7th rounder" is a fair assessment. But is he an (unbelievably butt-ugly) diamond in the rough?

Jury's way out on that one. It can't hurt to have an extra first-day pick battling it out with McQ for the "heir to Flo" throne.

 

[Sandyf]

Interesting stats and I wouldn't mind Barbre in the 3th or 4th rounds. Although everything I have seen projects him to either RT or OG.

I would like Otto in the 4th or 5th for a few reasons. First he can play either LT or RT but many project him to OG. Second, he can play center and has taken snaps there, so he could play all 5 positions on the line which would be great. But, third is he has a great work ethic, great character, nasty demeanor on the field and takes it personally when he gets beat (usually never happens again by the same player) and most of all he lives for the game (heart) which many players don't have in today's game.

 

[jay cee]

Certainly "better than your average 7th rounder" is a fair assessment. But is he an (unbelievably butt-ugly) diamond in the rough?

Jury's way out on that one. It can't hurt to have an extra first-day pick battling it out with McQ for the "heir to Flo" throne.

Nah, Parcells likes him. No way he's not going to be a pro bowl caliber LT.
No need to waste draft picks on that position for the next 7-10 years.

 

[hendog]

If being ugly counted for anything - well then............

 

[masomenos]

You mean like it's slim to find a FA OT who was a first round pick but got severely injuried after few games as starting RT so that his career was essentially almost over but who Parcells took a chance on knowing the player couldn't contribute that year (in o5) but might contribute in 06. Who would have thought that player would beat out the other OTs we had on the team (admittedly not that good OTs) to become our starter -- think his name is Colombo. Ever hear of the guy?

no, lol, I don't mean like that because I didn't say anything about free agents or injured players.

 

[theogt]

no, lol, I don't mean like that because I didn't say anything about free agents or injured players.

Considering that the entire reason that Parcells gave him a shot was that he was a former 1st round pick, Colombo is a pretty good example on your behalf.

 

[masomenos]

Exactly.


If someone were to say, "The tackle we're going to draft THIS year in the 7th round is going to replace Adams"... I'd say they were crocked but considering McQ has already gone through one training, looked good, made the team, was here all season, and will be here through the offseason and another training camp, I'd say the kid's chances of being better than your average 7th rounder have shot-up tremendously.

I think it's more likely that McQ made the team because there were no other LTs worthy of being the roster and because he was one of Parcell's "Pet Cat" picks. I mean goodness, the guy started one year at Weber St. and after having one solid training camp and making the team we're saying he has a chance of being the guy? I think we need to be realistic here, just like people need to be realistic that in all likely hood neither Sam Hurd nor Miles Austin are the answer at WR after TO/TG leave/retire. I'm not saying they don't have potential but its more realistic to think that their potential is more in the realm of back than starter and certainly more back up than difference maker.

 

[masomenos]

Considering that the entire reason that Parcells gave him a shot was that he was a former 1st round pick, Colombo is a pretty good example on your behalf.

Yeah, I was gonna say that he chances of succeeding after being injured actually were somewhat high because he still had 1st round talent, he just needed to shake off rust, stay healthy, and gain some confidence. I mean isn't it telling that a 1st round pick who's been injured for 3 years was able to beat out Rob Pettiti, a 6th round pick who was the incumbent starter?

 

[Angus]

Draft snobs can be found anywhere. There is some excuse when the prospective draftee is not on the team and can't be fully evaluated, but there is no excuse for denigrating a player on the team simply because he was not a high round pick after he has showed ability and promise under coaching supervision. Romo's case should have taught some people a lesson. Guess not.

 

[masomenos]

Interesting stats and I wouldn't mind Barbre in the 3th or 4th rounds. Although everything I have seen projects him to either RT or OG.

I would like Otto in the 4th or 5th for a few reasons. First he can play either LT or RT but many project him to OG. Second, he can play center and has taken snaps there, so he could play all 5 positions on the line which would be great. But, third is he has a great work ethic, great character, nasty demeanor on the field and takes it personally when he gets beat (usually never happens again by the same player) and most of all he lives for the game (heart) which many players don't have in today's game.

I like Otto too, but he isn't very strong at all and while I imagine he can get stronger he may always be a little behind the curve in terms of strength. He's a fringe prospect as a potential starter in my book but probably more realistic to think of him as a solid backup or a stop-gap starter. With that said, if we missed out on Barbre in the 3rd or 4th (I'm thinking 3rd) then I'd be fine with taking Otto in the 4th or 5th and giving him a chance.

 

[masomenos]

Draft snobs can be found anywhere. There is some excuse when the prospective draftee is not on the team and can't be fully evaluated, but there is no excuse for denigrating a player on the team simply because he was not a high round pick after he has showed ability and promise under coaching supervision. Romo's case should have taught some people a lesson. Guess not.

We're talking about odds of success here. The odds that McQuistan will emerge as a top flight LT are low. Yes, just like the odds that Romo would become a quality starter were low. But with McQuistan, it's not exactly like he was competing with good players in order to make the roster, I'm not even sure who he beat out to make the team. Why put all your eggs in one basket and hope that this 7th round pick who is incredibly raw will develop into the guy without having a backup plan? Where's the harm in drafting a guy to compete against McQ so we can see where he really stands and so that we have more depth at the position?

 

[BouncingCheese]

It seems like there just has to be one guy every year that is "the elite tackle" that is projected in the top 5, and every year some guy just happens to get annointed that position, regardless of whether he really deserves to be a top 5 pick. Oh well...if the idiots are willing to draft 'em, so be it.

I know what your saying, but I think that Joe Thomas has moved up so high because although he isn't a beast in either in pass/run blocking, he *seems* athletic enough to keep up with fast D-ends, unlike a certain man named Flozell Adams:bang2: .... I only heard good things about Joe Thomas, but you guys on this board seem to be more objective about it instead of drooling over his measurables. He could definetley be a bust; to me, he just looks like that lineman Eric Steinbech now on the Browns, not overpowering, but fleet-footed enough to take on fast ends. Stronger players on defense could overpower him, though.

 

[Angus]

We're talking about odds of success here. The odds that McQuistan will emerge as a top flight LT are low. Yes, just like the odds that Romo would become a quality starter were low. But with McQuistan, it's not exactly like he was competing with good players in order to make the roster, I'm not even sure who he beat out to make the team. Why put all your eggs in one basket and hope that this 7th round pick who is incredibly raw will develop into the guy without having a backup plan? Where's the harm in drafting a guy to compete against McQ so we can see where he really stands and so that we have more depth at the position?

No harm, but your doubts about McQuistan apparently stem from the fact that he was a 7th round pick. If you show me you had similar doubts about about Peterman before his second year I'll be less inclined to accuse you of irrational prejudice.

By the way, do you think Romo was competing against good players to make the roster for four years? If so, who were they?

 

[theogt]

No harm, but your doubts about McQuistan apparently stem from the fact that he was a 7th round pick. If you show me you had similar doubts about about Peterman before his second year I'll be less inclined to accuse you of irrational prejudice.

By the way, do you think Romo was competing against good players to make the roster for four years? If so, who were they?

If his doubts are based on where he was drafted (in cases where we know nothing more than that), then why would he think similarly regarding Peterman?

The point is, until we know something more about the player beyond where he was drafted, basing your opinion on that is not unreliable.

 

[BouncingCheese]

If his doubts are based on where he was drafted (in cases where we know nothing more than that), then why would he think similarly regarding Peterman?

The point is, until we know something more about the player beyond where he was drafted, basing your opinion on that is not unreliable.

Both of those Lineman that we took were aberrations, I don't think that many draftologists(real word? who cares) or even cowboys fans were really dogging those picks. I did not think that both Rogers and Peterman were going to be THAT bad.

I think Mquistan is going to pan out, but I think he is a little slow-footed. From the looks of how this line is shaping up, it looks like it is going to be more oriented for running the ball, with big, strong lineman (with the exception of Kosier) mashing the ball. I could be wrong, those are my thoughts.

Ironic, that Parcells drafted Rogers/Peterman so that he could better use the run game to control the clock the way he likes to, but never could. I want to see how Garrett will run the offense, I hope we do pound the ball more. My only thing is if we have built an offensive line built for running the ball but not so built for pass protection ala Pittsburg Steelers.

 

[BouncingCheese]

No harm, but your doubts about McQuistan apparently stem from the fact that he was a 7th round pick. If you show me you had similar doubts about about Peterman before his second year I'll be less inclined to accuse you of irrational prejudice.

By the way, do you think Romo was competing against good players to make the roster for four years? If so, who were they?

Sean Payton went to the same school as Romo, and besides that bias, he honestly thought that he was a legit talent. Remember, Jerrah drafted Carter in the 2nd round because he thought he was going to be the franchise QB. Hutchinson was around during the Campo era, which I will leave at that. :bang2: Drew Henson was a talent in college, but went to play baseball for a while, then came back to the NFL, but was ultimately a failure. Finally, Drew Bledose was brought in by Parcells, just like Testaverde, AND Jason Ferguson, and Aaron Glenn, AND Terry Glenn, because Parcells did not want to start over with young guys, and wanted to play his boys that he knew were vets and wouldn't take time to groom.

Honestly, I think that Sean Payton would have said that Romo was the better QB of Drew Bledsoe and Romo, the only two legit QB's on the team IMO. Sean Payton reportedly offered the Cowboys a 2nd round pick before the start of last season. ( his first with the Saints) Just so you know how valuable Payton thought of Romo.

Side note: I really wish we kept Payton he really is an offensive genious (if you doubt that, look at was Drew Brees , who can't throw the football more than 50 yards down the field, accumulate 4000 passing yards, as well as kepping defenses in check by taking our CASTOFFS from our defense like scott fujita) ; did any of you guys notice how bland the offense got when Bledsoe played last year? Payton brought the best of Bledsoe out by doing really cool plays, like actually getting Bledsoe to roll out(wow!) and give him some time to use his cannon arm. I noticed time and time again last season Drew's hand was hit just as he was releasing to throw deep to wide-open Terry Glenn.

 

[masomenos]

No harm, but your doubts about McQuistan apparently stem from the fact that he was a 7th round pick. If you show me you had similar doubts about about Peterman before his second year I'll be less inclined to accuse you of irrational prejudice.

By the way, do you think Romo was competing against good players to make the roster for four years? If so, who were they?

Well first, I could be wrong, but I think that McQuistan actually played OG at Weber St. and that his brother played OT. "Twin brother, Pat, was a teammate at Weber State (2001-05), starting alongside Paul at left offensive guard". So my first concern is that before this year he never actually player OT, coupled with the scouting report that says he has trouble with moving targets I also have concerns about how well he can handle speed rushers. He also only had 55 knockdown blocks as a senior, which ranks fairly lowly when compared to other LT prospects. And no, I didn't have any concerns about Peterman because I wasn't as involved in the draft as I am now, he was completely unknown to me.

As far as Romo competing...he was competing for the THIRD roster spot, not as the backup (until last year). There's a difference in competing for a backup job and competing for a third string job. Also Romo was one of the best players at his level in college and he took 4 years to develop. McQuistan was a relative nobody at the 1-AA level and is FAR from a finished product. There is no reason to believe that he will be able to come in and fill in for Flozell (a pro bowler) without the offense missing a beat.

 

[BouncingCheese]

Well first, I could be wrong, but I think that McQuistan actually played OG at Weber St. and that his brother played OT. "Twin brother, Pat, was a teammate at Weber State (2001-05), starting alongside Paul at left offensive guard". So my first concern is that before this year he never actually player OT, coupled with the scouting report that says he has trouble with moving targets I also have concerns about how well he can handle speed rushers. He also only had 55 knockdown blocks as a senior, which ranks fairly lowly when compared to other LT prospects. And no, I didn't have any concerns about Peterman because I wasn't as involved in the draft as I am now, he was completely unknown to me.

As far as Romo competing...he was competing for the THIRD roster spot, not as the backup (until last year). There's a difference in competing for a backup job and competing for a third string job. Also Romo was one of the best players at his level in college and he took 4 years to develop. McQuistan was a relative nobody at the 1-AA level and is FAR from a finished product. There is no reason to believe that he will be able to come in and fill in for Flozell (a pro bowler) without the offense missing a beat.

Thanks for the corrections.

I don't think probowls mean anything today. I have absolutely Hated Flo'z production from the LT spot, he was a much better guard. The probowl is a bit of a joke. (John Lynch, anyone? watch the Chargers game, he was eaten alive by Antonio Gates and other TE's, yet he still makes the probowl because of his past greatness.) If you guys bring up the fact that he was one of the better tackles in the NFC (which he wasn't) then you guys are honestly weakening your argument as the NFC is more-watered down than the AFC talent-wise.

Me? I think we should look at drafting a tackle in the first day of the draft if availible.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Biggest problem with Frye is that he never really produced all that well on the field, he seems like one of those guys who has the size and everything but just lacks the talent needed to succeed.

the question w/ Frye is he intense enough? he played pretty soft, but the talent is there, any NFL coach can utilize it

he just needs to play w/ a fire up his butt