FO: Any Given Sunday (DAL at DEN)

[JD_KaPow]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/any-given-sunday/2017/any-given-sunday-broncos-over-cowboys

"It's hard to imagine that this group just got whipped up front, but that's the gist of it."

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"Despite the pick-six, I don't know if it's fair to say that Prescott had a horrendous game. He had some nice throws. It's just that this is a ridiculously good pass defense, and they appeared to be in Prescott's head from the beginning.

Dallas' passing game is mainly fueled by just how good and efficient Dez Bryant can be. With Bryant catching just seven of 16 targets for 59 yards, the Cowboys were forced to promote the rest of their receivers to more central roles that they just can't handle. Jason Witten is one of the best tight ends of all time, but jogs out routes like your dad at this point in his career. Cole Beasley wins with short-area quickness. If Bryant can't get 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage in this offense, none of the reliable receivers can. And against this pass defense, you can't afford to constrict yourself at all."

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"Questionable Coaching Decision of the Game
With 11:47 to play and a manageable fourth-and-3 at their own 26, the Cowboys punted away down three scores. The Broncos managed to drain 5:20 before they gave the ball back, effectively depleting any chance that Dallas had of winning the game.

The society of coaches who play for the respectable loss is a weird and maddening one."

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"According to Sports Info Solutions charting, 165 of Denver's 178 rushing yards came after first contact.

...It's also true that this is traditionally how the Cowboys play defense under Rod Marinelli. They will eschew giving up the big play to keep things in front of them.

In that way, the matchup with the Cowboys was playing to Denver's strengths. Rather than making Siemian throw deep inaccurately, Dallas allowed the shorter passes to the main Denver ballcarriers, who have enough tackle-breaking ability to pounce on some poor effort and keep Dallas constantly backpedaling."

 

[links18]

I didn't like the decision to punt in the 4th quarter...

 

[Sydla]

I never really thought about it that way, but they make a great point about how Marinelli is often content to just drop corners off and give short passes and that just helps Siemian.

 

[TWOK11]

Punting there was a bizarre decision. Garrett reverted to his poor decision making tendencies of 2011-2013 in this game.

 

[ActualCowboysFan]

I never really thought about it that way, but they make a great point about how Marinelli is often content to just drop corners off and give short passes and that just helps Siemian.

Absolutely. I forced myself into a rewatch and was honestly surprised at the amount of two deep they played. I haven't seen the charting but it seems they're playing it much more than they did last year. They played it a lot in game one as well and the Giants had guys open but Eli couldn't find them. I think part of it is being shorthanded right now and I'm not sure how much everyone knows on the back end. It also seems like Heath is hurting them somewhat with his skillset preventing substantial run support.

 

[theebs]

Punting there was a bizarre decision. Garrett reverted to his poor decision making tendencies of 2011-2013 in this game.

I thought that was the right move. The punt was good. If you dont get the first and the odds were stacked against them that they would punting was really the only option if you wanted to keep a small chance of finding a way back in the game.

 

[TWOK11]

I thought that was the right move. The punt was good. If you dont get the first and the odds were stacked against them that they would punting was really the only option if you wanted to keep a small chance of finding a way back in the game.

Statistically, you'll convert 4th and 3 over 50% of the time. Our chance of winning the game immediately before the punt was 1.4%. After the punt, it immediately dropped to 0.6%. Had we not converted and Denver gotten the ball, it would have only dropped to 0.4%. Had we made exactly 3 yards on 4th down, our odds would have gone up to 1.8%.

So actually you are wrong, and I can prove it with statistics.

 

[Aven8]

I didn't like the punt, and going for it on 4th and 5 or whatever at the end down 3 scores. Kick the field goal and you are down 2 scores JG! Tell the team we are in this thing! But nope.

Dez got lazy and allowed the pick that Harris got, yet Zeke is the lazy culprit, and then Dez ran the laziest route ever on the final play for the Talib Int. Yet Zeke is lazy again, but anyone see Dez run after him?

 

[theebs]

Statistically, you'll convert 4th and 3 over 50% of the time. Our chance of winning the game immediately before the punt was 1.4%. After the punt, it immediately dropped to 0.6%. Had we not converted and Denver gotten the ball, it would have only dropped to 0.4%. Had we made exactly 3 yards on 4th down, our odds would have gone up to 1.8%.

So actually you are wrong, and I can prove it with statistics.

the statistics are correct and I dont doubt them but the situation in the game and the way Denver was having their way with our offense up front I completely understand why they punted. The punt ended up putting Denver at the 6 I think it was and would have shortened the field and they gotten off on third down which they didnt.

and to prove the point more about the stats not telling the whole story after denver punted on this drive Dallas was 4th and 3 again, the identical situation and they failed to convert. Dak was under a ton of pressure. It really didnt matter in the long run.

 

[TheHerd]

I never really thought about it that way, but they make a great point about how Marinelli is often content to just drop corners off and give short passes and that just helps Siemian.

Marinelli's defensive philosophy is why I think we'll never have playoff success unless he really changes his m.o. We rely on mistakes and red zone stops. That won't cut it against the best QBs once the playoffs roll around.

 

[Seven]

Let's talk about the bogus call on Lawrence.........

 

[JD_KaPow]

I thought that was the right move. The punt was good. If you dont get the first and the odds were stacked against them that they would punting was really the only option if you wanted to keep a small chance of finding a way back in the game.

I thought punting was an awful decision there. There were 12 minutes left, you haven't stopped them all day, and you need 3 scores. Do you really think you'll get the ball back 3 times AFTER punting it away? The odds of that alone (forget actually scoring on each of those 3 drives) have got to be much worse than the odds of converting a 4th and 3 right there.

Coaches are heavily biased toward decisions that reduce their chance of winning but "keep them in the game" longer, vs. decisions that maximize their chances of winning, but (if they don't work out) make the outcome inevitable earlier.

 

[Nova]

I never really thought about it that way, but they make a great point about how Marinelli is often content to just drop corners off and give short passes and that just helps Siemian.

I was screaming the whole game at my at my TV.

In addition, the philosophy doesn't work in conjunction with the offense.

If you want to play ball control, it's best to go play aggressive on defense. You either get a quick stop, a takeaway, or the other team scores.

But ultimately you get the ball back and start fresh... controlling the clock; Limiting your "high effort" defense's exposure to fatigue, and allowing time to bleed off the clock and the other offense to drop into a funk.

It's ironic that our defense is susceptible to our offensive philosophy. If a team wants to beat us, they just have to be us; methodical and patient.

 

[Doomsay]

Soft coverage was beyond stupid with a dink and dunker.

 

[DogFace]

The punt early that netted 20 yards was questionable. The dummy that stood in the end zone to down it should've paid attention in school. One of the needlessly stupid plays I've seen.

Who was that?

 

[DogFace]

Let's talk about the bogus call on Lawrence.........

Can we please. It changed the momentum and was not the right call.

What do they expect him to do? Not jump? Remove his hands and fall forward?? The dude went under him. I guess that's all you have to do now. Go low while engaged and make them lean on your back.

 

[AmericanCowboy]

Marinelli's defensive philosophy is why I think we'll never have playoff success unless he really changes his m.o. We rely on mistakes and red zone stops. That won't cut it against the best QBs once the playoffs roll around.

We really do rely on the QBs mistakes instead of trying to make plays

 

[Broges74]

I'm going to give credit to the Broncos game plan. It appeared we did exactly what the Broncos hoped we'd do and then it got out of hand when our WRs couldn't get separation and it was all on Daks shoulders to make pinpoint passes against 2 of the better corners in the game.

Dak needs a few more years like Brady had before he should be expected to execute in that type of situation. Zeke is a problem at the moment. Have to get his head on right and feed him regardless of how many are in the box. The o-line must not get pushed around or we will get thumped again by the Cards.

I expect a bounce back, hard fought game with the Cards.

 

[theebs]

I thought punting was an awful decision there. There were 12 minutes left, you haven't stopped them all day, and you need 3 scores. Do you really think you'll get the ball back 3 times AFTER punting it away? The odds of that alone (forget actually scoring on each of those 3 drives) have got to be much worse than the odds of converting a 4th and 3 right there.

Coaches are heavily biased toward decisions that reduce their chance of winning but "keep them in the game" longer, vs. decisions that maximize their chances of winning, but (if they don't work out) make the outcome inevitable earlier.

You can’t go for it on your 25. I think the rule of thumb is once you cross the 40. They converted a 4th and 1 and a 4th and 4 in the game so it’s not like they won’t go on fourth, it’s just that you have to cross the 40 first.

Like I said before if they get a stop on three downs Denver punts from their own end zone there and you probably have the ball at your 45 or so. They didn’t get the stop however.

 

[TheHerd]

You can’t go for it on your 25. I think the rule of thumb is once you cross the 40. They converted a 4th and 1 and a 4th and 4 in the game so it’s not like they won’t go on fourth, it’s just that you have to cross the 40 first.

Like I said before if they get a stop on three downs Denver punts from their own end zone there and you probably have the ball at your 45 or so. They didn’t get the stop however.

Shocking that our defense didn't come through.