CCBoy
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From a fan's view point...
To start, I'll journey from a point that a fan might have arrived at prior to the start of this season:
But there's a bigger picture here, and it's one that keeps getting missed as Cowboys fans wail and gnash their teeth about every single loss (and even some of the wins). These Cowboys are a work in progress -- a team and a staff and a roster that is piecing itself together and building something it hopes can be sustainable well into the future. You may not want to hear it, and you may not be able to believe it about the Cowboys, but they are in a rebuilding phase right now and much more likely to be a playoff contender in 2013 than this year. So as disappointed as Cowboys fans are about the loss, the penalties, the late-game clock management and everything and everybody else you want to blame, that bigger picture really needs to be the one on which the conversation about the 2012 Cowboys centers.
"We have to win the game, and we didn't do that," coach Jason Garrett said. "But I loved how our team battled. I was proud of our football team today, and we believe that we can grow from this football game."
A growth opportunity. A learning experience. These are valuable things for the Cowboys at this point in their history, and as Cowboys fans you may just have to accept that. Sure, this is the NFL, and the NFC East required only nine victories to win it last year, so nothing's impossible. The Cowboys' schedule gets easier, and if the run game and the offensive line can play the way they played Sunday, they could be much better in the second half of this season. But this season isn't the central focus of the people running the Cowboys right now. What they're looking for is growth and improvement, and they saw plenty of it Sunday.
"A lot of this game, you look at and you say, 'Those are the Cowboys we're talking about,'" tight end Jason Witten said. "Those are the kinds of players and leaders you want to grow with and build on."
He's talking about guys like Sean Lee, who remains a terror on defense, and DeMarco Murray, who ran for 91 yards in the first half before a foot injury forced him out of the game. But lots of Cowboys played very well Sunday, including Dez Bryant, who caught 13 passes for 95 yards, and Felix Jones, who rushed for 92 yards in relief of Murray, and Phil Costa and the rest of an offensive line that's been pulverized all year but on this day looked tough and mean and physical for the first time.
*(By Dan Graziano | ESPNDallas.com)
This immediately goes to the core of current issues, and a fan, due to his nature, wants to deal first in an onslaught of stats and measureables to solidfy a sense of unfullfilled dreams and a Monday morning's sarcasm.
So in just keeping with the 'way,' I bring up the topic of running the numbers and when applied, Staying Ahead Of The Chains.
*(the following is taken from Dallas Cowboys Star Magazine for 8 Oct '12, and written by Jonathan Bales)
When you hear Jason Garrett and other NFL coaches talk about 'staying aheadof the chains,' it means they want to make sure the offense in manageable down and distance scenarios. A 6-yard gain on first down is staying ahead of the chains, for example, as it allows an offensive coordinator to utilize is full assortment of plays.
Since a fan has an undying thirst for new and indicative stats, let's head there a bit now:
One objective way to measure 'staying ahead of the chain' is to track the expected points that every play adds to a drive. In each game situation, an offense can be expected to score a certain number of points on that particular drive. A first and 10 at midfield in normal game conditions, for example, historically has been worth about 2.4 points. That is, teams that find themselves in that situation average about 2.4 points on their drive.
This is exactly the type of game indicator that a Bill Parcells sought out in in his study of the game. That is why he simply stated: Control the clock, field position, and execute to plan. And he believed in just such indicators to point to trends in his own team.
One of the cool things about tracking expected points is that it allows us to MORE accurately measure 'success.'
For example, comparing the yards-per-carry behind various offensive linemen is generally a fruitless endeavor because the player's jobs are much different. The majority of short yardage runs go behind the interior linemen, so we would never expect inside running efficiency to match that of when running outside.
We can correct for game situations by monitoring the expected points each offensive lineman helps to contribute to the offense, however.
On a third-and-1 play, for example, a 2 yard rush dramatically increases expected points, generally in the range of .70, as compared to a loss of 0.28 expected points for a 2-yard gain on first and 10.
Now, utilizing this measurement, here are what the grades for the Dallas offensive line was for the first 4 games:
LT Tyron Smith 4.08 YPC
LG Nate Livings 3.25 YPC
C Ryan Cook 2.57 YPC
RG Mackenzy Burnadeau 3.58 YPC
RT Doug Free 4.94 YPC
Even here, there are discrepancies arriving...At first glance, it appears that Doug Free has been the Cowboys' most efficient run blocker in 2012. The truth is that he has actually been struggling some at run blocking.
In week 1, he was at the point of attack on DeMarcco Murray's 48 yard scamper, but the right tackle actually didn't do very much on that play. If that play is removed, then the average yielded for Free slides down to a 2.07 YPC. One play significantly alters the indicators being observed.
Now, if we factor game situations into the mix, however, we obtain more accurate results regarding each linemen's run blocking performance.
In terms of expected points, Smith has been the Cowboys' top run blocker, and it isn't even close.
Up until this Raven's game, has lost expected points while running behind every other Dallas offensive lineman.
Simply stated, only runs behind Smith at the point of attack haven't been detrimental to the offense.
Of the Cowboys' 67 designed runs on the season, only 23 (34%) have increased their odds of scoring on that particular drive. On first and 10, just 11 of their 38 runs (28.9%) have gone for more than 4 yards, thus increasing expected points.
The other 37 of the Cowboys' first-and-10 plays have been passes (meaning that Garrett has been remarkably balanced on first down.)
The point being, that prior to the Ravens' game, the Dallas running game needed to up and get going.
This past game, Dallas dominated the clock for 40 minutes of the game. In addition, the Cowboys accumulated 227 yards on the ground. So that needs to be observed now as well. That will change the tone and directions of all of the above considerations as well.
To be competitive in the NFC East, the Cowboys needed to come through this 5-game, post bye-week period, with a collective record of with wins in 3 of those games. That would give the Dallas team, a collective record of 5-4, and with a strong stretch of home games to finish the season, a strong stance from which to be highly competitive. Now, 3-2 may not sound like much, but this is an especially brutal stretch against what many consider four of the league's top 10 teams. *(source Jeff Sullivan)
Now, touching back upon directions...
The Cowboys have found a variety of ways to flush productive drives through four weeks of the season. All of these have nothing to do with the foot of Dan Bailey.
Prior to this past weekend, Dallas sat at 16th in the league in total offense. But only Jacksonville had fewer points per game. The Cowboys were putting themselves in position to score, but failing to get points on the board when they reached their opponent's territory.
In the season opener, the Cowboys tallied 24 points on the five drives they moved into Giant's territory. Since then, and prior to the Ravens' game, they had tallied 40 points in 19 trips past midfield in their last three as follows:
16 points in 8 trips against Tampa Bay
17 points in 7 trips against Chicago
With only 10 to 11 drives a game, one understood why Jason Garrett was preaching that the Cowboys needed to be able to finish when they approached the Red Zone.
As the first down(s) production improves, so will the third down success rates as well...as the Ravens' game has shown.
I could have extended this posting greatly, and added details of player developments, but I will add to my intended purpose a bit here:
Tyron Smith provides insight into a player along that offensive line of Dallas. Allow his responses to form a picture here...
*(taken from an article provided by Doug Ward, Star Magazine)
The 6-5, 308 pound Tyron Smith is warm and freindly, even offering up a courtesy laugh when he is told the best way for a novice to appreciate his new position is by watching The Blind Side.
'As every housewife knows,' Sandra Bullock memorably says in the Oscar nominated 2009 film, 'the first check you write is for the mortgage, but the second one is for the insurance.' The left tackle's job is to protect the quarterback from what he doesn't see coming.
Smith hates to contradict a performance that won Bullock an Oscar, but the Cowboys' own blindside protector has a more modest appraisal of his job description.
'That was a pretty good movie,' Smith says with a chuckle, 'but it's more a situation where everybody on the line is working together together to help the quarterback. We are always working as one.'
'We are all a family,' Smith said of the Cowboys, 'and we are doing the best we can to protect one another.'
But this brings up an important part for a fan now...and that is this. One should not be seeking win totals, and forget to be watching the team.
*(this is taken from America's Team by Jeff Sullivan)
This quote was provided by Jimmy Johnson:
'Our approach to this game is going to be very simple.'
After a brief pause, Johnson continued, 'Let me ask you this. If I took a 20-foot two-by-four piece of wood and set it down on top of two concrete blocks at the front of a meeting hall, would anyone in this room have any problem with walking across that two-by-four from one end to the other?'
The response from the team was a group of NFC Champions shaking their heads in a horizontal motion with a bit of amusement.
Johnson asked, 'Kenny Norton, could you walk across that two-by-four wityhouty losing your balance right here in front of us?'
'Don't think it would be a problem, Coach,' Norton responded.
'Okay,' said Johnson, 'if I took that same two-by-four and stretched it accross the Twin Towers at the World Trade Center, 100 stories above New York City, would you feel as confident-or as comfortable? Would it be any different for any of you?'
Well, that is what success is all about. It doesn't matter what the distance stretched over is involved. It matters walking the task to completion.
This team is still feeling out it's own dynamics. It is learning the intensive work in combining as a team. But don't forget to set win totals aside some, and watch some of the team itself. One might find delight in what really is going on with our Cowboys. And they have shown some metal and team work to boot.
To start, I'll journey from a point that a fan might have arrived at prior to the start of this season:
But there's a bigger picture here, and it's one that keeps getting missed as Cowboys fans wail and gnash their teeth about every single loss (and even some of the wins). These Cowboys are a work in progress -- a team and a staff and a roster that is piecing itself together and building something it hopes can be sustainable well into the future. You may not want to hear it, and you may not be able to believe it about the Cowboys, but they are in a rebuilding phase right now and much more likely to be a playoff contender in 2013 than this year. So as disappointed as Cowboys fans are about the loss, the penalties, the late-game clock management and everything and everybody else you want to blame, that bigger picture really needs to be the one on which the conversation about the 2012 Cowboys centers.
"We have to win the game, and we didn't do that," coach Jason Garrett said. "But I loved how our team battled. I was proud of our football team today, and we believe that we can grow from this football game."
A growth opportunity. A learning experience. These are valuable things for the Cowboys at this point in their history, and as Cowboys fans you may just have to accept that. Sure, this is the NFL, and the NFC East required only nine victories to win it last year, so nothing's impossible. The Cowboys' schedule gets easier, and if the run game and the offensive line can play the way they played Sunday, they could be much better in the second half of this season. But this season isn't the central focus of the people running the Cowboys right now. What they're looking for is growth and improvement, and they saw plenty of it Sunday.
"A lot of this game, you look at and you say, 'Those are the Cowboys we're talking about,'" tight end Jason Witten said. "Those are the kinds of players and leaders you want to grow with and build on."
He's talking about guys like Sean Lee, who remains a terror on defense, and DeMarco Murray, who ran for 91 yards in the first half before a foot injury forced him out of the game. But lots of Cowboys played very well Sunday, including Dez Bryant, who caught 13 passes for 95 yards, and Felix Jones, who rushed for 92 yards in relief of Murray, and Phil Costa and the rest of an offensive line that's been pulverized all year but on this day looked tough and mean and physical for the first time.
*(By Dan Graziano | ESPNDallas.com)
This immediately goes to the core of current issues, and a fan, due to his nature, wants to deal first in an onslaught of stats and measureables to solidfy a sense of unfullfilled dreams and a Monday morning's sarcasm.
So in just keeping with the 'way,' I bring up the topic of running the numbers and when applied, Staying Ahead Of The Chains.
*(the following is taken from Dallas Cowboys Star Magazine for 8 Oct '12, and written by Jonathan Bales)
When you hear Jason Garrett and other NFL coaches talk about 'staying aheadof the chains,' it means they want to make sure the offense in manageable down and distance scenarios. A 6-yard gain on first down is staying ahead of the chains, for example, as it allows an offensive coordinator to utilize is full assortment of plays.
Since a fan has an undying thirst for new and indicative stats, let's head there a bit now:
One objective way to measure 'staying ahead of the chain' is to track the expected points that every play adds to a drive. In each game situation, an offense can be expected to score a certain number of points on that particular drive. A first and 10 at midfield in normal game conditions, for example, historically has been worth about 2.4 points. That is, teams that find themselves in that situation average about 2.4 points on their drive.
This is exactly the type of game indicator that a Bill Parcells sought out in in his study of the game. That is why he simply stated: Control the clock, field position, and execute to plan. And he believed in just such indicators to point to trends in his own team.
One of the cool things about tracking expected points is that it allows us to MORE accurately measure 'success.'
For example, comparing the yards-per-carry behind various offensive linemen is generally a fruitless endeavor because the player's jobs are much different. The majority of short yardage runs go behind the interior linemen, so we would never expect inside running efficiency to match that of when running outside.
We can correct for game situations by monitoring the expected points each offensive lineman helps to contribute to the offense, however.
On a third-and-1 play, for example, a 2 yard rush dramatically increases expected points, generally in the range of .70, as compared to a loss of 0.28 expected points for a 2-yard gain on first and 10.
Now, utilizing this measurement, here are what the grades for the Dallas offensive line was for the first 4 games:
LT Tyron Smith 4.08 YPC
LG Nate Livings 3.25 YPC
C Ryan Cook 2.57 YPC
RG Mackenzy Burnadeau 3.58 YPC
RT Doug Free 4.94 YPC
Even here, there are discrepancies arriving...At first glance, it appears that Doug Free has been the Cowboys' most efficient run blocker in 2012. The truth is that he has actually been struggling some at run blocking.
In week 1, he was at the point of attack on DeMarcco Murray's 48 yard scamper, but the right tackle actually didn't do very much on that play. If that play is removed, then the average yielded for Free slides down to a 2.07 YPC. One play significantly alters the indicators being observed.
Now, if we factor game situations into the mix, however, we obtain more accurate results regarding each linemen's run blocking performance.
In terms of expected points, Smith has been the Cowboys' top run blocker, and it isn't even close.
Up until this Raven's game, has lost expected points while running behind every other Dallas offensive lineman.
Simply stated, only runs behind Smith at the point of attack haven't been detrimental to the offense.
Of the Cowboys' 67 designed runs on the season, only 23 (34%) have increased their odds of scoring on that particular drive. On first and 10, just 11 of their 38 runs (28.9%) have gone for more than 4 yards, thus increasing expected points.
The other 37 of the Cowboys' first-and-10 plays have been passes (meaning that Garrett has been remarkably balanced on first down.)
The point being, that prior to the Ravens' game, the Dallas running game needed to up and get going.
This past game, Dallas dominated the clock for 40 minutes of the game. In addition, the Cowboys accumulated 227 yards on the ground. So that needs to be observed now as well. That will change the tone and directions of all of the above considerations as well.
To be competitive in the NFC East, the Cowboys needed to come through this 5-game, post bye-week period, with a collective record of with wins in 3 of those games. That would give the Dallas team, a collective record of 5-4, and with a strong stretch of home games to finish the season, a strong stance from which to be highly competitive. Now, 3-2 may not sound like much, but this is an especially brutal stretch against what many consider four of the league's top 10 teams. *(source Jeff Sullivan)
Now, touching back upon directions...
The Cowboys have found a variety of ways to flush productive drives through four weeks of the season. All of these have nothing to do with the foot of Dan Bailey.
Prior to this past weekend, Dallas sat at 16th in the league in total offense. But only Jacksonville had fewer points per game. The Cowboys were putting themselves in position to score, but failing to get points on the board when they reached their opponent's territory.
In the season opener, the Cowboys tallied 24 points on the five drives they moved into Giant's territory. Since then, and prior to the Ravens' game, they had tallied 40 points in 19 trips past midfield in their last three as follows:
16 points in 8 trips against Tampa Bay
17 points in 7 trips against Chicago
With only 10 to 11 drives a game, one understood why Jason Garrett was preaching that the Cowboys needed to be able to finish when they approached the Red Zone.
As the first down(s) production improves, so will the third down success rates as well...as the Ravens' game has shown.
I could have extended this posting greatly, and added details of player developments, but I will add to my intended purpose a bit here:
Tyron Smith provides insight into a player along that offensive line of Dallas. Allow his responses to form a picture here...
*(taken from an article provided by Doug Ward, Star Magazine)
The 6-5, 308 pound Tyron Smith is warm and freindly, even offering up a courtesy laugh when he is told the best way for a novice to appreciate his new position is by watching The Blind Side.
'As every housewife knows,' Sandra Bullock memorably says in the Oscar nominated 2009 film, 'the first check you write is for the mortgage, but the second one is for the insurance.' The left tackle's job is to protect the quarterback from what he doesn't see coming.
Smith hates to contradict a performance that won Bullock an Oscar, but the Cowboys' own blindside protector has a more modest appraisal of his job description.
'That was a pretty good movie,' Smith says with a chuckle, 'but it's more a situation where everybody on the line is working together together to help the quarterback. We are always working as one.'
'We are all a family,' Smith said of the Cowboys, 'and we are doing the best we can to protect one another.'
But this brings up an important part for a fan now...and that is this. One should not be seeking win totals, and forget to be watching the team.
*(this is taken from America's Team by Jeff Sullivan)
This quote was provided by Jimmy Johnson:
'Our approach to this game is going to be very simple.'
After a brief pause, Johnson continued, 'Let me ask you this. If I took a 20-foot two-by-four piece of wood and set it down on top of two concrete blocks at the front of a meeting hall, would anyone in this room have any problem with walking across that two-by-four from one end to the other?'
The response from the team was a group of NFC Champions shaking their heads in a horizontal motion with a bit of amusement.
Johnson asked, 'Kenny Norton, could you walk across that two-by-four wityhouty losing your balance right here in front of us?'
'Don't think it would be a problem, Coach,' Norton responded.
'Okay,' said Johnson, 'if I took that same two-by-four and stretched it accross the Twin Towers at the World Trade Center, 100 stories above New York City, would you feel as confident-or as comfortable? Would it be any different for any of you?'
Well, that is what success is all about. It doesn't matter what the distance stretched over is involved. It matters walking the task to completion.
This team is still feeling out it's own dynamics. It is learning the intensive work in combining as a team. But don't forget to set win totals aside some, and watch some of the team itself. One might find delight in what really is going on with our Cowboys. And they have shown some metal and team work to boot.
