Future Salary Cap Projections

[plasticman]

Over the past ten seasons the salary cap has increased an average of 7,5% annually.

The growth was actually slowed down by a decrease in 2021 due to Covid so this percentage is a rather conservative one for future projections. I will use this percentage because it probably represents the minimum average increase per year.

Therefore, based on an average increase of 7.5%, the salary caps (in millions) for the next five seasons would look something like this:

Year - Cap - Increase
2025 - 274.6 - 19.2
2026 - 295.1 - 20.6
2027 - 317.3 - 22.1
2028 - 341.1 - 23.8
2029 - 366.7 - 25.6

However, if you were to factor out the down year for Covid completely then the average increase is 9% and the future salary caps would project like this:

Year - Cap - Increase

2025- 278.4- 25.1 2026- 303.4- 27.3 2027- 330.8- 29.8 2028- 360.5- 32.4 2029- 393.0- 35.4

So then, I could project that the increases in the salary caps over the next five seasons will total between 111.3 million and 149.9 million. This amount could absorb the increases in pay for one, perhaps two of the three largest contracts presently being considered. However, in order to sign all three, the Cowboys would be forced to decrease the available cap amounts for other future contracts.

 

[Loso86]

Over the past ten seasons the salary cap has increased an average of 7,5% annually.

The growth was actually slowed down by a decrease in 2021 due to Covid so this percentage is a rather conservative one for future projections. I will use this percentage because it probably represents the minimum average increase per year.

Therefore, based on an average increase of 7.5%, the salary caps (in millions) for the next five seasons would look something like this:

Year - Cap - Increase
2025 - 274.6 - 19.2
2026 - 295.1 - 20.6
2027 - 317.3 - 22.1
2028 - 341.1 - 23.8
2029 - 366.7 - 25.6

However, if you were to factor out the down year for Covid completely then the average increase is 9% and the future salary caps would project like this:

Year - Cap - Increase

2025- 278.4- 25.1 2026- 303.4- 27.3 2027- 330.8- 29.8 2028- 360.5- 32.4 2029- 393.0- 35.4

So then, I could project that the increases in the salary caps over the next five seasons will total between 111.3 million and 149.9 million. This amount could absorb the increases in pay for one, perhaps two of the three largest contracts presently being considered. However, in order to sign all three, the Cowboys would be forced to decrease the available cap amounts for other future contracts.

My point, these contracts that our fans are about to see won't be that bad. Yet we always complain about it! Don't gasp at the initial amount as it's not the TRUE amount.

 

[CowboyStar88]

Is there a point where we stop seeing these increases in the salary cap?

 

[John813]

Is there a point where we stop seeing these increases in the salary cap?

Economic slowdown. People stop spending to go to games.

TV contracts will bring in 12.39 bil per year for the next 10 years or so.

Cap is determined by: League Media revenue, NFL Ventures/ Postseason revenue, and Local revenue.
Media revenue is set for the most part.
Local IIRC is tickets, jerseys etc

 

[gtb1943]

Economic slowdown. People stop spending to go to games.

TV contracts will bring in 12.39 bil per year for the next 10 years or so.

Cap is determined by: League Media revenue, NFL Ventures/ Postseason revenue, and Local revenue.
Media revenue is set for the most part.
Local IIRC is tickets, jerseys etc

The TV money is where it is at; not only is it the majority of the money it is where the increase is largely coming from. Gate receipts are a decreasing percentage of the overall total. Merchandising and media is where its at now. Basically as long as the media money keeps increasing so will the cap.
Now the streaming revenue could at one point overtake TV money; hard to tell but certainly possible.
Barring something like COVID or economic collapse (in which case the NFL is over) the cap should keep increasing by about the same percentage each year; that is how the contracts with the networds and the players union work.
Bottom line is that we can pay market price for two of our three big ticket players and still build a good team. As long as the contracts are not too outrageous. I do not see how we can do that signing all three to maximum contracts.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Is there a point where we stop seeing these increases in the salary cap?

Yes.....

TV contracts will bring in 12.39 bil per year for the next 10 years or so.

Cap is determined by: League Media revenue, NFL Ventures/ Postseason revenue, and Local revenue.

If the factors of what determines the salary cap go down.

 

[fivetwos]

Is there a point where we stop seeing these increases in the salary cap?

It’s directly tied to revenue.

Roger’s 50 million a year gig is tied to growing the pot annually, which is why there always some new gimmick.

If there’s an end in sight to that crap, then yes. If not, no.

 

[fivetwos]

The TV money is where it is at; not only is it the majority of the money it is where the increase is largely coming from. Gate receipts are a decreasing percentage of the overall total. Merchandising and media is where its at now. Basically as long as the media money keeps increasing so will the cap.
Now the streaming revenue could at one point overtake TV money; hard to tell but certainly possible.
Barring something like COVID or economic collapse (in which case the NFL is over) the cap should keep increasing by about the same percentage each year; that is how the contracts with the networds and the players union work.
Bottom line is that we can pay market price for two of our three big ticket players and still build a good team. As long as the contracts are not too outrageous. I do not see how we can do that signing all three to maximum contracts.

I think getting in bed with gambling pushed things over the top.

That revenue, plus the added viewership as a result was an extremely big deal.

I don’t wanna be the old man but the end result is players making more money and caring less about winning, which results in an inferior product.

The fans get less and pay more. I wonder where the end is.

 

[Motorola]

Is there a point where we stop seeing these increases in the salary cap?

As long as the league's revenues continue to increase...so will the salary cap.

 

[Parcells4Life]

Supposedly this years jump was an anomaly and teams have been told not to expect a similar jump next year.

 

[rambo2]

My point, these contracts that our fans are about to see won't be that bad. Yet we always complain about it! Don't gasp at the initial amount as it's not the TRUE amount.

They complain about everything.

 

[BotchedLobotomy]

Is there a point where we stop seeing these increases in the salary cap?

Yes, when the NFL fanbase as a whole starts to figure out that we are being fleeced by the NFL.

 

[SoCalBoy]

Is there a point where we stop seeing these increases in the salary cap?

That depends on what happens in November

 

[Bobhaze]

Over the past ten seasons the salary cap has increased an average of 7,5% annually.

The growth was actually slowed down by a decrease in 2021 due to Covid so this percentage is a rather conservative one for future projections. I will use this percentage because it probably represents the minimum average increase per year.

Therefore, based on an average increase of 7.5%, the salary caps (in millions) for the next five seasons would look something like this:

Year - Cap - Increase
2025 - 274.6 - 19.2
2026 - 295.1 - 20.6
2027 - 317.3 - 22.1
2028 - 341.1 - 23.8
2029 - 366.7 - 25.6

However, if you were to factor out the down year for Covid completely then the average increase is 9% and the future salary caps would project like this:

Year - Cap - Increase

2025- 278.4- 25.1 2026- 303.4- 27.3 2027- 330.8- 29.8 2028- 360.5- 32.4 2029- 393.0- 35.4

So then, I could project that the increases in the salary caps over the next five seasons will total between 111.3 million and 149.9 million. This amount could absorb the increases in pay for one, perhaps two of the three largest contracts presently being considered. However, in order to sign all three, the Cowboys would be forced to decrease the available cap amounts for other future contracts.

Nice work here PM. I think too many fans forget that the cap is always expanding as revenues increase, making new contracts that seem bloated, less so in light of a cap that is constantly bloating.

What concerns me as a fan way more than player contracts is the continual increases in ticket prices and ways fans have to pay to watch the NFL. The increases in ticket prices the Cowboys have passed down to their fans usually is much higher than the annual rate of inflation. It is pricing more and more people out. Corporations are becoming the biggest ticket buyers as opposed to common fans.

At some point, the NFL is going to bloat themselves into the balloon popping. Unless they slow their own rate of price increases the common fan is becoming an extinct entity.

 

[gtb1943]

Nice work here PM. I think too many fans forget that the cap is always expanding as revenues increase, making new contracts that seem bloated, less so in light of a cap that is constantly bloating.

What concerns me as a fan way more than player contracts is the continual increases in ticket prices and ways fans have to pay to watch the NFL. The increases in ticket prices the Cowboys have passed down to their fans usually is much higher than the annual rate of inflation. It is pricing more and more people out. Corporations are becoming the biggest ticket buyers as opposed to common fans.

At some point, the NFL is going to bloat themselves into the balloon popping. Unless they slow their own rate of price increases the common fan is becoming an extinct entity.

I hear you. Going to NFL games is already too expensive for a lot of fans; forget about season tickets.
and with the pressure to have pay per view, I do not think it will be long before there are no broadcast games at all. All streaming or something like that.
I can imagine the games being held in empty stadiums - except for the box seats- and the crowd noise is piped in

 

[conner01]

Over the past ten seasons the salary cap has increased an average of 7,5% annually.

The growth was actually slowed down by a decrease in 2021 due to Covid so this percentage is a rather conservative one for future projections. I will use this percentage because it probably represents the minimum average increase per year.

Therefore, based on an average increase of 7.5%, the salary caps (in millions) for the next five seasons would look something like this:

Year - Cap - Increase
2025 - 274.6 - 19.2
2026 - 295.1 - 20.6
2027 - 317.3 - 22.1
2028 - 341.1 - 23.8
2029 - 366.7 - 25.6

However, if you were to factor out the down year for Covid completely then the average increase is 9% and the future salary caps would project like this:

Year - Cap - Increase

2025- 278.4- 25.1 2026- 303.4- 27.3 2027- 330.8- 29.8 2028- 360.5- 32.4 2029- 393.0- 35.4

So then, I could project that the increases in the salary caps over the next five seasons will total between 111.3 million and 149.9 million. This amount could absorb the increases in pay for one, perhaps two of the three largest contracts presently being considered. However, in order to sign all three, the Cowboys would be forced to decrease the available cap amounts for other future contracts.

I expect a faster than normal increase because streamers are going after games which means more revenue thus higher cap

 

[Loso86]

They complain about everything.

Facts

 

[Motorola]

Supposedly this years jump was an anomaly and teams have been told not to expect a similar jump next year.

Indeed; even though a double-digit increase in the salary cap occurred two of the last 3 years (14.08% in 2022, 13.61% this year), a 10% + jump has happened only two more times...9.30% in 2006, and 26.38% in 1998.

 

[gtb1943]

They complain about everything.

and certain posters find an excuse about everything

 

[charron]

Not only that but Dallas doesn't have many long term players after 2025 anyway.

according to overthecap.com they have the following available.
2025 They have 65million in available cap spending
2026 They have 181million to spend
2027 They have 256 million to spend, paying 11 players 2 of which are voided years.