Future Salary Cap Projections

[Loso86]

You have to compare a contract to the year it was made (its first year), not to future years.

And yall waste your time doing it KNOWING the next year and 3rd year it becomes irrelevant soooo!? At that point yall just wanna be mad and upset for nothing when it's not even your money smh

 

[gtb1943]

No, that's just how you view it.

after reading dozens if not more of excuse after excuse for thirty years of no championships, I am willing to bet most here feel that way

 

[805BoysInBlue]

Lol that 50k was AlOT at the time though too!

Lol. The usual suspects in here would've said they shouldn't pay cause he's never won anything. They can all see the future like Ms.Cleo.

 

[gtb1943]

as the salary cap climbs every year so do the players salaries. They are essentially bound to each other. You would not see overall higher salaries for players if the cap would be the same every year.

A higher salary cap does exactly nothing to soften your contract or salary cap problems.

it does help with dead money. Actually about the only thing it really helps with

 

[gtb1943]

Lol. The usual suspects in here would've said they shouldn't pay cause he's never won anything. They can all see the future like Ms.Cleo.

You do remember we were talking about Roger, right?

 

[zekecowboy]

Over the past ten seasons the salary cap has increased an average of 7,5% annually.

The growth was actually slowed down by a decrease in 2021 due to Covid so this percentage is a rather conservative one for future projections. I will use this percentage because it probably represents the minimum average increase per year.

Therefore, based on an average increase of 7.5%, the salary caps (in millions) for the next five seasons would look something like this:

Year - Cap - Increase
2025 - 274.6 - 19.2
2026 - 295.1 - 20.6
2027 - 317.3 - 22.1
2028 - 341.1 - 23.8
2029 - 366.7 - 25.6

However, if you were to factor out the down year for Covid completely then the average increase is 9% and the future salary caps would project like this:

Year - Cap - Increase

2025- 278.4- 25.1 2026- 303.4- 27.3 2027- 330.8- 29.8 2028- 360.5- 32.4 2029- 393.0- 35.4

So then, I could project that the increases in the salary caps over the next five seasons will total between 111.3 million and 149.9 million. This amount could absorb the increases in pay for one, perhaps two of the three largest contracts presently being considered. However, in order to sign all three, the Cowboys would be forced to decrease the available cap amounts for other future contracts.

This is a bad premise. The salary cap is not going to continue going up indefinitely. A bad recession upcoming in 2025 or 2026 is going to slow the increase and potentially even be a decrease. Merchandise and ticket sales will go down. Not sure how TV revenue will be impacted.

 

[Loso86]

Lol. The usual suspects in here would've said they shouldn't pay cause he's never won anything. They can all see the future like Ms.Cleo.

Lol I really hate this site sometimes only because of our delusional and idiotic fans

 

[JoeKing]

Do all the projections you want, we don't really know what the salary cap will be in five years. I give this thread zero credence.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The TV money is where it is at; not only is it the majority of the money it is where the increase is largely coming from. Gate receipts are a decreasing percentage of the overall total. Merchandising and media is where its at now. Basically as long as the media money keeps increasing so will the cap.
Now the streaming revenue could at one point overtake TV money; hard to tell but certainly possible.
Barring something like COVID or economic collapse (in which case the NFL is over) the cap should keep increasing by about the same percentage each year; that is how the contracts with the networds and the players union work.
Bottom line is that we can pay market price for two of our three big ticket players and still build a good team. As long as the contracts are not too outrageous. I do not see how we can do that signing all three to maximum contracts.

By not paying 3 OL and only 2. Smith is going to be looking for an extension starting next year. That is why they let Biadasz and Tyron Smith go.

 

[TwentyOne]

And yall waste your time doing it KNOWING the next year and 3rd year it becomes irrelevant soooo!? At that point yall just wanna be mad and upset for nothing when it's not even your money smh

I am not mad.
But it seems you are.

Contracts dont become irrelevant. You compete in the thrid year with 3rd year contracts of players at other teams.

Dont get it? Sleep a night, think about it. And come back to talk.

 

[TwentyOne]

it does help with dead money. Actually about the only thing it really helps with

It helps at the first view.

But in the end every year you are wasting money on a too high deal you are not competitive with teams that have better deals going.

Because this aint about our own cap space only. A team does not live in a space of its own. You compete against free caps of other teams.

Wether you have 10 mils of cap space tells exactly nothing. In comparison to others your free cap space gets its real market value.

Simple Example:

Dc has 10 mils of free cap.
All other teams have none.
We can sign whomever we want.

Dc hqs 10 mils
All other teams have 20 or more.
We wont be able to sign anybody. Because others have so much more money. Player demands will adapt accordingly.

Thats why every year of a contract counts. A bad contract will stay a bad contract. Regardless of salary cap change in future years.

 

[Loso86]

I am not mad.
But it seems you are.

Contracts dont become irrelevant. You compete in the thrid year with 3rd year contracts of players at other teams.

Dont get it? Sleep a night, think about it. And come back to talk.

Lop I'm not mad at all. Nothing to think about but if you feel that will help you or makes you feel better then go for it big guy! Good luck

 

[rambo2]

after reading dozens if not more of excuse after excuse for thirty years of no championships, I am willing to bet most here feel that way

Poor baby.

 

[plasticman]

This is a bad premise. The salary cap is not going to continue going up indefinitely. A bad recession upcoming in 2025 or 2026 is going to slow the increase and potentially even be a decrease. Merchandise and ticket sales will go down. Not sure how TV revenue will be impacted.

This was an average based on the last ten years which includes an economic downturn due to Covid.

If your predicted recession is going to last ten years then it's irrelevant anyway because there won't be a Dallas Cowboys.

 

[plasticman]

as the salary cap climbs every year so do the players salaries. They are essentially bound to each other. You would not see overall higher salaries for players if the cap would be the same every year.

A higher salary cap does exactly nothing to soften your contract or salary cap problems.

And what are those problems?

Players salaries keep climbing.

The point is what are salaries today going to look like in three years?

 

[FLWarpigrpig]

Player contracts are exceeding cap increases. Also the tv contract increases are pretty much over for a few years.

 

[TwentyOne]

Lop I'm not mad at all. Nothing to think about but if you feel that will help you or makes you feel better then go for it big guy! Good luck

Your initial post sounded like you were. But if you are not, then why are you not able to communicate the way educated people do ?

That means: Give some arguments and not only personal attacks.

I do understtand you dont agree with my point of view. But then give some arguments against mine to explain why you dont agree.
I can handle your insults, no problem at all but they wont change my opinion. And isnt that the reason you answered my post in the first place ? You have another opinion and want to give good arguments for your point of view ? Then what hinders you to do so ?

 

[TwentyOne]

And what are those problems?

Players salaries keep climbing.

The point is what are salaries today going to look like in three years?

Sorry plastic that is not the point. You tried to make the point that the figures of a contract are more or less irrelevant because in for example three years the cap will climb (at least to me your initial post had that vibe). And that is just wrong.

And i dont know if the post you answered to was a post of mine i wrote in reply of your initial post. Some others here took the same argument i mentioned. So sorry if i dont double check.


here is my short and very simple explanation of the or one of the problems:

https://cowboyszone.com/threads/future-salary-cap-projections.524939/page-3#post-13588702

 

[TwentyOne]

And what are those problems?

Players salaries keep climbing.

The point is what are salaries today going to look like in three years?

EDIT: Forget my last anwswer @plasticman. I was in a discussion with others.


I know what your post is about. Or at least i think i did interpret it the right way.

My answer was not meant to question this. It was supposed to point to the real/or one big problem that tends to be overlooked when you post pure numbers without classification.