Future Salary Cap Projections

[rambo2]

and certain posters find an excuse about everything

No, that's just how you view it.

 

[Coogiguy03]

My point, these contracts that our fans are about to see won't be that bad. Yet we always complain about it! Don't gasp at the initial amount as it's not the TRUE amount.

Yeah it's fine now, in 4 more years or so Jefferson will want 50 million a year, still will be the same issue

 

[plasticman]

Nice work here PM. I think too many fans forget that the cap is always expanding as revenues increase, making new contracts that seem bloated, less so in light of a cap that is constantly bloating.

What concerns me as a fan way more than player contracts is the continual increases in ticket prices and ways fans have to pay to watch the NFL. The increases in ticket prices the Cowboys have passed down to their fans usually is much higher than the annual rate of inflation. It is pricing more and more people out. Corporations are becoming the biggest ticket buyers as opposed to common fans.

At some point, the NFL is going to bloat themselves into the balloon popping. Unless they slow their own rate of price increases the common fan is becoming an extinct entity.

I agree. Owning a professional football team used to be a legitimate businessman's way of thanking their communities for their patronage while promoting their company. Ownership wasn't supposed to be profitable, the NFL offices to this day enjoy a tax free status.

This is why we have owner names like Kraft, Hunt, etc.

The NFL wasn't supposed to become a marketable product, In a sense, it was already owned by the fans through a partnership between the team owners and local government. Teams have two names and one of them is the city/area they are supposed to be representing.

Jerry Jones likes to brag about how the franchise was losing millions but that wasn't the reason the team was sold. The previous owners had to sell due to financial issues with their legitimate business which was oil production.

Jerry Jones wasn't the first to turn NFL football into a highly profitable venture. However, he was the one who developed ways to maximize the profits to the extent that owners are mostly billionaires now. Hall of Fame entry was his reward.

Think about it. What great contribution did he make to the game of football? He turned all the owners into billionaires at our expense.

They simply sold to the highest bidders regardless of their degree of loyalty or affiliation to the team or it's community. Tickets were packaged and distributed in a way that made it almost impossible for a middle class "Joe Fan" to get season tickets for himself and his family.

I remember commissioner Pete Roselle promising that games would never be broadcast exclusively on cable or any other form of subscription programming.

One of the first things that Jerry said after he bought the team, and I have to find it on a video, was "No one can own the Cowboys". I swear he said it and I will find the video someday. If anyone knows which video contains this quote please let me know.

 

[Motorola]

It’s directly tied to revenue.

Roger’s 50 million a year gig is tied to growing the pot annually, which is why there always some new gimmick.

If there’s an end in sight to that crap, then yes. If not, no.

NHL, NBA, MLB have been implementing the same formula in a number of ways to match the NFL over the last three decades.

 

[Diehardblues]

It hasn’t been just a football game for a very long time.

The NFL is sports entertainment at the highest level. It’s wayyyyy past time for fans to grasp this brutal reality.

 

[Bobhaze]

I agree. Owning a professional football team used to be a legitimate businessman's way of thanking their communities for their patronage while promoting their company. Ownership wasn't supposed to be profitable, the NFL offices to this day enjoy a tax free status.

This is why we have owner names like Kraft, Hunt, etc.

The NFL wasn't supposed to become a marketable product, In a sense, it was already owned by the fans through a partnership between the team owners and local government. Teams have two names and one of them is the city/area they are supposed to be representing.

Jerry Jones likes to brag about how the franchise was losing millions but that wasn't the reason the team was sold. The previous owners had to sell due to financial issues with their legitimate business which was oil production.

Jerry Jones wasn't the first to turn NFL football into a highly profitable venture. However, he was the one who developed ways to maximize the profits to the extent that owners are mostly billionaires now. Hall of Fame entry was his reward.

Think about it. What great contribution did he make to the game of football? He turned all the owners into billionaires at our expense.

They simply sold to the highest bidders regardless of their degree of loyalty or affiliation to the team or it's community. Tickets were packaged and distributed in a way that made it almost impossible for a middle class "Joe Fan" to get season tickets for himself and his family.

I remember commissioner Pete Roselle promising that games would never be broadcast exclusively on cable or any other form of subscription programming.

One of the first things that Jerry said after he bought the team, and I have to find it on a video, was "No one can own the Cowboys". I swear he said it and I will find the video someday. If anyone knows which video contains this quote please let me know.

Outstanding post! Wish I could give 100 likes.

 

[Diehardblues]

When are fans going to realize sports leagues are just like any other entertainment.

These athletes who are the star attractions are going to fetch headliners roles contracts.

We don’t have a problem with actors making tens of millions per movie or a musician making hundreds of millions on tour.

 

[Loso86]

Yeah it's fine now, in 4 more years or so Jefferson will want 50 million a year, still will be the same issue

Facts and the cap will support it unfortunately. I do know at some point it's going to implode and deflate on itself

 

[Diehardblues]

I agree. Owning a professional football team used to be a legitimate businessman's way of thanking their communities for their patronage while promoting their company. Ownership wasn't supposed to be profitable, the NFL offices to this day enjoy a tax free status.

This is why we have owner names like Kraft, Hunt, etc.

The NFL wasn't supposed to become a marketable product, In a sense, it was already owned by the fans through a partnership between the team owners and local government. Teams have two names and one of them is the city/area they are supposed to be representing.

Jerry Jones likes to brag about how the franchise was losing millions but that wasn't the reason the team was sold. The previous owners had to sell due to financial issues with their legitimate business which was oil production.

Jerry Jones wasn't the first to turn NFL football into a highly profitable venture. However, he was the one who developed ways to maximize the profits to the extent that owners are mostly billionaires now. Hall of Fame entry was his reward.

Think about it. What great contribution did he make to the game of football? He turned all the owners into billionaires at our expense.

They simply sold to the highest bidders regardless of their degree of loyalty or affiliation to the team or it's community. Tickets were packaged and distributed in a way that made it almost impossible for a middle class "Joe Fan" to get season tickets for himself and his family.

I remember commissioner Pete Roselle promising that games would never be broadcast exclusively on cable or any other form of subscription programming.

One of the first things that Jerry said after he bought the team, and I have to find it on a video, was "No one can own the Cowboys". I swear he said it and I will find the video someday. If anyone knows which video contains this quote please let me know.

We must always remember professional sports owners are just key holders . They own a franchise which can be taken away unlike owning other business. Yes, even when owners have been forced out they still receive fair price .

Fans and sponsors are who ultimately have fueled the economic wealth of professional sports. It all begun with broadcasting games on TV. In the early years it was usually local businessman who wanted to bring entertainment to their community . It wasn’t a profitable situation for most.

And it was a part time job for most players . They needed regular jobs rest of the year. But it was only available to a very small segment of society who could attend the games.

There was some early radio broadcast before TV but it wasn’t as profitable . I recall when all the games weren’t broadcasted on TV. And the NFL largely shared college stadiums which was much more popular than the pros.

In 1959 Clint Murchison purchased rights to Dallas franchise for a mere $50,000. And sold it 25 years later for 85 million. In 1959 much of America could have purchased the Cowboys. Now only multi billionaires. It’s not just a football league for the local fans anymore.

 

[Coogiguy03]

Facts and the cap will support it unfortunately. I do know at some point it's going to implode and deflate on itself

It will have to I'm sorry!! There should be a certain capped number for players at a position this is getting out of hand

 

[plymkr]

Over the past ten seasons the salary cap has increased an average of 7,5% annually.

The growth was actually slowed down by a decrease in 2021 due to Covid so this percentage is a rather conservative one for future projections. I will use this percentage because it probably represents the minimum average increase per year.

Therefore, based on an average increase of 7.5%, the salary caps (in millions) for the next five seasons would look something like this:

Year - Cap - Increase
2025 - 274.6 - 19.2
2026 - 295.1 - 20.6
2027 - 317.3 - 22.1
2028 - 341.1 - 23.8
2029 - 366.7 - 25.6

However, if you were to factor out the down year for Covid completely then the average increase is 9% and the future salary caps would project like this:

Year - Cap - Increase

2025- 278.4- 25.1 2026- 303.4- 27.3 2027- 330.8- 29.8 2028- 360.5- 32.4 2029- 393.0- 35.4

So then, I could project that the increases in the salary caps over the next five seasons will total between 111.3 million and 149.9 million. This amount could absorb the increases in pay for one, perhaps two of the three largest contracts presently being considered. However, in order to sign all three, the Cowboys would be forced to decrease the available cap amounts for other future contracts.

Thank you for the research

 

[Loso86]

It will have to I'm sorry!! There should be a certain capped number for players at a position this is getting out of hand

I agree with that. No way average QBs should get paid close to what Mahomes gets etc

 

[805BoysInBlue]

My point, these contracts that our fans are about to see won't be that bad. Yet we always complain about it! Don't gasp at the initial amount as it's not the TRUE amount.

Because Roger Staubach played for 50k a season they want current players to do the same

 

[Loso86]

Because Roger Staubach played for 50k a season they want current players to do the same

Lol that 50k was AlOT at the time though too!

 

[Reality]

Is there a point where we stop seeing these increases in the salary cap?

These things happen in cycles and ultimately the NFL's popularity will peak and eventually decline.

There are many reasons that people will blame when that eventually happens, but the most likely cause will simply be the attrition of the NFL fan base due to age.

In years past, the NFL enjoyed a fan based that perpetuated itself through parents passing on their fandoms to their children who then passed it on to their children.

That was more viable in the past though as the younger generations did not have an endless supply of entertainment options available at any given time like they do now.

These days, grabbing and holding the younger demographic's attention for any length of time is very difficult even for entertainment that is targeted specifically for them.

The NFL will likely have to adapt and change considerably if it hopes to maintain it's popularity in the future.

My guess is that at some point (many years from now) the NFL will transition to virtual players instead of physical players and they will make the bulk of their money from NFL organized and supported gambling.

 

[Killerinstinct]

I spend zero dollars on nfl merchandise and I refuse to pay to watch on the oddball channels. I have been a fan for about 45 years. It means less to me every year.

 

[Parcells4Life]

Not only that but Dallas doesn't have many long term players after 2025 anyway.

according to overthecap.com they have the following available.
2025 They have 65million in available cap spending
2026 They have 181million to spend
2027 They have 256 million to spend, paying 11 players 2 of which are voided years.

there’s 29 free agents next year so that 65 million won’t go very far.

 

[charron]

there’s 29 free agents next year so that 65 million won’t go very far.

Enough to sign who they want.

 

[TwentyOne]

My point, these contracts that our fans are about to see won't be that bad. Yet we always complain about it! Don't gasp at the initial amount as it's not the TRUE amount.

You have to compare a contract to the year it was made (its first year), not to future years.

 

[TwentyOne]

Over the past ten seasons the salary cap has increased an average of 7,5% annually.

The growth was actually slowed down by a decrease in 2021 due to Covid so this percentage is a rather conservative one for future projections. I will use this percentage because it probably represents the minimum average increase per year.

Therefore, based on an average increase of 7.5%, the salary caps (in millions) for the next five seasons would look something like this:

Year - Cap - Increase
2025 - 274.6 - 19.2
2026 - 295.1 - 20.6
2027 - 317.3 - 22.1
2028 - 341.1 - 23.8
2029 - 366.7 - 25.6

However, if you were to factor out the down year for Covid completely then the average increase is 9% and the future salary caps would project like this:

Year - Cap - Increase

2025- 278.4- 25.1 2026- 303.4- 27.3 2027- 330.8- 29.8 2028- 360.5- 32.4 2029- 393.0- 35.4

So then, I could project that the increases in the salary caps over the next five seasons will total between 111.3 million and 149.9 million. This amount could absorb the increases in pay for one, perhaps two of the three largest contracts presently being considered. However, in order to sign all three, the Cowboys would be forced to decrease the available cap amounts for other future contracts.

as the salary cap climbs every year so do the players salaries. They are essentially bound to each other. You would not see overall higher salaries for players if the cap would be the same every year.

A higher salary cap does exactly nothing to soften your contract or salary cap problems.