Getting to Know Patrick Peterson

[MarionBarberThe4th]

I don't see any scenario that allows them to overtake us on the SOS tie breaker. You are correct.

Then why are we talking about ties between teams well ahead of us?

Buffalo and Cincy have a SOS much better than ours. Denver's is about the same

We lose, 2 or 3 of them win and we move up.

 

[SDogo]

Then why are we talking about ties between teams well ahead of us?

Our SOS and Buffalo's and Cincy's are pretty far.

Denver's is about the same

We lose, 2 or 3 of them win and we move up.

It's not as simple as just looking at the team above you. You have to figure every game every team plays that was on their schedule comes into play when your talking about the SOS tie breaker.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

We lose, they win. The rest of the weeks games would have to unfold in an unusual manner for the SOS to change so dramatically, no?

What am I missing here? If we lose and they win, we're both 5-11 and their SoS is .570 and quite a bit higher than ours, which means they lose the tiebreaker, right, because they're assumed to be a better team because of the stronger schedule?

 

[SDogo]

What am I missing here? If we lose and they win, we're both 5-11 and their SoS is .570 and quite a bit higher than ours, which means they lose the tiebreaker, right, because they're assumed to be a better team because of the stronger schedule?

I dont think your missing anything, I think we got 3 people trying to say almost the same thing but in totally different way.

After a closer look it's "possible" based on unlike opponents and the remaining games that if all hell broke loose in the NFL next week the Bengals SOS could drop enough or Dallas SOS rise enough that we could lose the tie breaker by .010% but the scenario's is so crazy it's not even worth worrying about.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

If the Cardinals win there are actually several scenario's that allow us to win the SOS tie breaker with SF. This game is very important because it's impossible for us to win the SOS tie breaker with Arizona.

For us to overtake SF, we need our opponents to win 7 less games this week.

Most of the games will cancel out so it's probably impossible for SF to pick up 7 or even 6 wins.

SF vs ARZ = Dal vs PHI (each team pick up 3 games assuming philly and zona win)
STL vs SEA = NYG vs WSH(each team picks up 2 games)
Oak vs KC = Jax vs Hou (each team pick up 1 game)
SD vs DEN = Ten vs IND(each team picks up 1 game)
CAR vs ATL = DET vs MIN (each team picks up 1 game

The 2 games that matter are
NO vs TB
GB vs CHI

best case scenario is TB wins (we didn't play them) and Green Bay wins (they share that opponent), causing SF's opponents to gain 2 wins to our 1. Even if MIN beats PHI, that breaks us even (we each played MIN) and if ATL beats NO, they gain 1 more win.

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

For us to overtake SF, we need our opponents to win 7 less games this week.

Most of the games will cancel out so it's probably impossible for SF to pick up 7 or even 6 wins.

SF vs ARZ = Dal vs PHI (each team pick up 3 games assuming philly and zona win)
STL vs SEA = NYG vs WSH(each team picks up 2 games)
Oak vs KC = Jax vs Hou (each team pick up 1 game)
SD vs DEN = Ten vs IND(each team picks up 1 game)
CAR vs ATL = DET vs MIN (each team picks up 1 game

The 2 games that matter are
NO vs TB
GB vs CHI

best case scenario is TB wins (we didn't play them) and Green Bay wins (they share that opponent), causing SF's opponents to gain 2 wins to our 1. Even if MIN beats PHI, that breaks us even (we each played MIN) and if ATL beats NO, they gain 1 more win.

Im almost done calculating this stuff b/c its starting to lose all meaning but I think that sounds right.

I had SF's opponents at 130 -126.
And looking at the Broncos opponents schedule thats not happening either. I finished the season and their SOS was an even .500
and our opponents were 135-121.

So Carolina, Arizona or SF, and Denver. Thats 3 ahead of us, but w/ Buffalo and Cincy winning in week 17 I think we can get #4.